Question for the experts

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bga1

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I'm just a fan. Not an X and O's guy. I watch the games and I watch a lot of basketball but I don't know what coaches know. I have been posting a fair amount that I would like to see Tubby show some creativity and flexibility in his thinking. One guy I would love to see him give serious minutes to is Armelin.

Saturday when the lineups were announced, my heart sunk. Big lineup again. Here we go again- Stubborn Tubby - that's the feeling I had. The previous game Chip and Hollins had shown that they create a lot more activity on the offensive side and Chip especially is proactive when he is on offense. Meanwhile Tubby plays three guys that get the ball and appear to have been ordered to do nothing with it for at least 5 seconds. Sampson, Iverson and Williams are those guys. They play with no confidence and they react so slowly on offense that the defense is easily able to reset itself whenever they get the ball

Saturday Chip played 6 minutes. Hit a three, but also got into the lane and was called for a charge. He makes mistakes but it sure appears to me that every player we have makes glaring mistakes. The guys Tubby likes to play are tentative on both sides of the ball often leaving wide open three point shots on defense. Meanwhile, when Armelin is out there things look a lot more active to me.

Here's the question (finally): What is it about guys like Chip that Tubby doesn't like? To some extent I think Joseph had this same strike against him. Tubby didn't seem to much like Westy either. Chip doesn't seem to have the attitude issues that Westbrook and later Joseph had. What's the deal? Furthermore, if we don't give guys that have the agressive mentality that Chip has some rope to make mistakes and then attone, how will we attract scorers in the future, guys that are not afraid to win the game when it's on the line?
 

I'm not an expert, but I honestly think it's his defense.

He's probably better than Hollins offensively, but he kept losing his man on the wing so much in the zone, giving up open 3's, that Tubby yanked him out after his 3rd time in about 2 min where he lost his man. If he played defense like Hollins, I think he'd be getting a lot of his minutes.

Tubby is old school, you could score 50 pts, but if you can't find your man on defense and your mistakes cost us, you'll be riding the pine. I don't think it's a personal thing with Chip. Westbrook & Joseph, on the other hand, appeared to openly defy Tubby and his offensive play-calling, gave him dirty looks, and just appeared sour towards him.

I don't sense the same mentality towards Chip, just more of a frustration that he is bad defensively at this point.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
I'm not an expert, but I honestly think it's his defense.

He's probably better than Hollins offensively, but he kept losing his man on the wing so much in the zone, giving up open 3's, that Tubby yanked him out after his 3rd time in about 2 min where he lost his man. If he played defense like Hollins, I think he'd be getting a lot of his minutes.

Tubby is old school, you could score 50 pts, but if you can't find your man on defense and your mistakes cost us, you'll be riding the pine. I don't think it's a personal thing with Chip. Westbrook & Joseph, on the other hand, appeared to openly defy Tubby and his offensive play-calling, gave him dirty looks, and just appeared sour towards him.

I don't sense the same mentality towards Chip, just more of a frustration that he is bad defensively at this point.
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I think you have Tubby pegged to the tee right there. Tubby doesn't play to win- he plays not to lose.

I watched Chip closely on defense because I know that's what gets Tubby's shorts in a knot. He had a play over in the corner where there were two Michigan guys isolated against just him. The ball went to the wing. Chip left the corner to get to the ball. The ball then went right back to the corner for an open three- it was missed but it was an open three in Chips area. That's the only thing I saw during his big 6 minute stint. Maybe I missed something else. But still it seems as though EVERY PLAYER WE HAVE makes these mistakes while only those who are offensive minded seem to sit on the pine for doing it. I mean for heaven sakes we allow close to 30 open three point shots per game.

Bottom line- this still begs the question- how do you get players that are good, agressive offensive players to come here? We can't site Andre Hollins because he blossumed as an offensive juggernaut after he signed here.
 

Surprise

What surprised me Saturday was seeing Dawson in the game before Chip.

:confused:
 

bga, I think you provide some of the best hoops analysis on this board, pedigree or not. You have excellent observations and insights.

If it was about defense, Ralph would not be in there and Austin Hollins would. I watched both players closely on Saturday, and Ralph was so inactive, out of position and slow to react, it made me ill. In contrast, I came out of Saturday's game feeling that, of all the players on the roster, Hollins seems to understand the ball line defense better than anyone. His positioning and playing of the angles was very effective, almost uncanny; he never lost his man or left a wide open shooter.

When I read your post, it was eerie. I had the EXACT same reaction in Section 212. In fact, I even remarked to my mates, 'here we go again' and that this starting lineup hasn't worked and isn't going to work, no matter how much prayer or force of personality Tubby throws at it. It is indeed stubbornness; that's the only conclusion I can come to. I have come to believe that different lineups and combinations of players on the floor would have made a difference in the last few games. The teams that have beat us couldn't match up with our size, but they beat us because their five on the floor gave them better balance and gave US matchup problems that we couldn't deal with. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: balance out there is the key.
 


Personally, I think Tubby really struggles playing anyone who "freelances" on offense. Guys like Bostick, Joseph and now Chip. These guys have some very creative talents when it came to scoring. But with that, came some uncertainty which Tubby just seem to abhor and some turnovers which Tubby wants to avoid at all costs. I think these type of guys have very short leashes with Tubby - which is why Chip plays so little.

I originally thought that it was defensive liabilities, as ShowGoldyLove comments above, that lead to the low playing time. But I am no longer so sure. We play some guys big minutes right now that have just as many defensive deficiencies. They may be different (some don't block out, some fail to cover help side, some can't stay in front of their man, etc), but all are defense deficiencies just the same. So why do some play and other not?

I think Tubby just strongly prefers a very structured offense and, when push comes to shove, plays the guys that follow the structured offense line.

But I see 2 concerns with highly structured offensives in today's game:

1 - any coach worth his salt with average talent should be able, especially at crunch time, to slow down a highly structured offense and force 3rd and 4th options. I see this happening to us - especially late in games. Instead of getting Trevor down low one on one, we get Trevor doubled and Ralph uncontested above the FT line. There is a pretty big difference in success rate between those 2 options. I think that is what as caused us to struggle so much at the end of games - like every team - our 3rd and 4th options are just not as good as our 1st and 2nd. Unfortunately, in our case, 3rd and 4th are quite a bit worse than 1st and 2nd.

2 - a 2nd concern which is far more worrisome. The game is changing and the more freelance style is currently in vogue both in HS and in college. It has really changed basketball toward favoring more creative players, who play more one on one trying to break down the defense, for their own offense, for kick out 3's for teammates, and feeds underneath. There are examples everywhere. Look back 10 years at how Duke played then and compare it to how Duke plays today. Coach K has adapted. But I sense Tubby does not seem to want to adapt - continuing to strongly prefer the more structured approach. I think that will ultimately negatively impact our long term recruiting - kids are going to natural be attracted to the style of play they are most comfortable and familiar with. That will not be our style which I think will decrease our chances with the best kids.

I hope I am wrong with all these comments. But as someone who played and coached a ton, this is what I see.
 

I'd really love to see Chip play more as well. Austin's shooting is so bad right now that even though he plays well on D and attacks the rack, I'd love to see Chip get some minutes. Also, I don't agree with the rip on Rodney. I thought Rodney played well for most of the game saturday. Don't forget, he was playing out of position as well. I think he did a good job, and his new-found shooting touch is a hopeful sign.
 

Bad Gopher said:
bga, I think you provide some of the best hoops analysis on this board, pedigree or not. You have excellent observations and insights.

If it was about defense, Ralph would not be in there and Austin Hollins would. I watched both players closely on Saturday, and Ralph was so inactive, out of position and slow to react, it made me ill. In contrast, I came out of Saturday's game feeling that, of all the players on the roster, Hollins seems to understand the ball line defense better than anyone. His positioning and playing of the angles was very effective, almost uncanny; he never lost his man or left a wide open shooter.

When I read your post, it was eerie. I had the EXACT same reaction in Section 212. In fact, I even remarked to my mates, 'here we go again' and that this starting lineup hasn't worked and isn't going to work, no matter how much prayer or force of personality Tubby throws at it. It is indeed stubbornness; that's the only conclusion I can come to. I have come to believe that different lineups and combinations of players on the floor would have made a difference in the last few games. The teams that have beat us couldn't match up with our size, but they beat us because their five on the floor gave them better balance and gave US matchup problems that we couldn't deal with. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: balance out there is the key.
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Bad- There's a lot of fans in my section that are just plain fed up with what they are seeing on the court. The worst thing that happened was that Tubby got some reinforcement for his theory in the Iowa victory where a completely hapless Iowa team folded up against the giant lineup. This was fools gold, as Iowa couldn't hit the broad side of a barn that night which facilitated the strategy nicely. He has gone back to the well ever since and continues to come up dry. There is a deja vu effect to earlier in the year when he was continually sacrificing a 5 minute stretch of the first half with the all freshman line change. It was driving everyone nuts but game after game it would happen. I guess that's just the way it is when you have 30 years of experience and your stuff has always worked and always will and will never be changed.

Hollins is going to be a better version of Damian Johnson by the time he's a junior or senior. And that's high praise because Damian Johnson was great for us. He is a much, much better player than Rodney right now even though Rodney is a Cadillac athlete and all world dunker.
 

UST82Gopher said:
Personally, I think Tubby really struggles playing anyone who "freelances" on offense. Guys like Bostick, Joseph and now Chip. These guys have some very creative talents when it came to scoring. But with that, came some uncertainty which Tubby just seem to abhor and some turnovers which Tubby wants to avoid at all costs. I think these type of guys have very short leashes with Tubby - which is why Chip plays so little.

I originally thought that it was defensive liabilities, as ShowGoldyLove comments above, that lead to the low playing time. But I am no longer so sure. We play some guys big minutes right now that have just as many defensive deficiencies. They may be different (some don't block out, some fail to cover help side, some can't stay in front of their man, etc), but all are defense deficiencies just the same. So why do some play and other not?

I think Tubby just strongly prefers a very structured offense and, when push comes to shove, plays the guys that follow the structured offense line.

But I see 2 concerns with highly structured offensives in today's game:

1 - any coach worth his salt with average talent should be able, especially at crunch time, to slow down a highly structured offense and force 3rd and 4th options. I see this happening to us - especially late in games. Instead of getting Trevor down low one on one, we get Trevor doubled and Ralph uncontested above the FT line. There is a pretty big difference in success rate between those 2 options. I think that is what as caused us to struggle so much at the end of games - like every team - our 3rd and 4th options are just not as good as our 1st and 2nd. Unfortunately, in our case, 3rd and 4th are quite a bit worse than 1st and 2nd.

2 - a 2nd concern which is far more worrisome. The game is changing and the more freelance style is currently in vogue both in HS and in college. It has really changed basketball toward favoring more creative players, who play more one on one trying to break down the defense, for their own offense, for kick out 3's for teammates, and feeds underneath. There are examples everywhere. Look back 10 years at look at how Duke played then and compare it to how Duke plays today. Coach K has adapted. But I sense Tubby does not seem to want to adapt - continuing to strongly prefer the more structured approach. I think that will ultimately negatively impact our long term recruiting - kids are going to natural be attracted to the style of play they are most comfortable and familiar with. That will not be our style which I think will decrease our chances with the best kids.I hope I am wrong with all these comments. But as someone who played and coached a ton, this is what I see.
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This.

Every kid in the top 200, heck maybe the top 500 wants to play in the NBA someday. This is what they see on TV and it's the way they want to play. If you are going to play a structured offense I think you then have to look at recruiting a different type of athlete. I think you have to look at shooters and fundamentally advance players who don't necessarily have the NBA on their minds. Think Bo Ryan here (a coach who has a better, much better offensive scheme). But we are recruiting athletes who lack some of the basic fundamentals and attempting to throw them into a tightly wound offensive scheme.
 




I'm no expert, either. I agree that Armellin needs to play more and that everybody else is making mistakes, and whatever Armellin is doing is no worse than anybody else. I do disagree about Tubby playing not to lose. You can play to win and have the philosophy that playing tough, hard-nosed defense what you need to do to win. I don't know if defense is Armellin's problem or not in Tubby's eyes.

I have been thinking it might be his offense. Chip is very aggressive, and with those kind of players sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. And maybe Chip's "bad" is too much for Tubby. There's a fine line between a guy who makes something happen and a ball hog. In my opinion, Westbrook crossed that line last year. Devoe straddled that line, too, earlier this year. Armellin, as a freshman, maybe hasn't learned when he should and shouldn't make his move; maybe he doesn't have quite the skills to finish enough for Tubby. But it does appear to me that players like that make Tubby uncomfortable.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I'm no expert, either. I agree that Armellin needs to play more and that everybody else is making mistakes, and whatever Armellin is doing is no worse than anybody else. I do disagree about Tubby playing not to lose. You can play to win and have the philosophy that playing tough, hard-nosed defense what you need to do to win. I don't know if defense is Armellin's problem or not in Tubby's eyes.
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Agreed. Boston Celtics won the title via defense. Lakers won it when they started to care about defense.

Hates Monikers said:
I have been thinking it might be his offense. Chip is very aggressive, and with those kind of players sometimes you have to take the good with the bad. And maybe Chip's "bad" is too much for Tubby. There's a fine line between a guy who makes something happen and a ball hog. In my opinion, Westbrook crossed that line last year. Devoe straddled that line, too, earlier this year. Armellin, as a freshman, maybe hasn't learned when he should and shouldn't make his move; maybe he doesn't have quite the skills to finish enough for Tubby. But it does appear to me that players like that make Tubby uncomfortable.
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Chip is a below average ball handler and gets lost on defense occasionally. I understand why Tubby doesn't play him more. He is good as a spark on offense and that is about it right now. There is no doubt in my mind he will improve, he seems to have a great work ethic.

Devoe played just as much as Al did (for the most part) and Westbrook started every game. Even if Tubby yelled at them, I don't think he had any intention to pull them. I don't believe Tubby has any problem with being aggressive, but you need to be smart. I feel that Tubby demands intelligence. Knowing when to be aggressive, when to pass, etc. I felt Devoe showed a very good job (offensively) against Wisconsin of that, jump shot was just very off that night.
 

2 - a 2nd concern which is far more worrisome. The game is changing and the more freelance style is currently in vogue both in HS and in college. It has really changed basketball toward favoring more creative players, who play more one on one trying to break down the defense, for their own offense, for kick out 3's for teammates, and feeds underneath. There are examples everywhere. Look back 10 years at how Duke played then and compare it to how Duke plays today. Coach K has adapted. But I sense Tubby does not seem to want to adapt - continuing to strongly prefer the more structured approach. I think that will ultimately negatively impact our long term recruiting - kids are going to natural be attracted to the style of play they are most comfortable and familiar with. That will not be our style which I think will decrease our chances with the best kids.

I hope I am wrong with all these comments. But as someone who played and coached a ton, this is what I see.[/QUOTE]


I agree. I also question the ball-line defense. The ball-line D is to limit/deny inside scoring and make the O shoot more outside shots(from my understanding). With the advent of the 3pt shot has said defense become out-dated? Seems every team has good 3pt shooters(except us).
 



station19 said:
I agree. I also question the ball-line defense. The ball-line D is to limit/deny inside scoring and make the O shoot more outside shots(from my understanding). With the advent of the 3pt shot has said defense become out-dated? Seems every team has good 3pt shooters(except us).
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Tubby won a national title (post 3-point line) with the ball-line defense. He also had a lot of success at Kentucky with it. It requires long, athletic, very smart players - think, Tayshaun Prince and Rajon Rondo.
 

Nice series of thoughtful posts. I sort of thought there was too much infatuation with Chip until the Michigan State game. He could make a spectacular play, and you could certainly see the potential, but he made enough mistakes so I could see why Tubby didn't trust him. The spark he provided the second half against Michigan State really opened my eyes. I was even glad he took the 3 at the end. Maybe came a little quick, but it was the best shot opportunity we've had towards the end of a close game maybe all season. More importantly, he had the guts to take it. It was at least a good chance to regain the lead. Overstating it, but after Saturday I'm thinking it's like Tubby prefers lack of aggressiveness to a lack of judgement. He knows he's probably not going to win with either approach, but he's still more comfortable with the guy who tries to stay in his system.

What all this means for the long run, I have no frickin' clue. Still boils down to without all of the hits there has been the last two years, we wouldn't be having this discussion at all.
 

We are in every game we play until the last 3-4 minutes...Tubby's system works consistently well, even with our depleted line up. The numbers don't support the bitching...until it gets under 4 minutes and the system tends to break down. That's when a tough one on one matchup makes all the difference in a game...and right now, we just don't have a guy that can shut down their best scorer on defense and can win a game one on one for us on offense. Look at our teams over the last three years...Westbrook, Nolan, Devoe all were those players...right now...NO ONE!

Tubby tried to use Armelin in this roll against MSU...remember we are down 2 with 1:30 left on clock and Armelin's defender falls to the ground...instead of going to the hoop, Chip jumps back for a three...which he misses. Fr mistake for sure...one that Devoe or Westy or Nolan doesn't make...change that play and have Armelin drive for a lay up or foul or maybe foul and make and the game changes. Instead a long rebound leads to a run out layup for MSU and we are down 4. Game over.

Im just not in the opinion that Tubby is doing it wrong...we just don't have the players to close out games and the Fr haven't shown that they can...anymore than Hoff and Mbakwe and RSIII. We were screwed when Nolan went down and Devoe left...and no coaching is gonna change the line up we have to play with.
 

GopherinPhilly said:
We are in every game we play until the last 3-4 minutes...Tubby's system works consistently well, even with our depleted line up. The numbers don't support the bitching...until it gets under 4 minutes and the system tends to break down. That's when a tough one on one matchup makes all the difference in a game...and right now, we just don't have a guy that can shut down their best scorer on defense and can win a game one on one for us on offense. Look at our teams over the last three years...Westbrook, Nolan, Devoe all were those players...right now...NO ONE!

Tubby tried to use Armelin in this roll against MSU...remember we are down 2 with 1:30 left on clock and Armelin's defender falls to the ground...instead of going to the hoop, Chip jumps back for a three...which he misses. Fr mistake for sure...one that Devoe or Westy or Nolan doesn't make...change that play and have Armelin drive for a lay up or foul or maybe foul and make and the game changes. Instead a long rebound leads to a run out layup for MSU and we are down 4. Game over.

Im just not in the opinion that Tubby is doing it wrong...we just don't have the players to close out games and the Fr haven't shown that they can...anymore than Hoff and Mbakwe and RSIII. We were screwed when Nolan went down and Devoe left...and no coaching is gonna change the line up we have to play with.
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I think Tubby should definitely face some criticism for some of the mistakes he's made this year. However, in general, I agree that the main problem is not Tubby, but are the consequence of losing a contributor in the frontcourt (who would ensure that Dawson wouldn't get time), the starting point guard who was the spark for the offense and was able to win close games down the stretch early in the year for the team with D and getting into the lane, as well as losing the only other legit point guard on the squad, as well as one of the few players who could create their own shot and was a leader down the stretch last year to drugs and reprehensible character. Tubby's made some mistakes. He'd admit it, I'm sure. But the main problem has been those issues.
 

Chip is starting to sound like a backup QB. Has to be better than the starter cuz in the few minutes he played he completed a pass. Chip is a horrible off the ball defender and that's why he doesn't play more. His offense is not at the "Devo" level so Tubby won't play him. That being said Dawson is not a Big10 player but works hard on the defensive end.

The Gophers need a lot to improve no question but the Gophers aren't going win games if they don't hold teams to the "60's". They don't have anyone consistently capable of scoring in crunch time or for that matter create their own shot. Rodney has tried at times as well as others but clearly it's a shortcoming.

And speaking of knowing your role, the student section is a complete joke this year. Beyond the occassionally vulgar chant, they are the weakest student section in the big10. About 1 minute or so to go in the second half down a couple the student section sits on their hands for the most part. Pretty sure I heard "boos" coming from them aimed at the Gophers as well during the game. I get they expected more from the team but they are just "phoning it in" now.
 

I don’t think one must be an expert to say something about Chip and his playing time. So, I may be as qualified to say a few things about him. He does have potential. In my opinion, however, he right now is not “consistent” enough either offensively or defensively to play major minutes though I appreciate the excitement he can create.

PT should not be based solely on offense or on defense. Though there must be other variables in determining PT, it is generally about overall contribution. For instance, if one’s defensive liability outweighs his offensive contribution, no major minutes should be warranted for him. Your defense, to exaggerate a little, is only as good as your weakest link. Also, the weakest link tends to demoralize other players, which was one of the reasons that some players including Bostick did not get as much PT as some people think they should.

Like many others in the Hole, I find Tubby’s half-court offense problematic. But, I have no problem with his defense first philosophy as it should provide better long term consistency in overall performance. I think we are not there yet to attract enough talents to play a flash style. Unless we want Calipari, in my opinion, we need someone to build up the program first. Is Tubby right for the job? I assume people may not agree about it.
 

scher215 said:
Agreed. Boston Celtics won the title via defense. Lakers won it when they started to care about defense.



Chip is a below average ball handler and gets lost on defense occasionally. I understand why Tubby doesn't play him more. He is good as a spark on offense and that is about it right now. There is no doubt in my mind he will improve, he seems to have a great work ethic.

Devoe played just as much as Al did (for the most part) and Westbrook started every game. Even if Tubby yelled at them, I don't think he had any intention to pull them. I don't believe Tubby has any problem with being aggressive, but you need to be smart. I feel that Tubby demands intelligence. Knowing when to be aggressive, when to pass, etc. I felt Devoe showed a very good job (offensively) against Wisconsin of that, jump shot was just very off that night.
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Chip is a below average ballhandler? Where do you get that from? I hear it on here but the fact of the matter is that his turnovers per minute played are really low. He turns it over far less than Maverick for instance. He takes more risks than most on the team yet stands fairly well on turnover stats:

Player Turnovers per minute played
Hoff .058 to/min
Chip .058
Rodney .060
Austin .063
Maverick .114

I would also argue that it's tougher to keep your turnovers low when you are playing 5-10 minutes a game. You have to jump into the game cold and get into the flow.
 

Duthasmon Smith said:
Chip is starting to sound like a backup QB. Has to be better than the starter cuz in the few minutes he played he completed a pass. Chip is a horrible off the ball defender and that's why he doesn't play more. His offense is not at the "Devo" level so Tubby won't play him. That being said Dawson is not a Big10 player but works hard on the defensive end.

The Gophers need a lot to improve no question but the Gophers aren't going win games if they don't hold teams to the "60's". They don't have anyone consistently capable of scoring in crunch time or for that matter create their own shot. Rodney has tried at times as well as others but clearly it's a shortcoming.

And speaking of knowing your role, the student section is a complete joke this year. Beyond the occassionally vulgar chant, they are the weakest student section in the big10. About 1 minute or so to go in the second half down a couple the student section sits on their hands for the most part. Pretty sure I heard "boos" coming from them aimed at the Gophers as well during the game. I get they expected more from the team but they are just "phoning it in" now.
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I agree on the vulgarity- no place for it. However, I don't fault the students one bit. The team played lousy and rarely gave the students any material to work with. I think the boos were directed toward Tubby quite frankly, not the players. Tubby and this team look liek they are "phoning it in" to me. That's 10 times more disturbing. The students pay. The players and coaches are recipients of scholarships and money respectively. In the case of the coach- big money.
 

IMO, the chances of a big time recruit walking into that environment and thinking the gophers are the right decision are real slim right now. We've got two nice recruits coming in next year a lot of pressure on them to produce right away.
 

Duthasmon Smith said:
IMO, the chances of a big time recruit walking into that environment and thinking the gophers are the right decision are real slim right now. We've got two nice recruits coming in next year a lot of pressure on them to produce right away.
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The place was packed to the rafters on Saturday for a team that hasn't had a sniff of competing for a Big Ten championship since the mythical 1996-1997 season. This isn't on the fans. This is not exciting ball that we are playing and the coach is behaving like a funeral parlor director. If Tubby gets re-engaged, Walker, Hollins, Oto and some of the other players come back, turn this thing around next year and play their hearts out the fans will be right there with them.
 



station19 said:
And with interior players often trying to cover 3 positions.
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That's why I think we need to go smaller. Rebounding hasn't been our issue, it's been giving up open shots b/c our bigs don't have the quickness to get out there.

What do we have to lose now? I say we change it up...see how it goes...
 

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