Penn State fired a winning coach to find a great one. What does history say about that decision?

[BleedGopher]

Per Ubben:

It was understandable after his best roster flopped spectacularly in Year 12, bringing about more doubt than ever that he could bring a national championship to Happy Valley.

But there’s an inherent risk in making a change. Whoever replaces him will almost certainly have a less accomplished resume.

They might take the program to new heights. But they might also take it back down into even more maddening valleys.

The history of programs firing good coaches to find great ones is … dubious.

In 2021, I researched this trend and found that from 2011-2021, 20 programs did what Penn State just did.

Only four made a leap. Eight saw their programs get worse. And eight paid big buyouts and big salaries to hire a new coach and staff for almost identical results.

Since 2021, has that changed? Nope.

Nine programs have fired winning coaches in that span. Only one — Sonny Dykes at TCU — made meaningful progress in the program, but followed his national title appearance in Year 1 with a losing season.

Four programs got worse. And four programs have made almost no progress.

Be careful what you wish for, Nittany Lions. It can get worse. And the odds say it will.

Penn State fired a winning coach to find a great one. What does history say about that decision?

From Wisconsin hiring Luke Fickell after Paul Chryst and Bill Belichick following Mack Brown, the history of firing a good coach is sketchy.

www.nytimes.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[Ewert86PC]

"But we're different. We're the exception! I just know it!!"

 

[Gopher_In_NYC]

Per Ubben:

It was understandable after his best roster flopped spectacularly in Year 12, bringing about more doubt than ever that he could bring a national championship to Happy Valley.

But there’s an inherent risk in making a change. Whoever replaces him will almost certainly have a less accomplished resume.

They might take the program to new heights. But they might also take it back down into even more maddening valleys.

The history of programs firing good coaches to find great ones is … dubious.

In 2021, I researched this trend and found that from 2011-2021, 20 programs did what Penn State just did.

Only four made a leap. Eight saw their programs get worse. And eight paid big buyouts and big salaries to hire a new coach and staff for almost identical results.

Since 2021, has that changed? Nope.

Nine programs have fired winning coaches in that span. Only one — Sonny Dykes at TCU — made meaningful progress in the program, but followed his national title appearance in Year 1 with a losing season.

Four programs got worse. And four programs have made almost no progress.

Be careful what you wish for, Nittany Lions. It can get worse. And the odds say it will.

Penn State fired a winning coach to find a great one. What does history say about that decision?

From Wisconsin hiring Luke Fickell after Paul Chryst and Bill Belichick following Mack Brown, the history of firing a good coach is sketchy.

www.nytimes.com

Go Gophers!!

Hire Urban Meyer and he’d win one within 4 years.

 

[Some guy]

Hire Urban Meyer and he’d win one within 4 years.

Either that or fired within 3

You’d know quick!

 

[GopherGrit]

You would think that they wouldn't pull this move unless they already had a firm, under the table committment from their target,

Right?

To me that says they were actually targeting Rhule all along and he gave them a yes under the table/off the record. While, of course, saying all the right things to Neb fanbase and even admin.


So, if the PSU season is lost any way, you fire the coach early to make a statement to the fans.


This is my wild guess

 

[GopherGrit]

About Rhule, not withstanding his debacle in NFL for the Panthers, everywhere he's been at college so far has had a fairly steep upward trajectory:

Matt Rhule - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Carolina in 2020: was covid, they released Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly retired, and McCaffrey barely played.

 

[upnorthkid]

You would think that they wouldn't pull this move unless they already had a firm, under the table committment from their target,

Right?

To me that says they were actually targeting Rhule all along and he gave them a yes under the table/off the record. While, of course, saying all the right things to Neb fanbase and even admin.


So, if the PSU season is lost any way, you fire the coach early to make a statement to the fans.


This is my wild guess

I think it's more they have seen what the donors had to say about if they didn't do it this year (remember, a bunch of guys came back explicitly to try win it all which you know cost them a ton of NIL money with OSUs $20mil roster investment being noted as a "blueprint" for PSU), Franklin needed to go. 4-21 against top 10 teams ain't gonna cut it at PSU. Whether they want to admit or not that Franklin did a lot of winning, we'll see. But if you're investing in the top 5, you're going to expect top 5 results.

 

[4four4]

Delusional

 

[gopherbadgerman]

I'd bet the next coach is not much better, if at all. Most likely worse.

Honestly where is Penn State in the rankings of B10 jobs? 3rd, 4th, 5th? Honestly dont know. I would assume OSU and Michigan are better, Oregon? USC?

 

[Otis]

Considering Franklin”s record, he was basically Joe Paterno without the baggage.
Remember that JoePa was 13-33 against top 5 ranked teams and eight of those wins came in a 7 or 8 year stretch in the 80’s.

So yeah, they just committed themselves to worse.

Best coaching gigs in the B1G:
1. OSU
2. Oregon
3. Michigan
4. USC
5. PSU
The rest is a big toss up till you get to the dumpster fires that is Rutgers and Northwestern. (And of course Wisconsin and Iowa! Cause who would want to coach them?).

Upon reflection, all those top 5 jobs bring a lot of stress along with them. Earning 3 million a year at a school with modest to low expectations is probably a better job. So……

1. MINNESOTA-Great town, get to live on a lake, administration doesn’t put pressure on you, have a decent team and the fans are fine, and if you have a little luck you can maybe get a shot at National Relevance without worry.

This line of thinking means even more to the Men’s Basketball coaching job.

 

[USAF]

If you’ve determined the present situation is unacceptable, "it might get worse" is a poor excuse not to act in an attempt to improve.

In any walk of life.

 

[upnorthkid]

Considering Franklin”s record, he was basically Joe Paterno without the baggage.
Remember that JoePa was 13-33 against top 5 ranked teams and eight of those wins came in a 7 or 8 year stretch in the 80’s.

So yeah, they just committed themselves to worse.

Best coaching gigs in the B1G:
1. OSU
2. Oregon
3. Michigan
4. USC
5. PSU
The rest is a big toss up till you get to the dumpster fires that is Rutgers and Northwestern. (And of course Wisconsin and Iowa! Cause who would want to coach them?)

I'd probably put Michigan over Oregon. Resource wise maybe slight lean to Oregon due to Nike (though Michigan has Jordan) but far better/wider spread donor base at Michigan with vastly better history and excellent midwest recruiting ties (Oregon has Cali, but has to compete with a hell of a lot of schools there; Michigan basically has OSU in the midwest and that's it). I like Eugene, but Ann Arbor has the college town feel but far better proximity to a city (and resultant recruting hub) comparatively. And add that Oregon still has never won a national title. So basically its Knight money against everything else so I'd go Michigan though its close

Agree with the rest of your rankings.

 

[everybody knows my name]

1. MINNESOTA-Great town, get to live on a lake, administration doesn’t put pressure on you, have a decent team and the fans are fine, and if you have a little luck you can maybe get a shot at National Relevance without worry.

This line of thinking means even more to the Men’s Basketball coaching job.

Isn't Fleck scheduled to receive $7 million this year? Not too shabby.

 

[Gophergrandpa]

Wisconsin also fired a very good coach to get a great one. Similarly, Nebraska fired a very good coach to get a great one. It doesn’t always work out that way.

 

[GophersInIowa]