Keep in mind too that the strength of schedule prediction can quickly fall apart. Last year, preseason, it seemed like Purdue on the road would have been a very tough game. Purdue fell apart and stunk all year. Also, Northwestern played very well despite losing key players to injuries, Iowa played bad early and great late, and Wisconsin did not perform as well as predicted (even though they beat us).
That being said, I could see our currently strong looking schedule weaken quite a bit if two strong looking teams that we play fall in the crapper (maybe MSU has a rough season without Ringer; maybe tOSU if Pryor has a really bad sophomore slump).
On the other hand, average/lesser teams like Air Force, Northwestern, Sconny, Syracuse, Purdue, could end up not being "who we thought they were" and kill our record.