Purdue Game Thoughts Thread


MNVCGUY

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What are the red flags that you see with Sparty?
They went the quick fix route in the portal and they tried to do it again this year. Worked for them last year, not so much this year so far.

Will be interesting to see how patient they are since they paid Tucker top dollar, they are going to want to see MSU competing with OSU and Michigan in order to justify how much they are paying him.
 

Tully55

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Too early in the season to wonder which win would help us more. I still see the Badgers as a bigger threat than Illinois though, and plus, it's the Badgers. Rare occasion I will root for Bret to get a W.
I agree with your assessment with one exception. While I do want Illinois to beat the skunks, I will never root for Burt B.
 

MNVCGUY

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I'm going to disagree with you here. I think this is a sneaky game that Minnesota needs to watch out for. Purdue can be a dangerous team and just like PJ's quest to slay the Iowa dragon, Brohm desperately wants to beat PJ. Purdue didn't look good against the Owls on Saturday but their other 2 losses were to Penn State and Syracuse in the waning moments and both those teams are undefeated. Purdue is a dangerous club and I would shy away from the 10.5 points we're laying. Our last 3 wins against then have all been one possession games.

I expect a dogfight this week.
If O'Connell plays....it could be a battle. Without him I just don't see it.
 

noamfromm

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They went the quick fix route in the portal and they tried to do it again this year. Worked for them last year, not so much this year so far.

Will be interesting to see how patient they are since they paid Tucker top dollar, they are going to want to see MSU competing with OSU and Michigan in order to justify how much they are paying him.
Their high school recruiting is great right now. It's not like they are only taking transfers.
 


MNVCGUY

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Their high school recruiting is great right now. It's not like they are only taking transfers.
Nebraska's high school recruiting has been great as well. Doesn't matter how the players look on paper if they don't get it done on the field.

I'm not saying MSU isn't getting good players, I honestly haven't really paid that close of attention to them overall. I just know that there were some real smoke and mirrors involved with how they did last year and they may have jumped the gun a little in giving Tucker the contract they did.

Maybe it works out for them but given what they paid they are going to want to see championship level results and clearly they are not that team this year. But it is still early in his run there.
 

Gophergrandpa

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I always fear Purdue's creative, high-scoring offense. But, this year, our defense should, even in a free-wheeling, wide-open game, be able to hold Purdue to 21 or worst case 28, because, although AOC + Charlie Jones = points, our secondary is very good and we have a pass rush. But, given how Fleck game plans, this won't be a free-wheeling, wide-open, passing-crazy, shoot out game.

If things go right, it will follow the MSU model. Our offense will hold the ball for extensive drives, run + pass drives (based on Purdue's defensive sets). We will plan to severely limit the time Purdue's offense has to spend on the field, reducing their numerical opportunities to score. The Gopher offense, in this scenario, is very much a facet of our defense. It keeps the Purdue offense on the sidelines.

If the plan holds, come mid-third quarter, Purdue's thin, gassed defense won't be able to stop confidence-sapping 8 minute drives by the Gophers. And Purdue's frustrated offense will be trying to overcome a well-rested, rotationally deep, Gopher defense.

Even with this "choke off Purdue's offense" approach, Tanner will throw for 250+ yards and 3 touchdowns because KC (1) aims on every down to exploit the weak part of the defense (and has the talent available at all positions to do it) and (2) seems as comfortable with the pass setting up the run as vice-versa (again, because he has the talent available to do it).

I think that Charlie Jones is way more of a threat than any other Purdue receiver; scheme to take him out of the game and Purdue is a lesser offense even if AOC plays. But, bottom line, if the Gopher offense plays well, and our Defense has a plan to stop Charlie Jones, then Purdue, with its injuries and questionable depth, shouldn't have the stuff needed to overcome a strong, deep Gopher team ... unless the Gophers come out flat and give up a few early TDs (ala MSU's defense), or there are fluke plays or giant Gopher mistakes elsewhere. Given the heart, fortitude and depth of this Gopher team, I fear these kinds of game-changing defects less than in prior years.

Go Gophers!
 
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noamfromm

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Nebraska's high school recruiting has been great as well. Doesn't matter how the players look on paper if they don't get it done on the field.

I'm not saying MSU isn't getting good players, I honestly haven't really paid that close of attention to them overall. I just know that there were some real smoke and mirrors involved with how they did last year and they may have jumped the gun a little in giving Tucker the contract they did.

Maybe it works out for them but given what they paid they are going to want to see championship level results and clearly they are not that team this year. But it is still early in his run there.
That's not really comparable right now as Frost's recruits didn't make it to the field. A coaches first year recruiting with early signing period is generally poor and it was 2020 so I will give Tucker a pass. Last year and this year's class are both ranked in the 20s.
 
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MNVCGUY

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That not really comparable right now as Frost's recruits didn't make it to the field. A coaches first year recruiting with early signing period is generally poor and it was 2020 so I will give Tucker a pass. Last year and this year's class are both ranked in the 20s.
I fully agree that Tucker needs time. I just wonder if he will get it based on the contract they gave him. He is in a tough spot in that there probably won't be a ton of patience if the team struggles.
 

denguegopher

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The only team I feel that can potentially beat us if we don't help them is Penn State and I am not even sold on that one. We can lose any game on our schedule if we play poorly, but if this team goes out and executes the way it is capable of executing, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin can't beat us.
Exactly, we have to be able to win when we play poorly, or at least when things are not clicking.
 

noamfromm

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I fully agree that Tucker needs time. I just wonder if he will get it based on the contract they gave him. He is in a tough spot in that there probably won't be a ton of patience if the team struggles.
I think the contract they gave him guarantees that he will get the time he needs. It's fully guaranteed so if they want him out they need to find someone's deep pockets to get it done.
 

PoockItInfor6

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They went the quick fix route in the portal and they tried to do it again this year. Worked for them last year, not so much this year so far.

Will be interesting to see how patient they are since they paid Tucker top dollar, they are going to want to see MSU competing with OSU and Michigan in order to justify how much they are paying him.
What’s interesting to me is that I know the dad of one of their freshmen players… and he said the same thing on the quick fix, and that has impacted culture, created a me first attitude where guys are more worried about getting themselves to NFL and said that there is not appropriate focus on developing the Hs recruits…
 



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What’s interesting to me is that I know the dad of one of their freshmen players… and he said the same thing on the quick fix, and that has impacted culture, created a me first attitude where guys are more worried about getting themselves to NFL and said that there is not appropriate focus on developing the Hs recruits…
So is Chase transferring to Minnesota next year?
 

Bob_Loblaw

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What are the red flags that you see with Sparty?
First, just the circumstances surrounding Mel Tucker's massive raise.

Tucker had 1 season at Colorado. It was their best in awhile, but he was only 5-7 at Colorado. Then he moves onto Michigan State and goes 2-5.

The 2021 season, Michigan State had a nice year but everything lined up perfectly for them. Their crossover games were NW, Purdue (L) and Nebraska (W in OT). They did beat Michigan in a great game, but they are literally 5-6 plays away from having 5 more losses. Wins matter, so I'm not taking anything away from them, but that team's record was much better than their talent (IMO). The other thing about the 2021 team is that they were really led by a slew of COVID transfers including their best player by far.

For the 2022 season, they made a number of changes to their coaching staff - mostly on the defensive side of the ball (which was awful in 2021 too). The team hasn't really gelled or developed at all. They tried to catch lightening in a bottle again with transfers, but these ones aren't as good. There has been discussion of players and coaches not getting along (players and players not getting along) and it is starting to feel like exactly what it is. It's a program that was built through the portal which can work but it also comes with a risk of being less of a real team.

Now, this could just be one down season at Michigan State and we could be making a mountain out of a mole hill. However, that kind of comes with the territory when you get paid $95 million over 10 years as a coach. To put it into perspective, he makes more than Ryan Day and there were some whispers of Ryan Day being on the hot seat after going 11-2 and dominating the Rose Bowl last year.

Sorry if that was way longer than you wanted.
 

GopherWeatherGuy

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I'm going to disagree with you here. I think this is a sneaky game that Minnesota needs to watch out for. Purdue can be a dangerous team and just like PJ's quest to slay the Iowa dragon, Brohm desperately wants to beat PJ. Purdue didn't look good against the Owls on Saturday but their other 2 losses were to Penn State and Syracuse in the waning moments and both those teams are undefeated. Purdue is a dangerous club and I would shy away from the 10.5 points we're laying. Our last 3 wins against then have all been one possession games.

I expect a dogfight this week.

I don't think Purdue has as good of offensive or defensive players this season as they've had the last few, plus they are beat up. They got Penn St the first game of the year which is always tricky for both teams. I also think Penn St is a little overrated right now. Syracuse is a decent team, but nothing special. FAU is a bad team.

I'm fully convinced this is the best Gophers team in my lifetime, better than 2019. While that game ended up finishing a 1 score win, the Gophers were up 38-17 and fell asleep a bit in the 4th quarter. I would hammer the over as I think they win by 3 or 4 TDs. If O'Connell doesn't play, Purdue may not score until garbage time, if at all.
 

Replacement Gopher

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I want to zero in on this one line because it is exactly how I feel about our team when I look at the teams remaining on our schedule.

The only team I feel that can potentially beat us if we don't help them is Penn State and I am not even sold on that one. We can lose any game on our schedule if we play poorly, but if this team goes out and executes the way it is capable of executing, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Wisconsin can't beat us.

Getting lost in the play of the offense is our defense....they are phenomenal and so friggin sound. MSU has issues on defense but their offense has some really talented receivers and an experienced QB yet could do nothing against us. Purdue's offense scares people but we have the kind of defense that matches up really well against them. And if O'Connell can't go they have no shot against our D because the backup was not impressive against a very mediocre FAU team.

I could be wrong but if we avoid a lot of key injuries, I will be shocked if we lose any games this year in which we don't beat ourselves with turnovers and mistakes. Straight up we simply have too balanced of an offense and too strong of a defense to lose to most teams in the Big Ten based on what I have seen so far this season.

We are easily the best team in the West right now and I don't even think it is that close.
I agree with all of this, and I felt the same
way last year after we led OSU going into the half but injuries in that game caught up to us - we were down two safeties, but I will add an additional way we can lose: out-schemed. We’ve watched this happen to Smith and Sanford, but not to Rossi and Kirk C. But we do need to play rivalry Big Ten games to win, not to avoid losing, which I kind of felt happened a few times in 2019 and was the standard with Mason.
 

Panthadad2

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I agree with all of this, and I felt the same
way last year after we led OSU going into the half but injuries in that game caught up to us - we were down two safeties, but I will add an additional way we can lose: out-schemed. We’ve watched this happen to Smith and Sanford, but not to Rossi and Kirk C. But we do need to play rivalry Big Ten games to win, not to avoid losing, which I kind of felt happened a few times in 2019 and was the standard with Mason.

Rossi and Kirk were out-schemed in the 2019 Wisconsin game. Badly. Largely because WI adjusted schemes to the bad weather while MN did not (and because the refs allowed WI to rape MN receivers). I thought MN had more talent than WI that year. I hope they learned from that game.
 

Replacement Gopher

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I know this is semantics, but Mel Tucker is paid Nick Saban type of money and there are some major red flags with that program.
I honestly can’t believe they paid him that money after one good year and two years at the school. He was at Colorado for a single year. I would have been willing to risk keeping him in his current contract for another year thinking he would not take his third head coaching job in four years. Not paying him $95 million guaranteed after this year unless things turn around in a hurry.
 
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Stan

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Great thread all around. I think if we are still dialed in we will win by 2 TDs but this Purdue team has talent and will pull a surprising win in BTW, hope not at our expense.
 

Replacement Gopher

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Rossi and Kirk were out-schemed in the 2019 Wisconsin game. Badly. Largely because WI adjusted schemes to the bad weather while MN did not (and because the refs allowed WI to rape MN receivers). I thought MN had more talent than WI that year. I hope they learned from that game.
Fair.
I agree they were more conservative, but I thought that was based on direction from PJ, as it seemed the same way in that years Iowa game and then of course we decided to punt from WIs 37 on 4th and two.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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Great thread all around. I think if we are still dialed in we will win by 2 TDs but this Purdue team has talent and will pull a surprising win in BTW, hope not at our expense.
Yeah, I think O'Connell is a really good QB and if he plays, it'll be a tough out. He has a dynamic WR and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly.
 

RememberMurray

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We don't have any pushovers in the B1G. Any team can beat any other team.

In 2022, the Gophers find themselves in an unfamiliar situation — they will be picked to win most, if not all, of their remaining games. In some games they may be prohibitive favorites. Other teams will be pumped up for the chance to make their team's reputation by taking the Gophers down.

In 2021, Minnesota lost two games as heavy favorites. That was a very harsh, brutal learning experience for this team. They haven't forgotten those two games. I see a new dedication and determination to never let that happen again. Look at the way the Gophers played the non-conference schedule: they coldly, clinically destroyed inferior opponents. No mercy. Laser focus.

That's what they'll need to continue to do over the course of the remaining schedule.
 

Gopher 461

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Great thread. At the end of the day, after all the analysis, one game at a time. Execute the game plan on O, D, and ST. Play hard-nosed football in front of your sell-out Homecoming crowd. Relax AFTER the game and heal up during bye week.
 

btowngopher

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This game should be won comfortably. Purdue is not a very talented team, they will struggle to make a bowl game.
 


Plato

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I just watched the Purdue/ FAU game on the BTN and cannot perceive how MN could lose to Purdue.
 

#2Gopher

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We don't have any pushovers in the B1G. Any team can beat any other team.

In 2022, the Gophers find themselves in an unfamiliar situation — they will be picked to win most, if not all, of their remaining games. In some games they may be prohibitive favorites. Other teams will be pumped up for the chance to make their team's reputation by taking the Gophers down.

In 2021, Minnesota lost two games as heavy favorites. That was a very harsh, brutal learning experience for this team. They haven't forgotten those two games. I see a new dedication and determination to never let that happen again. Look at the way the Gophers played the non-conference schedule: they coldly, clinically destroyed inferior opponents. No mercy. Laser focus.

That's what they'll need to continue to do over the course of the remaining schedule.
I believe the 2021 comments are stinging in their heads.
 

noamfromm

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Purdue went toe to toe with Penn State and only lost to Syracuse because of two dumb penalties at the end of the game. If O'Connell plays, that offense is good enough to beat the Gophers if we have an off-game.

No letdowns, gotta come ready.
Bad coaching is as bad coaching does. While he's had high highs, he loses a game with the ball up by 3 with 2 minutes left.
 

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Glad I’ll be watching it in person and I don’t have to hear Beth Mowen’s she-man voice saying the wrong stats on ESPN2 👍
 




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