Power ratings for 8 teams still with a shot at the CFP

[SelectionSunday]

North Carolina is an extreme longshot, but I'll keep Tar Heels on the board because they're a potential 1-loss Power 5 champion.

Formula is:

Number of Division I wins (FCS opponents = 1/2)
+
Wins by Defeated Opponents
Divided by Games Played
=
Power Rating

CFP Contenders Power Ratings
1. Michigan State (11-1, 7.0 power rating) -- vs. Iowa (B1G title game)
2. Oklahoma (11-1, 6.916 PR) -- regular season complete
3. Alabama (11-1, 6.708 PR) -- vs. 10-2 Florida (SEC title game)
4. Clemson (12-0, 6.541 PR) -- vs. 11-1 North Carolina (ACC title game)
5. Ohio State (11-1, 6.166 PR) -- regular season complete
6. Stanford (10-2, 5.75 PR) -- vs. 8-4 USC (Pac 12 title game)
7. Iowa (12-0, 5.708 PR) -- vs. 11-1 Michigan State (B1G title game)
8. North Carolina (11-1, 5.083 PR) -- vs. 12-0 Clemson (ACC title game)

Best 3 Wins
Michigan State -- @ 11-1 Ohio State, @ 9-3 Michigan, 9-3 Oregon
Oklahoma -- @ 10-2 Baylor, @ 10-2 Oklahoma State, 10-2 TCU
Alabama -- @ 9-3 Georgia, vs. 9-3 Wisconsin, 8-3 LSU
Clemson -- 10-2 Notre Dame, 10-2 Florida State, @ 8-4 Miami-Florida
Ohio State -- @ 9-3 Michigan, @ 6-6 Virginia Tech, 8-4 Northern Illinois
Stanford -- 10-2 Notre Dame, @ 8-4 USC, 8-4 UCLA
Iowa -- @ 10-2 Northwestern, @ 9-3 Wisconsin, 8-4 Pitt
North Carolina -- @ 8-4 Pitt, @ 7-5 NC State, 8-4 Miami-Florida

Likely/Possible Top-25 Wins With Next CFP Rankings
Michigan State (3) -- @ Michigan, @ Ohio State, Oregon
Oklahoma (3 or 4) -- @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, @ Tennessee (?)
Alabama (1 to 4) -- LSU, @ Georgia (?), Tennessee (?), vs. Wisconsin (?)
Clemson (2) -- Florida State, Notre Dame
Ohio State (1) -- @ Michigan
Stanford (1 or 2) -- Notre Dame, @ USC (?)
Iowa (1 or 2) -- @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin (?)
North Carolina (0)

 

[Sparlimb]

Interestingly, UNC has a good argument if they beat Clemson. My projection.

1. Clemson
2. OU
3. Alabama
4. Michigan St

B1G championship winner is in. ACC champ is probably in. Pac 12 out unless Florida can beat Bama. OU in for sure.

 

[SelectionSunday]

If Alabama and/or Clemson lose

I think 2 spots are locked up:

1 Oklahoma
2 Iowa/Michigan State winner

Alabama and Clemson are in if they win, obviously. If either or both lose, then it gets interesting for spots 3 and/or 4. North Carolina or Florida won't get in even if they win. Carolina won't get in if for no other reason they played not 1 but 2 FCS opponents.

Then it becomes these teams for spots 3 and/or 4:

1 1-loss non-ACC champ Clemson
2 1-loss non-BIG champ Ohio State
3 2-loss non-SEC champ Alabama
4 2-loss Pac 12 champ Stanford (assuming it wins)

In this scenario (Alabama & Clemson both lose) I'd be inclined to give spot #3 to Clemson and spot #4 to Stanford.

 

[mkAz]

Having no championship game seems to benefit the Big 12 this season. I hate seeing them rewarded for that.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

If Alabama or Clemson lose, then Ohio State has a legit chance.

 

[SelectionSunday]

In a pinch, I'd take 1-loss Clemson over OSU

If Alabama or Clemson lose, then Ohio State has a legit chance.

I agree with that. OSU will be right there, but if it came down to those 2 for the last spot, I'd take Clemson's resume over Ohio State's.

To me Clemson's divisional title + wins over Notre Dame and FSU (albeit both at home) trumps OSU's win @ Michigan, the Buckeyes' only truly impressive win. Only thing that might change my mind on that is if Clemson got thumped by UNC.

 

[JZsportswhiz]

Having no championship game seems to benefit the Big 12 this season. I hate seeing them rewarded for that.

Agreed. But OU did beat OKST, TCU, and Baylor, two of which were on the road.

 

[tjgopher]

North Carolina is an extreme longshot, but I'll keep Tar Heels on the board because they're a potential 1-loss Power 5 champion.

Formula is:

Number of Division I wins (FCS opponents = 1/2)
+
Wins by Defeated Opponents
Divided by Games Played
=
Power Rating

CFP Contenders Power Ratings
1. Michigan State (11-1, 7.0 power rating) -- vs. Iowa (B1G title game)
2. Oklahoma (11-1, 6.916 PR) -- regular season complete
3. Alabama (11-1, 6.708 PR) -- vs. 10-2 Florida (SEC title game)
4. Clemson (12-0, 6.541 PR) -- vs. 11-1 North Carolina (ACC title game)
5. Ohio State (11-1, 6.166 PR) -- regular season complete
6. Stanford (10-2, 5.75 PR) -- vs. 8-4 USC (Pac 12 title game)
7. Iowa (12-0, 5.708 PR) -- vs. 11-1 Michigan State (B1G title game)
8. North Carolina (11-1, 5.083 PR) -- vs. 12-0 Clemson (ACC title game)

Best 3 Wins
Michigan State -- @ 11-1 Ohio State, @ 9-3 Michigan, 9-3 Oregon
Oklahoma -- @ 10-2 Baylor, @ 10-2 Oklahoma State, 10-2 TCU
Alabama -- @ 9-3 Georgia, vs. 9-3 Wisconsin, 8-3 LSU
Clemson -- 10-2 Notre Dame, 10-2 Florida State, @ 8-4 Miami-Florida
Ohio State -- @ 9-3 Michigan, @ 6-6 Virginia Tech, 8-4 Northern Illinois
Stanford -- 10-2 Notre Dame, @ 8-4 USC, 8-4 UCLA
Iowa -- @ 10-2 Northwestern, @ 9-3 Wisconsin, 8-4 Pitt
North Carolina -- @ 8-4 Pitt, @ 7-5 NC State, 8-4 Miami-Florida

Likely/Possible Top-25 Wins With Next CFP Rankings
Michigan State (3) -- @ Michigan, @ Ohio State, Oregon
Oklahoma (3 or 4) -- @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, @ Tennessee (?)
Alabama (1 to 4) -- LSU, @ Georgia (?), Tennessee (?), vs. Wisconsin (?)
Clemson (2) -- Florida State, Notre Dame
Ohio State (1) -- @ Michigan
Stanford (1 or 2) -- Notre Dame, @ USC (?)
Iowa (1 or 2) -- @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin (?)
North Carolina (0)

Quite a rudimentary power rankings. Gives the same weight to a team's actual win as well as an opponent's win. Never seen it given equal footing. In other words, in your formula, Michigan State gets "one point" for beating Ohio State and Michigan State also gets an equal "one point" for Central Michigan beating Monmouth. That seems like a strange weighting formula. It also totally and completely fails to take into account or penalize for bad losses (MSU and Oklahoma have easily the worst losses of any contending teams).

All in all, it seems a formula that clearly benefits Michigan State the most, so I see why you created it. (I'm just busting your chops SS)

 

[tjgopher]

I think 2 spots are locked up:

1 Oklahoma
2 Iowa/Michigan State winner

Alabama and Clemson are in if they win, obviously. If either or both lose, then it gets interesting for spots 3 and/or 4. North Carolina or Florida won't get in even if they win. Carolina won't get in if for no other reason they played not 1 but 2 FCS opponents.

Then it becomes these teams for spots 3 and/or 4:

1 1-loss non-ACC champ Clemson
2 1-loss non-BIG champ Ohio State
3 2-loss non-SEC champ Alabama
4 2-loss Pac 12 champ Stanford (assuming it wins)

In this scenario (Alabama & Clemson both lose) I'd be inclined to give spot #3 to Clemson and spot #4 to Stanford.

Why Stanford over a 1-loss OSU or a 1-loss Iowa? I don't think you can give a 2-loss team a bid when there are multiple 1-loss teams from major conferences available.

In addition to having an additional loss, Stanford lost at NW, while Iowa won by 30 points there. I know there isn't a transitive property, but that's hard to get past in my mind.

 

[SelectionSunday]

All good points. Stanford mostly because of the conference champ thing.

And I don't think Sparty needs my flawed power rankings to validate its resume. It stacks up with any of the remaining contenders, even with the bad loss to Nebraska.