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ChemEGopher

ChemEGopher

Section 133 Row 28!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Tim Doyle says we need to go 3-2 in our next five games (4 of them are on the road). Can we do it? I think we can, but it will take our best efforts. Thoughts?
 

Next 5 Games Not As Critical As Next 20 Games

Gophers have 18 B10 games and 1 to 3 (let's say 2) B10 tourney games.

They need to get 13 W out of those 20 games. That would be 22-10.
 

It depends on whom we beat among those 13 wins. Without a quality win or two against Michigan State or Purdue at home, or Ohio State, Michigan or Wisconsin on the road, we will be perched perilously on the bubble, slipping slowly but inexorably down the side. Mark my words, Anaheim will come back to haunt us in March.
 

Mark my words, Anaheim will come back to haunt us in March.
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Actually, I think Anaheim has been haunting us the day after they returned from the trip. If we're not 3-1 in the next four I'll begin to get concerned.
 

We don't need 13 BT wins to get into the tourney....
 



Friend Of Tubby said:
Gophers have 18 B10 games and 1 to 3 (let's say 2) B10 tourney games.

They need to get 13 W out of those 20 games. That would be 22-10.
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My god man, would you stop it with this. The Gophers do not need to get to 13 wins in the Big Ten. If they get to 11, they are fine.

Are you trying to tell me that if they go 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season with a win against Purdue and a win against Michigan State, have a 20-10 record and lose on Friday in the Big Ten Tournament that the NCAA committee would leave them out? Seriously? You cannot honestly believe that. 20-10 with 11-7 would put in the Top 35 RPI (probably Top 25) RPI. I respect that you know your basketball, but you cannot seriously believe what you're saying. Don't be so stubborn. Just admit you were a little aggressive when you first posted weeks ago that we'd need 13 Big Ten wins. It is real simple. We don't.

Now, there's certainly debate as to whether this team is capable of getting to 11 wins in the Big Ten. I'm not sure it can. But, trust me, if they get to 11 regular season wins, they are a lock to make the NCAA, no matter how many times you try to tell us it will take 13.

There has never been an 11-win Big Ten team get left out and certainly they aren't going to leave a Tubby Smith-coached 11-win Big Ten team (20 wins on the year) out. And, at the same time, there's been many, many examples of 10-win and 9-win teams included in the tourney field (including MN last year).
 


tjgopher said:
My god man, would you stop it with this. The Gophers do not need to get to 13 wins in the Big Ten. If they get to 11, they are fine.

Are you trying to tell me that if they go 11-7 in the Big Ten regular season with a win against Purdue and a win against Michigan State, have a 20-10 record and lose on Friday in the Big Ten Tournament that the NCAA committee would leave them out? Seriously? You cannot honestly believe that. I respect that you know your basketball, but you cannot seriously believe what you're saying. Don't be so stubborn. Just admit you were a little aggressive when you first posted weeks ago that we'd need 13 Big Ten wins. It is real simple. We don't.

Now, there's certainly debate as to whether this team is capable of getting to 11 wins in the Big Ten. I'm not sure it can. But, trust me, if they get to 11 regular season wins, they are a lock to make the NCAA, no matter how many times you try to tell us it will take 13.

There has never been an 11-win Big Ten team get left out and certainly they aren't going to leave a Tubby Smith-coached 11-win Big Ten team (20 wins on the year) out. And, at the same time, there's been many, many examples of 10-win and 9-win teams included in the tourney field (including MN last year).
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I'll try to simplify so MAYBE you understand.

No, they don't need 13 W in B10 regular season play.

But YES they need 13 W in regular season play AND B10 tourney.

20-10 (or 20-11 on Selection Sunday) will not bring NCAA bid.
 



Friend Of Tubby said:
Generally I believe the Gophers need 22 W on Selection Sunday. If they win B10 tourney (obviously) they don't.
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Okay, you are nuts. This confirms it. You realize that if we go 12-6 in the Big Ten and lose on Friday of the BTT that we would be 21-9. You really can't believe we'd get left out at that point, can you? Honestly?


Friend Of Tubby said:
20-10 (or 20-11 on Selection Sunday) will not bring NCAA bid.
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So, you're saying for the first time in the history of the Big Ten that an 11-win team will not get chosen to take part in the NCAA tourney? Is that right? Do you realize there's only been one team that won ten games in the Big Ten regular season and gotten left out? Why are you so hell-bent on the need to get to 22 or 23 wins? There's absolutely no justification for it, other than some weak example of K-State a couple of years ago that finished with 10 wins in the Big 12.

20-11 (11-7) on Selection Sunday would almost assuredly have us in the Top 35 in the RPI, would almost assuredly include a quality win or two, and would no doubt have us in the field.

By the way, what does Michigan State have to do? Do they also need to get to your magical 13 number? They will also be 9-3 with a weaker non-conference schedule than the Gophers? Do you think they need to get to your magic 13 number? What if Izzo goes 11-7? You think he'll get left out?
 

Regardless, I see the seven teams vying for five spots in the Big 10 on Selection Sunday this year.

Minnesota, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio St.

There may be a team or two that won't be happy when all is said and done. With the Gophers non con season that left it without an impressive win, I hope they're not left out.
 

Reserve said:
Minnesota, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio St.
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I think six of those seven teams make the field. I'd throw Michigan in as a possible team to include in the mix, though. I know they've stunk up the joint so far, but with the talent on that team, they could get hot and rack up some wins and get up to 12-6 in the Big Ten and play themselves into consideration (yes, I know doubtful).

When all is said and done, I think six Big Ten teams make the field.

Now that the conference season is ready to start, here's where the teams stack up in the all-important RPI:

15 - Purdue 11-0 (best win vs. RPI #49 Wake Forest)
30 - Wisconsin 9-2 (best win vs. RPI #1 Duke)
47 - Northwestern 10-1 (best win vs. RPI #41 NC State)
55 - Michigan State 9-3 (best win vs. RPI #32 Gonzaga)
62 - Minnesota 9-3 (best win vs. RPI #21 Butler)
95 - Ohio State 10-2 (best win vs. RPI #12 Cal)
110 - Illinois 8-4(best win vs. RPI #40 Clemson)
163- Iowa 5-7 (best win vs. RPI #196 Bowling Green)
191 - Michigan 5-5 (best win vs. RPI #192 Detroit)
215 - Penn State 8-4 (best win vs. RPI #128 Sacred Heart)
247 - Indiana 5-6 (best win vs. RPI #34 Pittsburgh)

So, while we are fretting, there are others in worse shape than we are. Our Butler win is still better than anything Northwestern has (in fact NW lost to Butler), better than any Purdue, Michigan State or Illinois win at this point.
 




Reserve said:
Regardless, I see the seven teams vying for five spots in the Big 10 on Selection Sunday this year.

Minnesota, Michigan St, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio St.

There may be a team or two that won't be happy when all is said and done. With the Gophers non con season that left it without an impressive win, I hope they're not left out.
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There are 3 teams on that list with a "best win" worse than the Gophers, and two of those teams lost to Minnesota's good win.
 

There are 3 teams on that list with a "best win" worse than the Gophers, and two of those teams lost to Minnesota's good win.
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Which says what? The Big 10 initially was the toughest conference this year. After a number of terrible losses where do we rank now as a conference? Butler was a decent win on our schedule but they were obviously way overated. Last year we got seven in on the strength of our non conference wins, this year?

I'm not downplaying our chances just trying to be realistic. Except for Iowa, I don't see us sweeping anyone this year.
 

tjgopher...

tjgopher..

respectfully, I am not convinced 11-7 in the Big Ten gets us in the tourney. We have been screwed on selection sunday before.

11-7 and 2 wins in the big ten tourney gets us a lock but anything less, IMHO, we are perched on the bubble.

Now, you can come up with wacky scenerio's where we beat purdue and MSU and wind up at 11-7 that might change my opinion but I dont see that as a high probability wager.

The lads botched up the NC important games and have to live with the baggage all the way to March.

I still believe they can get to 22 wins and be ok.
 

tjgopher said:
Okay, you are nuts. This confirms it. You realize that if we go 12-6 in the Big Ten and lose on Friday of the BTT that we would be 21-9. You really can't believe we'd get left out at that point, can you? Honestly?

So, you're saying for the first time in the history of the Big Ten that an 11-win team will not get chosen to take part in the NCAA tourney? Is that right? Do you realize there's only been one team that won ten games in the Big Ten regular season and gotten left out? Why are you so hell-bent on the need to get to 22 or 23 wins? There's absolutely no justification for it, other than some weak example of K-State a couple of years ago that finished with 10 wins in the Big 12.

20-11 (11-7) on Selection Sunday would almost assuredly have us in the Top 35 in the RPI, would almost assuredly include a quality win or two, and would no doubt have us in the field.

By the way, what does Michigan State have to do? Do they also need to get to your magical 13 number? They will also be 9-3 with a weaker non-conference schedule than the Gophers? Do you think they need to get to your magic 13 number? What if Izzo goes 11-7? You think he'll get left out?
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It all depends on upsets in other conference tourneys.

22 W = in.

20 or 21 W = not in (but maybe).
 

Section201 said:
tjgopher..

respectfully, I am not convinced 11-7 in the Big Ten gets us in the tourney. We have been screwed on selection sunday before.

11-7 and 2 wins in the big ten tourney gets us a lock but anything less, IMHO, we are perched on the bubble.

Now, you can come up with wacky scenerio's where we beat purdue and MSU and wind up at 11-7 that might change my opinion but I dont see that as a high probability wager.

The lads botched up the NC important games and have to live with the baggage all the way to March.

I still believe they can get to 22 wins and be ok.
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Bingo. Exactly.
 

Section201 said:
tjgopher..

respectfully, I am not convinced 11-7 in the Big Ten gets us in the tourney. We have been screwed on selection sunday before.

11-7 and 2 wins in the big ten tourney gets us a lock but anything less, IMHO, we are perched on the bubble.

Now, you can come up with wacky scenerio's where we beat purdue and MSU and wind up at 11-7 that might change my opinion but I dont see that as a high probability wager.

The lads botched up the NC important games and have to live with the baggage all the way to March.

I still believe they can get to 22 wins and be ok.
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What convinces you that a 20-10 record (11-7) in the Big Ten isn't enough? It certainly cannot be history, because history tells us that that is MORE than enough. There simply isn't one existing example of a Big Ten team that has won 11 regular season Big Ten games and missed out on the NCAA. However, there is overwhelming evidence of teams that not only didn't win 11 games, but also LOST their opening game of the BTT and still made it:

2009 - Wisconsin entered BTT 10-8 BT record and 19-11 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2007 - Indiana entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 20-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2006 - Wisconsin entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2003 - Purdue entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2002 - MSU entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2001 - Wis entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2000 - Purdue entered BTT 12-4 BT record and 20-8 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA

With 11 BT wins, the Gophers would enter the BTT this year at 20-10 record. They are in the NCAA at that point regardless of what happens in Indy, IMHO. History indicates that 11 Big Ten wins will raise a team's resume and RPI enough to be placed into the field (almost always with ease if its 11 W's). Again, I could be wrong, have been wrong before and maybe will be in this. But, it would be a tough pill to swallow to win 11 Big Ten games and miss the tourney. Of course, we'd become the first fan base ever to experience that bitter pill, but as you mentioned, we've been the first before.
 

11 BT regular season wins should be sufficient. Even if we do not score a win against Purdue or MSU, I think we will still be in as long as we beat OSU once in the course of 11 wins -- OSU is of top 25 caliber. A win against Purdue or MSU will remove all doubt. That's how I see it.
 

I think 10-8 and one Big Ten Tournament win would get Minnesota in, but who knows.
 

TJ

I agree, but isn't interesting that Wisconsin is on that list so many times.
 

10 regular season wins + one tourney win is a possibility. However, 10 wins may get us tied with one or two teams. In that case, things become more blurry with respect to the selection criteria. If only 10 wins and none against the top 3 teams in the conference, we may be a bubble and will need much more than one tourney win.
 

tj

"What convinces you that a 20-10 record (11-7) in the Big Ten isn't enough?"

To date the Big 10 doesn't look that great. Yes, we could definately get in with 11-7 and nothing else. You have made a strong argument for that.

I don't mean to say 11-7 won't get us in.

What I am saying is I don't think 11-7 on it's own, gets us off the bubble.

If 11-7 is tied for third I would say we are a lock. But if 11-7 is tied for 4th I am not so sure.

It leaves us at the mercy of conference tourney upsets, how we compare to other bubble teams, and whatever other mitigating circumstances the committee chooses to dwell on. I hate that.

If we are on the bubble we are in danger, IMHO.

Perhaps I am too pessimistic.

And as my wife likes to reminds me, I have been wrong before.

:)
 

11 or 13 wins....Truthfully i have a hard time seeing this team getting more than 10 wins during conference play. What games do you think we win/lose?
 

dbuton said:
11 or 13 wins....Truthfully i have a hard time seeing this team getting more than 10 wins during conference play. What games do you think we win/lose?
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I think (if Gophers play WELL like they have LATELY) 7 or 8 home W and 4 or 5 road W = 11 to 13 W in B10 regular season.
 

It leaves us at the mercy of conference tourney upsets, how we compare to other bubble teams, and whatever other mitigating circumstances the committee chooses to dwell on. I hate that.

If we are on the bubble we are in danger, IMHO.
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Which is exactly where I'm at as well.
 

11 wins

dbuton said:
11 or 13 wins....Truthfully i have a hard time seeing this team getting more than 10 wins during conference play. What games do you think we win/lose?
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One issue I have with thinking 11 wins is a lock this year is our conference shedule. We have 8 games with Iowa, Indiana, Penn State and Northwestern. The jury may still be out on Penn State and NW but if we were to win 7 of those games that would make 4 victories against the upper echelon to get to 11.

Would that 11 victories look as good as 11 victories usually would in the Big Ten?

Just asking....
 

Section201 said:
Would that 11 victories look as good as 11 victories usually would in the Big Ten?
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I honestly don't think it matters. Based on the past records/schedules, it doesn't seem to matter how Big 10 teams have gotten to 11 wins. I don't care if you play Iowa all 11 games.

Simply put, if we win 11 games, and 1, maybe none in the Big 10 tourney, I think we're 99.9% in.
 

2 points

ShowinGoldyLove said:
I honestly don't think it matters. Based on the past records/schedules, it doesn't seem to matter how Big 10 teams have gotten to 11 wins. I don't care if you play Iowa all 11 games.

Simply put, if we win 11 games, and 1, maybe none in the Big 10 tourney, I think we're 99.9% in.
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1. I hope we get to 11 or better, and

2. I hope you are right!
 

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