One More Blind Resume (sorry SS)

[matt]

I wanted to do one last blind resume. Below are 6 times... pick 5 of them to make the tournament. I will post team names and other info at 9:15. Sorry for stealing your idea SS, but I really wanted to do this one. By the way, I would be interested to know if you know who all these teams are just by looking at the resumes.

Team A
Record: 18-13
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 13
Nonconference SOS: 62
Road/Neutral Record: 7-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-10
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-13
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 0
Best 3 Wins by RPI: #5, #54, @83 (total = 142)
Last 12 Games: 6-6

Team B
Record: 18-12
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 21
Nonconference SOS: 52
Road/Neutral Record: 5-10
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-9
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 3
Best 3 Wins by RPI: @28, #54, #68 (total =150)
Last 12 Games: 8-4

Team C
Record: 23-8
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 94
Nonconference SOS: 72
Road/Neutral Record: 6-7
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2
Best 3 Wins by RPI: @51, #51, @54 (total = 156)
Last 12 Games: 8-4

Team D
Record: 18-11
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 40
Nonconference SOS: 103
Road/Neutral Record: 5-8
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-10
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1
Best 3 Wins by RPI: @4, #23, #80 (total = 107)
Last 12 Games: 8-4

Team E
Record: 21-14
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 43
Nonconference SOS: 213
Road/Neutral Record: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-12
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 2
Best 3 Wins by RPI: #8, @11, #12 (total = 31)
Last 12 Games: 5-7

Team F
Record: 18-10
Overall Strength of Schedule (SOS): 8
Nonconference SOS: 30
Road/Neutral Record: 5-9
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-9
Bad Losses (RPI 101+): 1
Best 3 Wins by RPI: #14, #26, #33 (total = 73)
Last 12 Games: 6-6

Again, pick 5 of the 6 teams to advance (or just the one that shouldn't advance).

 

[matt]

This blind resume was in response to the "glass overflowing with kool-aid thread" that says we stand no chance of making the tournament unless we win the Big Ten Tournament. The 6 teams above are Jerry Palm's last 4 in, Northwestern, and Minnesota if they make it to the BTT title game and lose.

• Team A: Northwestern
• Team B: South Florida
• Team C: California
• Team D: Miami (FL)
• Team E: Minnesota if they lose in the BTT final
• Team F: Colorado State

The committee does not take the conference record into account when they pick the field. For the most, they want to know who a team has played and who they have beat over the course of a season. Looking at the resumes, you can see that the Gophers resume would stack up pretty well with the other 5 teams who are all considered "in" the tournament right now. The committee would have to look long and hard at the Gophers and decide if their quality wins are enough to overcome the poor finish down the end of the season. Keep in mind other teams struggled down the stretch as well though, not just the Gophers. You can't just say they were 6-12 in conference play, so they have no chance of making it in - you have to figure out what other teams deserve to make it ahead of them.

Here are the assumptions I made in calculating the Gopher's hypothetical resume:

• They beat NW, Mich, and OSU, but lose to MSU, Ind, or Wisc in the title game.
• NW drops out of the RPI Top 50 when we beat them, and I did calculate their loss to Minn in their RPI vs. Top 100 record.
• I did not adjust the SOS of the Gophers. Keep in mind that Minnesota's SOS would improve a decent amount if we made the title game though.
• I did not adjust the stats of any other teams with the exception of NW's record as described above. Keep in mind the RPI's of the teams we beat might drop slightly and other stats would be affected as well, both positive and negative.

This is just a different perspective on things and I hope it opens your eyes a little bit to how weak the bubble is. The Gophers resume really does not look that bad compared to other bubble teams with the huge exception of their finish down the stretch. I do not think the Gophers deserve to be on the bubble right now, but if they make the title game it'll be interesting to see how seriously the committee takes the Gophers.

 

[Madman]

I hope for your sake (and all of this great analysis that you've done) that we don't lay an egg tomorrow night. You're more of an optimist than I am... love it.....

 

[Tater]

I'm glad you did this. I was curious about this scenario. It seems that a good number of bubble teams crap the bed this time of year and the bubble becomes weaker than expected.

Take care of NW first and let's see if we can make things interesting!

 

[matt]

I'm glad you did this. I was curious about this scenario. It seems that a good number of bubble teams crap the bed this time of year and the bubble becomes weaker than expected.

Take care of NW first and let's see if we can make things interesting!

Agreed, let's just take it one game at a time and see where we end up.

 

[From the Barn]

Northwestern doesn't belong on the bubble until they get more than 1 top 50 win.

 

[matt]

Northwestern doesn't belong on the bubble until they get more than 1 top 50 win.

I agree completely. I cannot understand why so many people have them in the tournament. They are 1-10 against the RPI Top 50! How does that equate to a tournament team?!

 

[Becky Vadger]

I didn't realize how awful our OOC schedule was. I guess that is killing us now as much as anything.

I think we have a reasonably good chance at two B1G tourney wins. It is really tough for me to see us beating OSU though.

 

[Madman]

Mattw's optimistic pipe dream needs to be acknowledged. I just don't want the optimism that fueled this thread to die. I am simply attempting to resurrect this thread to the top of the queue so that others might begin to believe that just making the big ten tournament championship might be enough. Go gophs.

 

[gopher000]

Looking at those projections I would say MN stacks up very well against all of those teams if they go all the way to the finals. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue takes out Ohio St. tomorrow they are playing pretty good lately. I just want a Gopher win tomorrow so I can wake up Saturday knowing there is still hope