Myron blog: Top bracketologists down on Gophers' NCAA tourney hopes

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The "winning without Nolen" issue

It's a valid point by bracketologists, but if the Gophers win 3 of these final 4 (far from a given, but doable) they will have answered that question more than adequately.

By my way of thinking, winning 3 of 4 would mean the Gophers had a record of "5.5" wins and 6 losses without Al, with potentially 2+ road wins (also Iowa & perhaps Northwestern) and between 2.5-3.5 quality wins (vs. teams legitimately competing for a NCAA bid). ... Michigan (perhaps totaling 1.5, that's when Al got hurt), Michigan State and Penn State.

5-6 (or 5.5 and 6 if you'll go with me on the half without Al theory);) all things considered would prove that the Gophers were capable without Al. It certainly wouldn't be enough to leave them out of the tournament simply because Al wasn't available. Those wins vs. North Carolina and West Virginia and let's not forget surging Purdue still happened.

Now if we only win 2 of these final 4, then I think it's a legitimate issue and the Gophers would have to do significant damage (2 wins) in Indy just to get a sniff.

If the Gopher basketball program/U Media Relations has any brains whatsoever, they should be getting the word out that they expect Al back for the Big Ten tourney, even if they know darn well he's not going to return. Plant that seed in the Selection Committee's mind that he'll be back. It's called playing the game.

As a friend of mine (Ope3) pointed out to me, think Iowa and Luke Recker 10 years ago. Iowa was a bubble team and knew darn well the injured Recker wasn't going to be back, but they consistently & continually made public statements he would be ready for the NCAA Tournament. It ended up being a moot point -- the Hawkeyes won the Big Ten tourney without him -- but the message Iowa was sending was very clear.
 

SelectionSunday said:
It's a valid point by bracketologists, but if the Gophers win 3 of these final 4 (far from a given, but doable) they will have answered that question more than adequately.

By my way of thinking, winning 3 of 4 would mean the Gophers had a record of "5.5" wins and 6 losses without Al, with potentially 2+ road wins (also Iowa & perhaps Northwestern) and between 2.5-3.5 quality wins (vs. teams legitimately competing for a NCAA bid). ... Michigan (perhaps totaling 1.5, that's when Al got hurt), Michigan State and Penn State.

5-6 (or 5.5 and 6 if you'll go with me on the half without Al theory);) all things considered would prove that the Gophers were capable without Al. It certainly wouldn't be enough to leave them out of the tournament simply because Al wasn't available. Those wins vs. North Carolina and West Virginia still happened.

Now if we only win 2 of these final 4, then I think it's a legitimate issue and the Gophers would have to do significant damage (2 wins) in Indy just to get a sniff.

If the Gopher basketball program/U Media Relations has any brains whatsoever, they should be getting the word out that they expect Al back for the Big Ten tourney, even if they know darn well he's not going to return. Plant that seed in the Selection Committee's mind that he'll be back. It's called playing the game.

As a friend of mine (Ope3) pointed out to me, think Iowa and Luke Recker 10 years ago. Iowa was a bubble team and knew darn well the injured Recker wasn't going to be back, but they publicly stated he would be ready for the NCAA Tournament. It ended up being a moot point. ... the Hawkeyes won the Big Ten tourney without him.
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Including the BTT, 4 more wins and we're safe. 3 total will make me nervous, but I trust your judgment, SS. All that said, I see tonight as a must win of sorts. The losing just has to stop.
 

No doubt tonight is a biggie. In that scenario of the Gophers going 3-1 down the stretch, this is the most important one to get. Beating MSU certainly would carry a little more cache, even if it is a struggling Spartan team.

I feel real good about 3-1 (9-9) being enough to get the Gophers safely into the NCAA. But I can't argue with you; an extra win in Indy would allow us a lot less "discomfort" on Selection Sunday.
 

Options

Option A - 22 W on March 13th = in. 21 W = maybe. 20 W = doubtful. And < 20 W = nope.

Option B - W a game on March 13th = in. (That would mean Gophers W B10T automatic bid)

Work to do.
 


Obviously no one knows until Selection Sunday, but I think 9-9 in the conference and one Big Ten Tourney win would be good enough.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Option A - 22 W on March 13th = in. 21 W = maybe. 20 W = doubtful. And < 20 W = nope.

Option B - W a game on March 13th = in. (That would mean Gophers W B10T automatic bid)

Work to do.
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You keep saying this, and I have no idea why. 20 wins = in. 21 wins = dead certain mortal lock, there's no possible way we'd be out. How is this a maybe? 19 wins = probably out.
 

Mass MD said:
Obviously no one knows until Selection Sunday, but I think 9-9 in the conference and one Big Ten Tourney win would be good enough.
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Perhaps. That would be 21-11 on March 13th. The B10T W would probably be over a lower rated B10 opponent (Thursday games) if so.
 

jmag21 said:
You keep saying this, and I have no idea why. 20 wins = in. 21 wins = dead certain mortal lock, there's no possible way we'd be out. How is this a maybe? 19 wins = probably out.
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Path to 21 W = W over Penn St, Mich, NWU but L to Mich St. That's 20 W going into B10 T. Thursday W (probably) over one of the bottom 4 teams in B10T = 21 W.

Possible but I don't see that as a lock.
 



Let me put it this way FOT, if we get to 21 wins and don't make it in, I will be upset with the selection committee more than the gopher squad.
 

Some of it still depends on how many bid stealers there are popping up in the next couple of weeks.
 

I just think tonight is very, very important. Because with all the talk about how much of a disappointment Michigan State has been, getting swept by the Spartys would certainly leave a black mark.
 




If we're considered "in" right now, I would think 3 wins is the magic number at least to make this happen. 2 only works with a BTT run like last year IMO, or at least a couple wins there. We have to prove we can win some games with this current outfit. Tonight would be a good start.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Path to 21 W = W over Penn St, Mich, NWU but L to Mich St. That's 20 W going into B10 T. Thursday W (probably) over one of the bottom 4 teams in B10T = 21 W.

Possible but I don't see that as a lock.
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If we go 3-1 to finish 20-10 (9-9) heading to Indy (no matter what combo the 3 Ws are in) and then add a win (and loss) to get to 21-11 on March 13th....we're in the NCAA. Period. Our RPI would be in the 30s, which is a cinch for any Big Ten team. Some years 21-11 might make one nervous, but with a light bubble and limited potential bid stealers, 21-11 puts us in with some room to spare (probably an 8-9 seed). Get to 21 W's and getting in is not the concern. The concern right now is coming up with the necessary four wins to get to 21 W's.
 

If we finish 3-1, and even lose the first game in the B10 tourney, I still think we're in. The bubble is just terrible this year.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
If we finish 3-1, and even lose the first game in the B10 tourney, I still think we're in. The bubble is just terrible this year.
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Probably. But our most likely seed at 9-9 is #6 I'd say. And a loss to Iowa isn't good for anyone. There's a decent chance we could get the #5 seed at 9-9 though I don't think the tie-breakers with Ill or MSU will favor us.
 

Mass MD said:
Let me put it this way FOT, if we get to 21 wins and don't make it in, I will be upset with the selection committee more than the gopher squad.
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Let's just look at this: Do the Gophers pass the 'eye test?" Right now...no. Any half educated basketball mind can see that Minnesota just isn't a good team without Nolen. Not even a decent team really. They are just flat out bad. HOWEVER. There is ample opportunity to change this in the final four games. Beating fellow bubble teams in Michigan would be huge.
 


MaroonGopher said:
Let's just look at this: Do the Gophers pass the 'eye test?" Right now...no. Any half educated basketball mind can see that Minnesota just isn't a good team without Nolen. Not even a decent team really. They are just flat out bad. HOWEVER. There is ample opportunity to change this in the final four games. Beating fellow bubble teams in Michigan would be huge.
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Gophers were 15-4 with Nolen and/or Joseph available.

Gophers are 2-5 with neither available (over last month).

Gophers NEED to win 4 of next 6 (minimum). Work to do.
 

howeda7 said:
Probably. But our most likely seed at 9-9 is #6 I'd say. And a loss to Iowa isn't good for anyone. There's a decent chance we could get the #5 seed at 9-9 though I don't think the tie-breakers with Ill or MSU will favor us.
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I doubt 9-9 gets us a 6 seed, let alone a 5, but hey, I would love to be wrong.
 

We're talking Big Ten Tournament seed, right?

If so, Gophs have a solid shot at #5 with a 9-9 mark, certainly would be no lower than #6 considering the teams we're playing down the stretch and who the teams we're competing with (Illinois, Michigan, MSU & Penn State) have left on their schedules.
 

Mass MD said:
I doubt 9-9 gets us a 6 seed, let alone a 5, but hey, I would love to be wrong.
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Yes. BTT seed to be clear. Sorry. Sadly no such NCAA seed is forthcoming under any circumstances. If only it were 6 weeks ago.:(
 

howeda7 said:
Probably. But our most likely seed at 9-9 is #6 I'd say. And a loss to Iowa isn't good for anyone. There's a decent chance we could get the #5 seed at 9-9 though I don't think the tie-breakers with Ill or MSU will favor us.
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I think if we beat MSU tonight the tiebreaker with them would favor us since we split with them and beat a better team (Purdue). Please correct me if I am wrong though.
 


fryguy,

It would be the case if Purdue and OSU tie. Or if Purdue finishes second alone.

If Wisconsin and Purdue are tied, however, then the tiebreaker would move further along as the Spartans beat Wisconsin.
 

anonymous said:
fryguy,

It would be the case if Purdue and OSU tie. Or if Purdue finishes second alone.

If Wisconsin and Purdue are tied, however, then the tiebreaker would move further along as the Spartans beat Wisconsin.
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Right, thanks. I was assuming current standings hold at the top
 

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