Non-conference schedules debated

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CollegeBBallFan

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Here is an interesting article - albeit about football - about the risks and rewards of tough non-conference schedules. While this article is about football {fewer season games to prove yourself than basketball}, I think there are many parallels to basketball scheduling. Even with Calipari at UK, the their non-conference slate includes Morehead (KY), Sam Houston, Long Beach State, Hartford, Austin Peay, Cleveland State (away game) not to mention exhibitions (paid for tickets) against Campbellsville (KY) and Clarion (PA) . I know - I have season tickets to these home games and drive 4 hours one-way. With the SEC not being as strong as the Big Ten in the eyes of many, where does UK get the needed proof they are worthy? Do they put all their eggs in one basket with NC, Louisville, and Connecticut games? Are these teams the ones to beat in 2009-2010? I think Bruce Pearl (Tennessee) might reconsider the murderous non-conference slate he scheduled last year. I understand the view of the ticket-buying fans (includes me), but I also see the rationale of the coaches.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-bcs102009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Sorry - if you have to cut and paste the URL

More discussion on this worn-out subject while we await tip-off! Go-Gophers!
 

As a UK season-ticket holder, you'll get to see Louisville and North Carolina on your home court this season. That's a significant reward for loyal fans such as yourself, and it more than makes up for the cupcakes.

In Minnesota (yes, I know we're not UK), the reward is. ... Saint Joseph's (picked to finish 11th in the A-10) and Morgan State (the MEAC favorite) as our "marquee" home games. That makes the mouthful of Twinkies even harder to swallow.

The good news is (according to Bobby Gonzalez), the Gophers start a home-and-home vs. Seton Hall next season. I expect more of those type matchups in the Gophers' future.
 

A lot of those games are far from "cupcakes". They're for RPI purposes, resume building and potential seeding in March.

Which do you think helps you more in terms of RPI: Beating a 17-18 win team from the Big East that somehow slipped into the NCAA tournament based on a tough SOS or a 26 win "mid-major" team that lost in their one bid league's conference final?
 

SelectionSunday said:
As a UK season-ticket holder, you'll get to see Louisville and North Carolina on your home court this season. That's a significant reward for loyal fans such as yourself, and it more than makes up for the cupcakes.

In Minnesota (yes, I know we're not UK), the reward is. ... Saint Joseph's (picked to finish 11th in the A-10) and Morgan State (the MEAC favorite) as our "marquee" home games. That makes the mouthful of Twinkies even harder to swallow.

The good news is (according to Bobby Gonzalez), the Gophers start a home-and-home vs. Seton Hall next season. I expect more of those type matchups in the Gophers' future.
Click to expand...

Tubby's schedules at Tulsa, Georgia, and UK included progressively tougher SOS ratings. I doubt his Minnesota schedules will differ very much.
 

CollegeBBallFan said:
Here is an interesting article - albeit about football - about the risks and rewards of tough non-conference schedules. While this article is about football {fewer season games to prove yourself than basketball}, I think there are many parallels to basketball scheduling. Even with Calipari at UK, the their non-conference slate includes Morehead (KY), Sam Houston, Long Beach State, Hartford, Austin Peay, Cleveland State (away game) not to mention exhibitions (paid for tickets) against Campbellsville (KY) and Clarion (PA) . I know - I have season tickets to these home games and drive 4 hours one-way. With the SEC not being as strong as the Big Ten in the eyes of many, where does UK get the needed proof they are worthy? Do they put all their eggs in one basket with NC, Louisville, and Connecticut games? Are these teams the ones to beat in 2009-2010? I think Bruce Pearl (Tennessee) might reconsider the murderous non-conference slate he scheduled last year. I understand the view of the ticket-buying fans (includes me), but I also see the rationale of the coaches.

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-bcs102009&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

Sorry - if you have to cut and paste the URL

More discussion on this worn-out subject while we await tip-off! Go-Gophers!
Click to expand...

With a few exceptions, UK has regularly played tough OOC schedules. They are hurt by the weakness of SEC schedules in some (not all) years more than OOC play.
 


"Which do you think helps you more in terms of RPI: Beating a 17-18 win team from the Big East that somehow slipped into the NCAA tournament based on a tough SOS or a 26 win "mid-major" team that lost in their one bid league's conference final?"

Not sure if you're asking me, but my answer would be the former (beating a major conference school that slipped into the tournament). However, I certainly understand that both can be beneficial, i.e. beating a Niagara or Siena (from the MAAC) or a Buffalo (favored this year) from the MAC.

For the record, as you pointed out, I agree that Slick Cal scheduled smartly. ... UK being in the top 4 of both my overall (#4) and home schedule (#2) rankings supports that. The Slickster has scheduled a lot of teams UK should beat, but teams that are expected to do well (or are traditionally solid) within their leagues, hence they aren't likely to be RPI killers. My best guess would look at UK like this:

The Upper-Shelf Opponents
Indiana (road)
Louisville (home)
North Carolina (home)
UConn (neutral)

Traditionally solid programs and/or not likely a cupcake this season
Austin Peay (home)
Cleveland State (neutral site)
Miami-Ohio (home)
Rider (home; could hang with Niagara & Siena in solid MAAC this season)

Will beat but not likely RPI killers
Drexel
Long Beach State (Big West favorite)
Morehead State (won OVC last season)
Sam Houston State (one of the Southland favorites)

True Cupcakes
Hartford
UNC-Asheville

Cal's a slickster, but he's a good coach and he knows how to schedule outside of league play. This schedule reflects that.

I promise this is my last reference to Kentucky this season as it pertains to the Slickster, the UK fans & one's obsession with his friend.
 

SelectionSunday said:
"Which do you think helps you more in terms of RPI: Beating a 17-18 win team from the Big East that somehow slipped into the NCAA tournament based on a tough SOS or a 26 win "mid-major" team that lost in their one bid league's conference final?"

Not sure if you're asking me, but my answer would be the former (beating a major conference school that slipped into the tournament). However, I certainly understand that both can be beneficial, i.e. beating a Niagara or Siena (from the MAAC) or a Buffalo (favored this year) from the MAC.

For the record, as you pointed out, I agree that Slick Cal scheduled smartly. ... UK being in the top 4 of both my overall (#4) and home schedule (#2) rankings supports that. The Slickster has scheduled a lot of teams UK should beat, but teams that are expected to do well (or are traditionally solid) within their leagues, hence they aren't likely to be RPI killers. My best guess would look at UK like this:

The Upper-Shelf Opponents
Indiana (road)
Louisville (home)
North Carolina (home)
UConn (neutral)

Traditionally solid programs and/or not likely a cupcake this season
Austin Peay (home)
Cleveland State (neutral site)
Miami-Ohio (home)
Rider (home; could hang with Niagara & Siena in solid MAAC this season)

Will beat but not likely RPI killers
Drexel
Long Beach State (Big West favorite)
Morehead State (won OVC last season)
Sam Houston State (one of the Southland favorites)

True Cupcakes
Hartford
UNC-Asheville

Cal's a slickster, but he's a good coach and he knows how to schedule outside of league play. This schedule reflects that.

I promise this is my last reference to Kentucky this season as it pertains to the Slickster, the UK fans & one's obsession with his friend.
Click to expand...

All due respect, this is your worst analysis ever.

UConn, UNC, Louisville are tough opponents. IU is a cupcake this year but not traditionally.

Cleveland State will be decent but that is the only 1 of the next 4 that is NOT a cupcake. The other 3 are just that.

Among the third group of 4, only Long Beach State will be decent this year.

The last 2 are cupcakes. You got something right (finally).

Calipari will have tough schedules at UK but this ain't one of 'em.
 

The RPI the Selection Committee uses consists of a formula that bases 50% of it's total on your opponents wins. What kills an RPI is scheduling bottom feeders in a so called "low or mid-major" conferences or even those that under perform remarkably in a power conference.

So what you're looking to do is schedule potential 20 game+ winners irregardless if they make the tournament or not. I've had it explained to me by Rick Byrd that the reason they've been getting a lot more offers to come in and play higher profile teams is that they've established a good program that even if they're not a factor to win the A-Sun they're still likely to get to that 20 win plateau and boost an opponents RPI.
 

It's not Calipari's fault that Duke (don't get me started on K's "offer" to Kentucky. It was laughable. A game in Cameron and a game in New York over a home and home. UK countered with one game in Atlanta in an ESPN deal but he refused) and Texas (which is going to happen within the next two years) turned down deals to play this year and they couldn't work out something with Kansas. Calipari also didn't want to play in the Cancun Challenge and kicked a couple of real bottom feeders from low-major conferences off the schedule and replaced them with better quality opponents.
 



"What kills an RPI is scheduling bottom feeders in a so called "low or mid-major" conferences or even those that under perform remarkably in a power conference.

"So what you're looking to do is schedule potential 20 game+ winners irregardless if they make the tournament or not. I've had it explained to me by Rick Byrd that the reason they've been getting a lot more offers to come in and play higher profile teams is that they've established a good program that even if they're not a factor to win the A-Sun they're still likely to get to that 20 win plateau and boost an opponents RPI."

That sounds about right to me. It's definitely tricky finding the right mix. Some coaches try harder to find the right mix than others.
 

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