There are some impressive Morgan, Johnson, and Bateman analytics in this piece. For example, did you know Morgan is their highest graded FBS QB, when facing pressure? Neither did I. The Minnesota section is below. If you want to read about Utah and Baylor, click the link.
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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Prior to the 2019 season, Minnesota’s projected win total opened at 6.5 wins, according to FanDuel. The Golden Gophers started off the year with nine straight wins and subsequently made their way to eighth in the CFP rankings. While they did end up losing two of their last three games (both to ranked teams) and missed a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, Minnesota knocked off an undefeated Penn State and caused anarchy in the college football landscape.
This improbable turnaround all starts with the passing offense that was drastically improved from a season ago. Freshman Zack Annexstad began the 2018 season as the Gophers’ signal-caller and was below average with a 53.0 PFF grade, but after an injury suffered during Week 8, redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan finished the year off and ended up with an average PFF grade of 61.8. The two young quarterbacks were expected to compete for the starting job prior to the year, but Annexstad had another injury, which gave Morgan the reigns of the offense. Based off last year, no one expected to see the Golden Gophers passing offense go from the 85th-best in expected points added per play at -.070 to the sixth-best at .295.
Moreover, Morgan finished the 2019 season with the sixth-highest passing grade in college football at 90.0 — and that’s even including a slow start out the gate. Two of Morgan’s first three games were his lowest-graded games of the year. From Week 5 on, Morgan ranked behind only Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and LSU’s Joe Burrow in PFF passing grade at 91.7. Being in the same company as the likely first overall picks in the next two NFL drafts is pretty impressive, eh?
The most notable change in Morgan’s play was when he was passing to his first read. Last season, Morgan was often quick and jumped the gun on some of these passes. In turn, we saw him force a lot of throws, resulting in a big-time throw rate of just 1.5% and turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2% passing to his first read. This season, his field vision had undeniably improved and overall just been a complete 180. Passing to his first read, Morgan has improved his big-time throw rate to 5.2% and turnover-worthy play rate to 3.7%. Overall, his first-read passing grade improved from 66.5 to 91.0. There’s still room for improvement as there have been a few turnover-worthy passes made to a predetermined read, but you can’t ask for much else as Morgan certainly shattered expectations in this big jump of his.
Along with that, Morgan’s ability to make a play under duress is now apparent. When he is facing pressure, no one has a higher PFF grade in the FBS. Yes, you read the right. Morgan recorded a higher grade under pressure than the stars like Burrow, Lawrence, et al. Morgan is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the FBS this season and paved the way to Minnesota’s success in 2019.
We’d be remiss if we didn’t bring up one of the best wide receiver duos in all of college football of Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. Both finished the season ranked in the top 10 at their position in PFF receiving grade and were just one of two duos to rank in the top 20 (LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson is the other such duo). The two are some of the best route runners in all of college football and get open at an inane rate. On top of that, they’ve carried the rare trait of being able to do get separation and also remain effective in contested situations.
All eyes were on Johnson heading into his senior season in 2019 to see if he could maintain his pristine 2018 breakout campaign, and he definitely did. As shown in the figure above, Johnson is filthy in contested catch situations. No wide receiver has a higher PFF grade on contested targets, catching 15 of 21 contested targets this season.
The other half of the elite Golden Gopher duo, true sophomore Bateman, had himself a breakout year and was named one of PFF’s most underrated players in college football. In addition to ranking in the top 10 in PFF receiving grade, Bateman has produced an explosive receiving play that resulted a 15-plus yard gain on 38.9% of his targets. That ranks behind only Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III. As we’ve covered elsewhere, the three biggest things you want to see from a wide receiver are: getting separation with his route running, winning in contested situations and threatening after the catch. Johnson and Bateman are two of the few in college football that can do all three at a high level.
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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
Prior to the 2019 season, Minnesota’s projected win total opened at 6.5 wins, according to FanDuel. The Golden Gophers started off the year with nine straight wins and subsequently made their way to eighth in the CFP rankings. While they did end up losing two of their last three games (both to ranked teams) and missed a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game, Minnesota knocked off an undefeated Penn State and caused anarchy in the college football landscape.
This improbable turnaround all starts with the passing offense that was drastically improved from a season ago. Freshman Zack Annexstad began the 2018 season as the Gophers’ signal-caller and was below average with a 53.0 PFF grade, but after an injury suffered during Week 8, redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan finished the year off and ended up with an average PFF grade of 61.8. The two young quarterbacks were expected to compete for the starting job prior to the year, but Annexstad had another injury, which gave Morgan the reigns of the offense. Based off last year, no one expected to see the Golden Gophers passing offense go from the 85th-best in expected points added per play at -.070 to the sixth-best at .295.
Moreover, Morgan finished the 2019 season with the sixth-highest passing grade in college football at 90.0 — and that’s even including a slow start out the gate. Two of Morgan’s first three games were his lowest-graded games of the year. From Week 5 on, Morgan ranked behind only Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and LSU’s Joe Burrow in PFF passing grade at 91.7. Being in the same company as the likely first overall picks in the next two NFL drafts is pretty impressive, eh?
The most notable change in Morgan’s play was when he was passing to his first read. Last season, Morgan was often quick and jumped the gun on some of these passes. In turn, we saw him force a lot of throws, resulting in a big-time throw rate of just 1.5% and turnover-worthy play rate of 5.2% passing to his first read. This season, his field vision had undeniably improved and overall just been a complete 180. Passing to his first read, Morgan has improved his big-time throw rate to 5.2% and turnover-worthy play rate to 3.7%. Overall, his first-read passing grade improved from 66.5 to 91.0. There’s still room for improvement as there have been a few turnover-worthy passes made to a predetermined read, but you can’t ask for much else as Morgan certainly shattered expectations in this big jump of his.
Along with that, Morgan’s ability to make a play under duress is now apparent. When he is facing pressure, no one has a higher PFF grade in the FBS. Yes, you read the right. Morgan recorded a higher grade under pressure than the stars like Burrow, Lawrence, et al. Morgan is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the FBS this season and paved the way to Minnesota’s success in 2019.
We’d be remiss if we didn’t bring up one of the best wide receiver duos in all of college football of Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman. Both finished the season ranked in the top 10 at their position in PFF receiving grade and were just one of two duos to rank in the top 20 (LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson is the other such duo). The two are some of the best route runners in all of college football and get open at an inane rate. On top of that, they’ve carried the rare trait of being able to do get separation and also remain effective in contested situations.
All eyes were on Johnson heading into his senior season in 2019 to see if he could maintain his pristine 2018 breakout campaign, and he definitely did. As shown in the figure above, Johnson is filthy in contested catch situations. No wide receiver has a higher PFF grade on contested targets, catching 15 of 21 contested targets this season.
The other half of the elite Golden Gopher duo, true sophomore Bateman, had himself a breakout year and was named one of PFF’s most underrated players in college football. In addition to ranking in the top 10 in PFF receiving grade, Bateman has produced an explosive receiving play that resulted a 15-plus yard gain on 38.9% of his targets. That ranks behind only Alabama’s Henry Ruggs III. As we’ve covered elsewhere, the three biggest things you want to see from a wide receiver are: getting separation with his route running, winning in contested situations and threatening after the catch. Johnson and Bateman are two of the few in college football that can do all three at a high level.
How Minnesota, Baylor, and Utah shocked college football in 2019 | NFL Draft | PFF
PFF's Anthony Treash breaks down what went right for three of college football's biggest surprise teams in the 2019 season.
www.pff.com
