Peeling the Onion: Big Ten Pecking Order for NCAA Tournament Bid

[SelectionSunday]

If the NCAA Tournament were held today, this is the order in which I'd "peel the onion" selecting B1G teams (see pecking order below). I have excluded teams with RPI's greater than #100 (Iowa and Penn State). Generally speaking I use 6 criteria, with a team's individual RPI and overall record serving as a guide.

Overall SOS
1. Michigan State (5)
2. Northwestern (6)
3. Nebraska (20)
4. Wisconsin (26)
5. Michigan (29)
6. Ohio State (30)
7. Illinois (31)
8. Indiana (40)
9. Purdue (42)
10. Gophers (48)

Nonconference SOS
1. Michigan State (25)
2. Northwestern (59)
3. Wisconsin (111)
4. Illinois (120)
5. Ohio State (131)
6. Gophers (143)
7. Michigan (162)
8. Purdue (164)
9. Indiana (179)
10. Nebraska (219)

Road/Neutral Record (by winning %)
1. Wisconsin (6-2)
T-2. Illinois (4-3)
T-2. Indiana (4-3)
T-2. Gophers (4-3)
T-5. Michigan State (4-4)
T-5. Ohio State (3-3)
T-7. Michigan (4-5)
T-7. Northwestern (4-5)
T-7. Purdue (4-5)
10. Nebraska (2-4)

Record vs. RPI Top 50 (by # of wins 1st, then by winning %)
1. Michigan (5-2)
T-2. Illinois (4-3)
T-2. Ohio State (4-3)
4. Michigan State (4-4)
5. Indiana (3-3)
6. Wisconsin (3-4)
7. Purdue (3-5)
8. Gophers (2-3)
9. Northwestern (2-7)
10. Nebraska (1-7)

Record vs. RPI Top 100 (by # of wins 1st, then by winning %)
T-1. Illinois (7-4)
T-1. Michigan (7-4)
T-1. Wisconsin (7-4)
4. Ohio State (6-3)
5. Michigan State (6-4)
T-6. Indiana (5-4)
T-6. Gophers (5-4)
8. Purdue (5-5)
9. Northwestern (3-7)
10. Nebraska (2-8)

Best 3 Wins (total RPI of 3 best wins) -- At the very end of the bubble on SS, this is my "go-to" criteria.
1. Indiana (33): Kentucky (4), Ohio State (7), Michigan (22)
2. Ohio State (58): Duke (2), Indiana (20), Northwestern (36)
3. Illinois (59): Ohio State (7), Gonzaga (16), @ Northwestern (36)
4. Michigan State (61): @ Gonzaga (16), Indiana (20), Florida State (25)
5. Michigan (65): Michigan State (5), vs. Memphis (28), Wisconsin (32)
6. Wisconsin (82): UNLV (6), Northwestern (36), @ Illinois (40)
7. Northwestern (87): Michigan State (5), vs. Seton Hall (9), vs. LSU (73)
8. Purdue (104): vs. Temple (18), Illinois (40), @ Gophers (46)
9. Gophers (123): @ Indiana (20), Northwestern (36), South Dakota State (67)
10. Nebraska (207): Indiana (20), South Dakota State (67), @ TCU (120)

The B1G Pecking Order, Estimate
1. Michigan State (15-4, 5-2, #5)
2. Wisconsin (16-5, 5-3, #32)
3. Ohio State (17-3, 5-2, #7) -- I don't expect the Bucks to remain in this spot.
4. Illinois (15-5, 4-3, #40)
5. Indiana (16-4, 4-4, #20)
6. Michigan (15-5, 6-2, #22)
7. Northwestern (12-7, 2-5, #36)
8. Gophers (15-5, 3-4, #46)
9. Purdue (14-7, 4-4, #61)
10. Nebraska (10-9, 2-6, #100)

In my estimation, as of today teams 7-9 certainly have the look of bubble-type teams. Teams 1-6 clearly would be in the NCAA Tournament.

Granted, in this instance I'm only comparing teams from the same conference, but I think this aptly shows how much work the Gophers still have compared to their B1G brethren. A 9-9 B1G regular-season finish still might be enough to garner a bid, but I'm not as sure of that as I was a few weeks ago. What stands out to me? The Gophers' nonconference opponents -- to this point -- have provided minimal help.

 

[Winona Gopher]

So what is the reason you put Northwestern above Minnesota? Is it just specifically this criteria? Because I would think, since these 2 teams have similar resumes, you would take the recent head to head matchup where the gophers beat northwestern

 

[920/414 Gopher]

So what is the reason you put Northwestern above Minnesota? Is it just specifically this criteria? Because I would think, since these 2 teams have similar resumes, you would take the recent head to head matchup where the gophers beat northwestern

I don't mean to speak for SS, but I would probably point to factors like SOS and opponents they've beaten. They're very close though. When it's all said and done, I'd be willing to bet we'll be above NW.

 

[jovs]

The B1G Pecking Order, Estimate[/B]
1. Michigan State (15-4, 5-2, #5)
2. Wisconsin (16-5, 5-3, #32)
3. Ohio State (17-3, 5-2, #7) -- I don't expect the Bucks to remain in this spot.
4. Illinois (15-5, 4-3, #40)
5. Indiana (16-4, 4-4, #20)
6. Michigan (15-5, 6-2, #22)
7. Northwestern (12-7, 2-5, #36)
8. Gophers (15-5, 3-4, #46)
9. Purdue (14-7, 4-4, #61)
10. Nebraska (10-9, 2-6, #100)

I'll go with

1. Michigan State (15-4, 5-2, #5)
2. Ohio State (17-3, 5-2, #7)
3. Michigan (15-5, 6-2, #22)
4. Wisconsin (16-5, 5-3, #32)
5. Indiana (16-4, 4-4, #20)
6. Illinois (15-5, 4-3, #40)
7. Purdue (14-7, 4-4, #61)
8. Gophers (15-5, 3-4, #46)
9. Northwestern (12-7, 2-5, #36)
10. Nebraska (10-9, 2-6, #100)

At this point I don't see alot of difference between Purdue and the Gophers. Big week, Gophers sweep they move up considerabley, split they stay about the same, lose both and they will be in the same boat as Northwestern and Nebraska, very unlikely.

 

[KyGopherfan]

If we get 9 wins in the toughest conference in the land, we're locks...period. I tend not to look at it through the prism of a conference pecking order, but rather the pecking order nationwide. We've been told the committee doesn't pay attention so much to how many get in from each conference.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I tend not to look at it through the prism of a conference pecking order, but rather the pecking order nationwide. We've been told the committee doesn't pay attention so much to how many get in from each conference.

Which is why I mentioned that in this instance I was only looking at teams respective to one (B1G) conference, not in comparison to the whole (national) landscape.

I agree with you. Teams gets bids, not conferences. Every team is an "independent" when being considered for an at-large bid.