New Mexico & Michigan State among at-large teams taking big hit in latest Field of 68 projection

SelectionSunday

Well-known member
Joined
Nov 12, 2008
Messages
24,401
Reaction score
4,458
Points
113
ROAD TO SELECTION SUNDAY, MN – We’ll try a different look for this week’s Field of 68 projection. This format gives you an idea of how I’m thinking for the back-end part of the at-large pool.

The new at-larges in the bracket this week are Nebraska, Seton Hall, and Wake Forest. Dropping out for now are Butler, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Utah.

Among those taking significant hits to their NCAA aspirations were New Mexico and Michigan State. The Lobos and Spartans remain in the field, but absorbed ugly home losses to Air Force and short-handed Ohio State (no Jamison Battle), respectively. The Lobos fall all the way to my "last 4 in", while the Spartans sit barely above that among the last 8 at-larges.

The automatic qualifier is the team with the best conference record (i.e. 2-0 is better than 1-0) or, in the event of a tie, the team with the best NET ranking.

WEEK #16 FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (through Feb. 25)
Automatic Qualifiers (32)

America East: Vermont (100)
American: USF (84)
ACC: North Carolina (9)
ASUN: Eastern Kentucky (194)
Atlantic 10: Richmond (72)
Big East: UConn (3)
Big Sky: Eastern Washington (129)
Big South: High Point (111)
Big Ten: Purdue (2)
Big XII: Houston (1)
Big West: UC-Irvine (80)
Coastal: College of Charleston (102)
Conference USA: Louisiana Tech (82)
Horizon: Oakland (130)
Ivy: Princeton (51)
MAAC: Fairfield (158)
MAC: Akron (95)
MEAC: Norfolk State (228)
Missouri Valley: Indiana State (33)
Mountain West: Utah State (29)
NEC: Merrimack (202)
OVC: Morehead State (118)
Pac 12: Arizona (4)
Patriot: Colgate (136)
SEC: Tennessee (5)
SoCon: Samford (68)
Southland: McNeese (52)
SWAC: Grambling (289)
Summit: South Dakota State (162)
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (74)
WCC: Saint Mary’s (15)
WAC: Grand Canyon (59)

Locks (13) – gets us to 45 teams in the field
Alabama (6)
Auburn (7)
Iowa State (8)
Duke (10)
Creighton (11)
Marquette (12)
Kansas (14)
Baylor (16)
Illinois (17)
San Diego State (18)
Kentucky (19)
Wisconsin (22)
Clemson (23)

Safely in the Field for Now (15) -- gets us to 60
BYU (13)
Dayton (20)
Colorado State (27)
Mississippi State (28)
TCU (30)
Florida (31)
Boise State (32)
Texas Tech (35)
FAU (37)
Washington State (36)
Oklahoma (39)
Nebraska (41)
Nevada (42)
South Carolina (48)
Northwestern (53)

Squarely on the Bubble “IN” (4) – gets us to 64
Michigan State (24)
Wake Forest (25)
Texas (40)
Providence (55)

Squarely on the Bubble “LAST 4 IN”—gets us to 68
Gonzaga (21)
New Mexico (26)
Virginia (49)
Seton Hall (61)

Squarely on the Bubble “FIRST 6 OUT”
Colorado (34)
Villanova (38)
Drake (46)
James Madison (50)
Utah (54)
Texas A&M (58)

Under Consideration (12)
Saint John’s (44)
Cincinnati (45)
Pitt (47)
Virginia Tech (56)
Iowa (60)
Butler (62)
Oregon (63)
Kansas State (73)
Ole Miss (75)
NC State (77)
Memphis (79)
Syracuse (85)

Non-Power 6 At-Large Bids (8): San Diego State (18), Dayton (20), Gonzaga (21), New Mexico (26), Colorado State (27), Boise State (32), FAU (37), Nevada (42)

Current Bid-Stealers (2): Richmond, USF

Moving In (8): Fairfield, Grambling, Nebraska, Princeton, Richmond, Seton Hall, South Dakota State, Wake Forest

Dropping Out (8): Butler, North Dakota, Ole Miss, Quinnipiac, Southern U, Texas A&M, Utah, Yale

** records indicated below are vs. Division 1 opponents only

Summit League Power Rankings
1 South Dakota State (14-12)
2 North Dakota State (12-14)
3 North Dakota (14-12)
4 St. Thomas (14-12)
5 Kansas City (11-15)
6 Denver (11-14)
7 Omaha (10-16)
8 South Dakota (8-18)
9 ORU (8-17)

Big Ten Power Rankings
1 Purdue (25-3)
2 Nebraska (20-8)
3 Illinois (20-7)
4 Northwestern (19-8)
5 Wisconsin (18-9)
6 Iowa (16-12)
7 Minnesota (17-10)
8 Michigan State (17-11)
9 Penn State (14-14)
10 Ohio State (16-12)
11 Maryland (15-13)
12 Rutgers (14-13)
13 Indiana (14-13)
14 Michigan (8-20)

State of Minnesota in the Rankings
NET:
Minnesota #78, St. Thomas #166
KenPom: Minnesota #67, St. Thomas #157
Haslametrics: Minnesota #70, St. Thomas #160
 
Last edited:

Obviously not super likely to shake out this way, but it struck me that New Mexico vs Virginia would be some kind of First Four matchup - the fastest and the slowest adjusted tempos (via Torvik) that are projected in the field (UVA is, true to form, the slowest in the nation and none of the faster teams than UNM's 6th fastest are likely auto qualifiers).
 

The New Mexico home loss to Air Force was brutally bad. They could easily fall out unless they win on the upcoming road games or make a conference tournament run.
 




Top Bottom