NCAA Bracketology

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let'sbeclear

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ESPN's latest bracket (Feb. 14) has 12 Big Ten teams in the tournament. Here are the Big Ten teams in its latest bracket, with NET rankings in parentheses:

#1 seeds: UCLA (#5)
#2 seeds: USC (#6)
#3 seeds: Ohio State (#15)
#5 seeds: Michigan State (#21); Maryland (#28)
#6 seeds: Michigan (#25)
#9 seeds: Iowa (#29); Minnesota (#31); Illinois (#33)
#10 seeds: Nebraska (#36); Indiana (#37); Oregon (#40)

Washington (#52) is one of ESPN's first-four-out teams. The last four byes were Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, and Oregon.

ESPN has 10 SEC, 9 ACC, and 7 Big 12 teams making the tournament.
 
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Selection Committee issued its preliminary top 16 today:

1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Texas
4. Notre Dame
5. Southern California
6. LSU
7. UConn
8. NC State
9. TCU
10. Duke
11. North Carolina
12. Kansas State
13. Kentucky
14. Ohio State
15. Oklahoma
16. Tennessee
 
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NCAA reveal confirms that the legacy BIG teams are down this year. 1 legacy BIG team in the top 16 is a weak showing. Injuries at Maryland, Illinois, Nebraska & Minnesota really altered the BIG season. MSU still has USC, UCLA and OSU. Sparty still has a chance to make some noise.
 







TruthSeeker said:
The WBIT is better than the WNIT?
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Yes. Only teams who don't make the NCAA tournament or the WBIT are eligible for the WNIT.

Last year was the first year of the WBIT. Illinois made it to the WBIT and won the championship. Now they're fourth in the conference despite two major injuries. No matter whether the Gophers make the NCAA tournament or the WBIT, they're rebuilding and either tournament will help with that.
 



I still think this Gophers team can play there way into the NCAA tournament and be in the bracket without a doubt. This is a good basketball team. The Oregon and USC coaches both commented on what a really good basketball team the Gophers are. This Gophers team is capable of going on a run in the Big 10 tournament. Get them legs back refreshed and some rejuvenation from the fatigue of a season. This team has a toughness about them, that they did not in the past. This is meant as a compliment, I think the team is starting to reflect, and take on the mentality of the head coach. That mentality and toughness can carry them to the places they want to achieve.
 
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So far, it seems like the bracketology projections care only about the NET ranking, and don’t care anything about the new quad system. Will be interesting to see if the selection committee acts the same way. As of today, ESPN has the Gophers as a 10 seed, despite being 0-6 in Quad 1 games and 2-2 in Quad 2 games.
 

Illinois entered the rankings at 25, does that mean the Gophers finally beat a top 25 team? Actually I think you need to beat them while they are ranked? It’s still a good win but they need more
 

MaroonMagic said:
Yes. Only teams who don't make the NCAA tournament or the WBIT are eligible for the WNIT.

Last year was the first year of the WBIT. Illinois made it to the WBIT and won the championship. Now they're fourth in the conference despite two major injuries. No matter whether the Gophers make the NCAA tournament or the WBIT, they're rebuilding and either tournament will help with that.
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And the WBIT is owned and operated by the NCAA
 



Katogopher said:
Illinois entered the rankings at 25, does that mean the Gophers finally beat a top 25 team? Actually I think you need to beat them while they are ranked? It’s still a good win but they need more
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It's if they are ranked when you play them so the Gophers' 34-game losing streak against Top-25 teams is still intact. Even 1-14 Penn State has more Top-25 wins in Big Ten play this year than the Gophers do.
But Illinois is still only 31 in NET so that means Wisconsin (beating Michigan) and Northwestern (beating Utah non-conference) have more Quad 1 wins than the Gophers' zero. Only Purdue and Rutgers have a worse best win than the Gophers do.
 
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The super bright side is I cannot find a season this century in which Gopher WBB had zero losses against teams that didn't make the NCAA Tournament (I see two games when Whalen was injured in '04 and one without McCarville at the begging of the 04-05 season) so this could be a first if they can avoid a Big Ten Tournament letdown.

Edit: I guess Gopher WBB could lose to Washington and Washington miss the NCAA Tournament, by a thread, but I'm hoping with a week off the Gophers will beat them.
 

Mark Schindler, The Athletic:

Big Ten​

Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, UCLA, USC

Projected in: Iowa, Indiana, Oregon, Minnesota

On the bubble: Nebraska, Washington

TeamRecordNETSOSQuad 1Quad 2
Indiana16-939182-64-2
Minnesota19-833650-62-2
Nebraska17-938173-81-1
Washington14-1249251-80-3

Spotlight on: Nebraska​

It’s hard to get a read on the Huskers. I was ready to put them even deeper into the bubble this week, but then they beat Maryland by 20 points and boosted their standing quite a bit, enough to stabilize after dropping three straight games to tournament-bound teams.

However, I need to see Nebraska close out the season strong and win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament.

Nebraska played the 165th-ranked nonconference strength of schedule in Division I. The Cornhuskers handled it well, but after losing to Creighton or Georgia Tech, they need to close the regular season with gumption.

A statement win is so significant to evaluate stature in resume totality, and the Huskers are just 2-5 since a five-game winning streak in early January.
 

I have no idea why Nebraska would've been behind Minnesota since all I could figure is they are being punished for having played at Creighton and at Georgia Tech (both losses) instead of playing two more cupcakes.

Going off of Charlie Creme's last update on Tuesday, the good news over the past two days, from the First Four Out list St. Joseph's and George Mason lost so I can't imagine, unless the committee is biased, any of those teams should make the tournament without winning the A-10 Tournament (Richmond needs to win the A-10 Tournament because they could have a case for an at-large).
And in the Last Four In Virginia Tech blew a lead and lost in overtime at home to Stanford (who probably has more work to do to get back on the bubble).

1740109223805.png
 


drewhaus7 said:
Wow, at this point 13 of 18 Big 10 teams are expected in the NCAA tournament.
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The legacy BIG teams will likely have to surprise on the road in the 2nd round of the tourney to avoid a bad showing. The BIG had 11 host opportunities over the last 3 years, contributing to 8/9 Sweet 16s, 5/5 Elite Eights, and 2/2 Final Fours. As of today, OSU is trying to hang on to host, and could very well lose that spot with remaining games against MSU and Maryland, though MSU or Maryland could possibly take OSU's host opportunity. Still, barring some big surprises down the stretch and/or in the BIG tourney, the legacy BIG teams are likely looking at only 1 host opportunity, which is a big step down from the last 3 years.
 

13 teams almost can't avoid potential second round conference match-ups. Remember when we played MSU in the 2nd round in the Men's tournament?
 

BigTenGuy said:
The legacy BIG teams will likely have to surprise on the road in the 2nd round of the tourney to avoid a bad showing. The BIG had 11 host opportunities over the last 3 years, contributing to 8/9 Sweet 16s, 5/5 Elite Eights, and 2/2 Final Fours. As of today, OSU is trying to hang on to host, and could very well lose that spot with remaining games against MSU and Maryland, though MSU or Maryland could possibly take OSU's host opportunity. Still, barring some big surprises down the stretch and/or in the BIG tourney, the legacy BIG teams are likely looking at only 1 host opportunity, which is a big step down from the last 3 years.
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The Big Ten has been a lousy basketball conference for men and women for decades. They can't win championships and rarely make the Final Four. Let's not pretend it's good.

That means our coach has a great opportunity to breakthrough. The competition isn't daunting.
 


TruthSeeker said:
The Big Ten has been a lousy basketball conference for men and women for decades. They can't win championships and rarely make the Final Four. Let's not pretend it's good.

That means our coach has a great opportunity to breakthrough. The competition isn't daunting.
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You're right about championship droughts for Big Ten MBB and WBB, but I wouldn't lump the BIG men and women together in terms of rarity of Final Four appearances. The men frequently make the Final Four: 9 appearances since 2010, hardly a rare occurrence. You're also right about the BIG women, only 3 appearance since 2010, Maryland in its first year in the BIG, and then Iowa the past 2 years. 3 in 14 years isn't great, and reflects that BIG WBB was, at best, second tier for a long time.

Big Ten WBB has, however, been on a real uptick since COVID. In the past 4 NCAA tournaments, the BIG has a really good NCAA Tournament record, very competitive with the other major conferences, for the first time in a long time:

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Unfortunately, while UCLA and USC seem poised for post-season success under the Big Ten banner, the legacy BIG teams are likely going to need to pull road upsets in the NCAA Tournament to avoid a big step down from their recent success.
 

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