Nate Sandell: What is the base expectation for Jerry Kill in Year 5?

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per Sandell:

Even after the successes of the past two seasons and their first New Year's Day bowl appearance in five decades, the Gophers remain in search of widespread respect, both in the Big Ten and nationally. And that's the way Kill likes it.

"I don't think there is any question about that," Kill said. "Our job is to have a chip on your shoulder and go play. That's what it's always been, pretty much every place I've been at."

Still, significant milestones in the team's revival as yet haven't been accomplished. The obvious is first a division title. Minnesota recaptured the Little Brown Jug from Michigan last year after a nine-year absence, but the coveted Paul Bunyan Axe, which has been in Wisconsin's possession since 2004, remains the lone rivalry trophy Kill hasn't won. And despite three consecutive appearances, Minnesota hasn't won a bowl game in 11 years.

As has been the case in his first four seasons, Kill's team doesn't have to rely on dramatics for Year 5 to be a success, but the forward progression it has shown must stay in motion.

Of the 22 coaches from a Power-5 conference team with more than five seasons at their current program, 17 of them posted at least seven wins in their fifth season, with 10 coaches tallying nine or more victories (Bob Stoops, Mike Gundy, Kirk Ferentz, Mark Dantonio, Kyle Whittingham, Nick Saban, Mark Richt, Les Miles, Dabo Swinney and Jimbo Fisher).

That, in a way, serves as a benchmark for Minnesota. The Gophers are at the point where anything less than seven wins, not including a bowl game, would go down as a major disappointment. Minnesota hasn't shed its underdog image yet, and may not want to. But expectations have undoubtedly reached the next level for Kill.

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/...se_expectation_for_Jerry_Kill_in_Year_5082415

Go Gophers!!
 

Still, significant milestones in the team's revival as yet haven't been accomplished. The obvious is first a division title. Minnesota recaptured the Little Brown Jug from Michigan last year after a nine-year absence, but the coveted Paul Bunyan Axe, which has been in Wisconsin's possession since 2004, remains the lone rivalry trophy Kill hasn't won. And despite three consecutive appearances, Minnesota hasn't won a bowl game in 11 years.[/url]

I would call some of these significant. They are certainly milestones.

"First New Year's bowl game since the Kennedy administration", "Little Brown Jug", "back to back against Nebraska", "back to back 8-win seasons"...

Does it mean we are satisfied? No. Does it mean we are done? No.
 

I don't think it's realistic to express a single year expectation. A goal, sure, but not an expectation. I'd look at it over five years. In the next five seasons, I'd expect UM to:

1. 14-2 in non-conf
2. 30-14 in conference
3. 2-3 v Wisconsin
4. 3-2 v Iowa
5. 3-2 in bowls
6. 1 BiG West title

Blast away.
 

Make that 2-3 B10 west titles, & you have a deal. [emoji6]

Sent from my XT907 using Tapatalk
 

I don't think it's realistic to express a single year expectation. A goal, sure, but not an expectation. I'd look at it over five years. In the next five seasons, I'd expect UM to:

1. 14-2 in non-conf
2. 30-14 in conference
3. 2-3 v Wisconsin
4. 3-2 v Iowa
5. 3-2 in bowls
6. 1 BiG West title

Blast away.

I would look for 3-2 over Wisconsin
4-1 over Iowa
3-2 over Nebraska

Go Gophers
 


I think Kill has proved himself enough to where I don't really "expect" things based on the year. He has elevated the program to its modern day ceiling (not to say we can't work on breaking through the ceiling - the facilities will help with that) and it will take a couple down years before I start grumbling again about goals and deadlines.
 

I think Kill has proved himself enough to where I don't really "expect" things based on the year. He has elevated the program to its modern day ceiling (not to say we can't work on breaking through the ceiling - the facilities will help with that) and it will take a couple down years before I start grumbling again about goals and deadlines.

He is at a point where one bad year won't have people calling for his head but the reality is that at this point failing to qualify for a bowl game would be a massive disappointment. The reality is we should be in contention in a wide open West but as a baseline floor not getting to 6 wins would be really bad. Outside of that the big things are beating Wisconsin and winning a bowl game. The first NYD bowl thing in .....gets overblown because under the current system a NYD bowl does not mean the same thing as it used to when there were far fewer bowls and that was the premiere day for bowl games across the country. It was a nice accomplishment and a step up in bowl class some last year but there is still plenty of room for improvement on that front as well.

I agree with the assessment from the final paragraph of the posted part of the article where anything less then that (7 regular season wins and a bowl game) would be disappointing at this point.
 

Anything less than 8 wins is a disappointment to me and I expect at least 9. People use the schedule as an excuse, but it is nearly identical to last year. Except this year the Gophers get TCU, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Michigan at home. If anything our schedule is slightly easier this year. Sure Maxx and Cobb are big losses, but every team loses good players each year. Expecting less than 8 wins is just sad to me.
 

He is at a point where one bad year won't have people calling for his head but the reality is that at this point failing to qualify for a bowl game would be a massive disappointment. The reality is we should be in contention in a wide open West but as a baseline floor not getting to 6 wins would be really bad. Outside of that the big things are beating Wisconsin and winning a bowl game. The first NYD bowl thing in .....gets overblown because under the current system a NYD bowl does not mean the same thing as it used to when there were far fewer bowls and that was the premiere day for bowl games across the country. It was a nice accomplishment and a step up in bowl class some last year but there is still plenty of room for improvement on that front as well.

I agree with the assessment from the final paragraph of the posted part of the article where anything less then that (7 regular season wins and a bowl game) would be disappointing at this point.
The brick-by-brick theme is new and catchy, but the premise is the same everywhere Kill & Co. have been. Raising expectations is the result, justifiably so. Thus, most of your points are valid. I take exception, however, with dismissing the NYD bowl accomplishment, since the "current system" has been in place for a long time and hadn't been done. We'll all be disappointed if this team flops, but there are many reasons to be fired up about this season. With those higher expectations comes the possibility of a huge letdown, but please enjoy the ride. From what I've read in the last year yeas, most Gopher fans would have taken the rise to this point without question before Kill arrived.
 



"First New Year's bowl game since the Kennedy administration",

Ridiculous. Had the same or similar bowl games been played on New Year's over the years, then you may be able to argue a comp.. but the reality is it's absurd to heap praise on Kill for playing in a NY bowl game in 2015.
 

Ridiculous. Had the same or similar bowl games been played on New Year's over the years, then you may be able to argue a comp.. but the reality is it's absurd to heap praise on Kill for playing in a NY bowl game in 2015.

Aren't you the one who said Kill would be gone by now?
 

Ridiculous. Had the same or similar bowl games been played on New Year's over the years, then you may be able to argue a comp.. but the reality is it's absurd to heap praise on Kill for playing in a NY bowl game in 2015.

More of your typical bullish*t. Nobody's "heaping praise" and nobody sure as hell is satisfied with losing. Fact is, it is the first New Year's bowl game since the 60's and that caliber of game has been played for quite a while without the Gophers getting a whiff of getting into one. However, considering the state that this program has been in, it's an accomplishment those of us without some weird personal issues consider noteworthy. Next you're going to claim the victory over Michigan shouldn't even count because they were so bad. What's absurd is your view of yourself as some sort of sports savant when you basically are a pathetic jock-sniffer.
 




The brick-by-brick theme is new and catchy, but the premise is the same everywhere Kill & Co. have been. Raising expectations is the result, justifiably so. Thus, most of your points are valid. I take exception, however, with dismissing the NYD bowl accomplishment, since the "current system" has been in place for a long time and hadn't been done. We'll all be disappointed if this team flops, but there are many reasons to be fired up about this season. With those higher expectations comes the possibility of a huge letdown, but please enjoy the ride. From what I've read in the last year yeas, most Gopher fans would have taken the rise to this point without question before Kill arrived.

The trajectory of the program the past few years is exactly what Gopher fans wanted to see post Brewster. Now we find out if Kill can keep that upward trend going in order to get out well beyond the Mason years. So yep going into this year there is a ton of reason for optimism. What will be interesting is to see the reaction if the team levels off or slips back now that Kill is in and established. If he is doing what we all think and hope he is doing they should absolutely be contenders in the West this season. If they are anything less it means things took a step back in year 5.

As to the bowl thing, the game last year was certainly a step up in class some from what we have played prior to this. My point is simply that years ago if you were playing on NYD it meant you were one of the elite in college football. That is no longer the case with the way the system is today as there are many games on NYD that would not have been there in the past. So when someone says first New Year's Day game since the Kennedy administration it sounds great but when you look at it in 1961 there were 11 games and 4 of them were played on NYD as the final day of the season....In 2014 there were 39 bowl games 11 of which were played on or after NYD. NYD is still an important day for college football and I love that the Gophers played on it but at the same time the accomplishment does not carry nearly the weight that it would have in the past. These days if you are not in the CFP there really is little difference in playing on NYD vs. playing a day or two before NYD.
 



Beat Wisconsin. Win a bowl game. Pretty simple.

100% nailed it.

As simple as it may sound, accomplishing these two "goals" almost certainly means that all other reasonable expectations have been met or exceeded.
 

100% nailed it.

As simple as it may sound, accomplishing these two "goals" almost certainly means that all other reasonable expectations have been met or exceeded.

Yup, those two things would mean a successful season...even if we "only" win six regular season games...but I think we will accomplish more. I don't care what anybody says about excuses...the schedule is hard!
 

Six wins, one of them over Wisconsin, would be good, given a terrible schedule: TCU, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus tough road assignments at Col. State, Northwestern and Iowa. Remember that last year we barely beat Purdue and NW at home and were upset by Illinois on the road (and that was with Maxx and Cobb). Next year's schedule offers much better W/L possibilities.
 

Six wins, one of them over Wisconsin, would be good, given a terrible schedule: TCU, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus tough road assignments at Col. State, Northwestern and Iowa. Remember that last year we barely beat Purdue and NW at home and were upset by Illinois on the road (and that was with Maxx and Cobb). Next year's schedule offers much better W/L possibilities.

Gonna be tough with a new QB and coaching staff.

:cool02:
 

Six wins, one of them over Wisconsin, would be good, given a terrible schedule: TCU, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus tough road assignments at Col. State, Northwestern and Iowa. Remember that last year we barely beat Purdue and NW at home and were upset by Illinois on the road (and that was with Maxx and Cobb). Next year's schedule offers much better W/L possibilities.

You, pessimistic about the Gophers?!?!?!? I'm shocked!!!!
 

Ridiculous. Had the same or similar bowl games been played on New Year's over the years, then you may be able to argue a comp.. but the reality is it's absurd to heap praise on Kill for playing in a NY bowl game in 2015.


Well, the fact of matter is the Citrus Bowl has been a Jan. 1 bowl game for nearly 30 years and has had a Big Ten tie-in (B1G #2 or B1G #3) for nearly a quarter of a century. So, while maybe not "dating back the Kennedy Administration," Kill did do something no other coach at the U has done in that three decade stretch. I mean why even mention it, right?

But, then again, only the enlightened will really know.
 

This is easy. The expectation is to be in the hunt for a West title on the last Saturday of the season. That will get us a good bowl game.

To me, its not so much who we beat although I am really sick and tired of losing to Wisky.

Its a tough task being a contender rather than a pretender but Coach Kill has got to that level in his other gigs.
 

Six wins, one of them over Wisconsin, would be good, given a terrible schedule: TCU, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, plus tough road assignments at Col. State, Northwestern and Iowa. Remember that last year we barely beat Purdue and NW at home and were upset by Illinois on the road (and that was with Maxx and Cobb). Next year's schedule offers much better W/L possibilities.

I already harped on this on the first page, but it's the same schedule as last year except we go to Colorado State who lost their good coach to Florida and QB to the NFL. We get all of the tougher teams at home except Ohio State. So someone tell me how this schedule is worse than last year and why we shouldn't expect at least 8 wins?
 

I already harped on this on the first page, but it's the same schedule as last year except we go to Colorado State who lost their good coach to Florida and QB to the NFL. We get all of the tougher teams at home except Ohio State. So someone tell me how this schedule is worse than last year and why we shouldn't expect at least 8 wins?

Go game-by-game:

vs. TCU - @ TCU - This year easier
vs. Eastern Illinois - vs. Kent St. - This year harder
vs. MTSU - vs. Ohio - This year harder
vs. SJSU - @ CSU - This year much harder
@ Michigan - vs. Michigan - This year easier, though I think Michigan will be improved
vs. NW - @ NW - This year harder
vs. Purdue - @ Purdue - This year harder
@ Illinois - vs. Illinois - This year easier
vs. Iowa - @ Iowa - This year harder (some would argue much harder - haven't won in Iowa City since 1999)
vs. OSU - @ OSU - This year harder (some would argue much harder - haven't won in Columbus since 2000)
@ Nebraska - vs. Nebraska - This year easier
@ Wisconsin - vs. Wisconsin - This year easier

So in a 12 game schedule, you have 7 harder games and 5 easier games as compared to 2014. Further, the easier games aren't much easier, while the harder games are much harder. I don't think it's really much of a debate that this is a much tougher schedule than last year. We're the only team in the country scheduled to play both #1 and #2 in the country, and we also have to go on the road to two places where we haven't won in 15 years or more.
 

Go game-by-game:

vs. Eastern Illinois - vs. Kent St. - This year harder
vs. MTSU - vs. Ohio - This year harder

So in a 12 game schedule, you have 7 harder games and 5 easier games as compared to 2014.

Although the two I picked out may be "harder" than last year's opponents, both would be monumental upsets if we lost.

I think it would be more fair to say 5 harder, 5 easier, and two should be cakewalks, 3 with Colorado. I'm calling it. It will be a drubbing.
 

Although the two I picked out may be "harder" than last year's opponents, both would be monumental upsets if we lost.

I think it would be more fair to say 5 harder, 5 easier, and two should be cakewalks, 3 with Colorado. I'm calling it. It will be a drubbing.

You are correct, sir. If anything, those two are probably a toss-up compared to the two last year. And I agree, I think @ CSU will be a comfortable win, but it's definitely a much harder game than hosting SJSU last year.
 

Go game-by-game:

vs. TCU - @ TCU - This year easier
vs. Eastern Illinois - vs. Kent St. - This year harder
vs. MTSU - vs. Ohio - This year harder
vs. SJSU - @ CSU - This year much harder
@ Michigan - vs. Michigan - This year easier, though I think Michigan will be improved
vs. NW - @ NW - This year harder
vs. Purdue - @ Purdue - This year harder
@ Illinois - vs. Illinois - This year easier
vs. Iowa - @ Iowa - This year harder (some would argue much harder - haven't won in Iowa City since 1999)
vs. OSU - @ OSU - This year harder (some would argue much harder - haven't won in Columbus since 2000)
@ Nebraska - vs. Nebraska - This year easier
@ Wisconsin - vs. Wisconsin - This year easier

So in a 12 game schedule, you have 7 harder games and 5 easier games as compared to 2014. Further, the easier games aren't much easier, while the harder games are much harder. I don't think it's really much of a debate that this is a much tougher schedule than last year. We're the only team in the country scheduled to play both #1 and #2 in the country, and we also have to go on the road to two places where we haven't won in 15 years or more.

Where we disagree is the non-conference.
MTSU vs Ohio is a wash, they were both 6-6 last year.
SJSU was 3-8, Kent State was 2-9. I'd say that's easier.
Then CSU is a significant upgrade over Eastern Illinois but like I said CSU lost most of their offense outside of Higgins.
I don't have any argument with your analysis of the B1G games. So really the way I see it is 6 easier, 5 harder, and one wash, which makes this year's schedule slightly easier.
 

The expectation should be 7 win minimum with a west title in year 6 or 7.
 

I only started watching Gopher football in 2010. It seems so crazy when I read that we have only played one New Year's bowl game in the last 50 years. I guess I feel a little spoiled there since I only had to wait 5 years.
 




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