Myron blog: Free throws, defense among major concerns for Gophers

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myron needs to go tempo free
The Gophers and their fastest pace in the Big Ten create a lot of his "areas of concern" that actually aren't areas of concern and create some inaccurate and misleading stats.
 

Minnesota's allegedly worst in the Big Ten and 182nd in the country scoring defense is actually 65th in the country and 9th in the big ten

They also have the 65th toughest strength of schedule and the toughest in the Big Ten. Myron says ESPN has the Gopher strength of schedule much easier. Where on ESPN do they even calculate this?

And he starts the article with rebounds per game. Oy
 

From the Barn said:
Minnesota's allegedly worst in the Big Ten and 182nd in the country scoring defense is actually 65th in the country and 9th in the big ten

They also have the 65th toughest strength of schedule and the toughest in the Big Ten. Myron says ESPN has the Gopher strength of schedule much easier. Where on ESPN do they even calculate this?

And he starts the article with rebounds per game. Oy
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Context matters. But his point is still correct. Our defense has not been good, especially our perimeter defense. 9th in the Big Ten is still bad and, misleading stats aside, you can see the issues as you watch them play.

Hopefully a week of practice and the return of Nolen puts things in order. This is a team that can go a long ways if the defense is good.
 

If he is going to parse out three point defense and overall defense, he should at least acknowledge that it is only 3 pt defense that is the problem. Gopher opponents make only 40.4% of their two point shots, which is 20th best in the country and 2nd in the Big Ten.
 


From the Barn said:
Minnesota's allegedly worst in the Big Ten and 182nd in the country scoring defense is actually 65th in the country and 9th in the big ten

They also have the 65th toughest strength of schedule and the toughest in the Big Ten. Myron says ESPN has the Gopher strength of schedule much easier. Where on ESPN do they even calculate this?

And he starts the article with rebounds per game. Oy
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A. Don't tell me what I "should" do. I have editors and a 2-year-old who handle that.

B. You're wrong.

Through Dec. 21, they had the worst scoring defense (67.7 points per game) in the Big Ten.

Link: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confldrs.html

And that mark registers at No. 182 in the country.

Link (through Dec. 19, most recent NCAA.com report): http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings

According to ESPN.com's insiderpi (you need the Insider subscription to access), they have the 141st-ranked nonconf SOS.

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/135
 

Myron P. Medcalf said:
A. Don't tell me what I "should" do. I have editors and a 2-year-old who handle that.

B. You're wrong.

Through Dec. 21, they had the worst scoring defense (67.7 points per game) in the Big Ten.

Link: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confldrs.html

And that mark registers at No. 182 in the country.

Link (through Dec. 19, most recent NCAA.com report): http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings

According to ESPN.com's insiderpi (you need the Insider subscription to access), they have the 141st-ranked nonconf SOS.

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/135
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Oh snap!
 

Myron P. Medcalf said:
According to ESPN.com's insiderpi (you need the Insider subscription to access), they have the 141st-ranked nonconf SOS.

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/135
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According to Sagarin, which should be close to ESPN:
Minnesota's Strength of Schedule ranks 3rd in the Big Ten only behind Michigan State and Illinois.
Their record against top 50 teams is 3-0, which is 1st in the Big Ten.
Minnesota's 10-1 record is tied for 3rd in the Big Ten.
The Big Ten is the top rated conference.

That all looks great until you see that Minnesota is rated as the 7th best team in the Big Ten. Confusing, isn't it?

It's too early in the season for the computer rankings to mean much. They'll be more valid in another couple weeks.

I agree the Gophers need to improve their 3 point defense, which seems to break down late in a possession. And they will lose games at the line if they don't improve that too.
 

Myron P. Medcalf said:
A. Don't tell me what I "should" do. I have editors and a 2-year-old who handle that.

B. You're wrong.

Through Dec. 21, they had the worst scoring defense (67.7 points per game) in the Big Ten.

Link: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2010-2011/confldrs.html

And that mark registers at No. 182 in the country.

Link (through Dec. 19, most recent NCAA.com report): http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings

According to ESPN.com's insiderpi (you need the Insider subscription to access), they have the 141st-ranked nonconf SOS.

Link: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/teamId/135
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You are using the wrong type of stats. Kenpom. Look it up.

You are using context free stats that don't mean a whole lot. Averaging x number of rebounds per game? That tells you absolutely nothing.

X number of points given up per game tells you a little something, but it is still largely dependent on the pace at which the game is played. Team A allows 70 points per game. Team B allows 60 points per game. Which team has the better defense? You actually have no way of knowing. If team A has 70 possessions per game and Team B has 60 possessions per game, their defenses are equal. So, sure the Gophers give up more points than anyone else in the Big Ten, but they also have the most possessions per game, so they don't actually have the worst defense. It ranks 9th. It surely needs to improve, but it isn't the worst in the conference. Penn State and Northwestern are actually much worse. And when you look at points allowed per possession, an actually meaningful statistic, the Gophers rank 65th in the country.

I still take major issues with listing three point defense and scoring defense as two separate issues. You wouldn't ever hear a doctor (and I know doctors, and you sir are no doctor) say that the patient has two big problems. The first is that they are drowning. The second is that they can't breathe. They are the same problems. As I mentioned earlier, nearly everything about Minnesota's defense is elite except three point defense. 20th in two point defense, 9th in blocked shots, 28th in steals,. There is only one problem with the defense, and it is the 3 point defense.

As to strength of schedule. Here is where I got my number. http://kenpom.com/summary.php?s=RankAdjDE which is the toughest in the Big Ten. How many teams according to ESPN have tougher strengths of schedule than the Gophers?

And you obviously don't have to listen to what I think you should do, but it will make you a better reporter, more accurately describe the successes and failure of the team from a statistical stand point, and better inform your readers. Aren't these your goals?
 



Why don't you two just go ahead, take it outside and see who can pee farther? Seriously, both of you diminish your individual contributions by goading each other!
 

vaporboy said:
Why don't you two just go ahead, take it outside and see who can pee farther? Seriously, both of you diminish your individual contributions by goading each other!
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I don't think so. Somebody needs to correct these people for spreading wrong info around. Thanks to people like "From the Barn", "SS", "FOT" and many other smart fans on this board. Without them, we would have read crap and nothing more.

Go Gophers
 

The thing is, tempo-free stats are oh so easy to understand, and you can just look at kenpom.com and be ready to go. A good portion of the media has figured it out.
 

From the Barn said:
The thing is, tempo-free stats are oh so easy to understand, and you can just look at kenpom.com and be ready to go. A good portion of the media has figured it out.
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The caveat about kenpom.com is their rankings devalue teams like Minnesota that expend more energy on defense to prepare for future close games, use more players to build depth, and are willing to keep scores close to accomplish those objectives. While their rankings reward teams that concentrate on scoring maximum points no matter the competition. Their model is another tool to help evaluate a team, and it is a good one to look at, but it shouldn't be the only one to use.
 



It's a marathon

If I'm Tubby do I want my players expending energy early in the season against cupcake OOC foes to show Holers that we can play tough D or do I not get the kid's primed to tournament level play until tournament time? Just askin.
 

WAGopher said:
The caveat about kenpom.com is their rankings devalue teams like Minnesota that expend more energy on defense to prepare for future close games, use more players to build depth, and are willing to keep scores close to accomplish those objectives. While their rankings reward teams that concentrate on scoring maximum points no matter the competition. Their model is another tool to help evaluate a team, and it is a good one to look at, but it shouldn't be the only one to use.
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It is much better than the alternatives though, like looking at points allowed per game, rebounds, per game, etc. And I'm not sure what you mean by expending more energy on defense to prepare for close games. Are you suggesting Tubby keeps it close just for practicing defense? Margin of victory is a product of both offense and defense.
 

From the Barn said:
And I'm not sure what you mean by expending more energy on defense to prepare for close games. Are you suggesting Tubby keeps it close just for practicing defense? Margin of victory is a product of both offense and defense.
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I guess I could have worded that better, but when teams focus on defense they usually score fewer points then if they get into a shooting match, and thus the point differential is also closer. I don't think Tubby intentionally keeps it close, but that's what happens when your squad is defensive minded.

I like Tubby's pre-season approach and think it bodes well for a strong conference showing.
 

MN1nAZ said:
If I'm Tubby do I want my players expending energy early in the season against cupcake OOC foes to show Holers that we can play tough D or do I not get the kid's primed to tournament level play until tournament time? Just askin.
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If I'm coaching, I'm demanding my players bust their a$$ every second they're out on the court, simple as that. If I am concerned about one of these young guys 'expending energy early in the season', they won't be on the court.

It sounds like your question is essentially, "shouldn't we take it easy while we're out on the floor?" My answer would be no.

From the Barn said:
I still take major issues (sic) with listing three point defense and scoring defense as two separate issues. You wouldn't ever hear a doctor (and I know doctors, and you sir are no doctor) say that the patient has two big problems. The first is that they are drowning. The second is that they can't breathe. They are the same problems. As I mentioned earlier, nearly everything about Minnesota's defense is elite except three point defense.
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Ugh.. I get what you're trying to say, but the doctor example is not a very good one. (also to call our defense 'elite' except three point defense is quite a stretch)

In the scenario of someone being just barely alive, 10 feet underwater, let's call drowning 'A' and we'll label not being able to breathe 'B'. In that scenario, if A is occurring, does that mean B is occuring? Sure. If B is occurring, does that mean A is occuring. Yes.

In the scenario of a team playing basketball, let's call 'poor three point defense' 'X' and 'poor scoring defense' 'Y'. If X is occurring, does that mean Y is occurring? No. If Y is occuring, does that mean X is occuring? Absolutely not.

So the differentiation of poor three point defense and poor scoring defense is not a 'major issue' for me. In this particular circumstance, poor three point defense is causing what is being described as poor scoring defense... but you can have one without the other.

OK, I needed a quick break from writing legal mumbo-jumbo... sorry for even jumping into this thread. From the Barn, you are not in the holiday spirit, my man... I like Myron.
 

WAGopher said:
I guess I could have worded that better, but when teams focus on defense they usually score fewer points then if they get into a shooting match, and thus the point differential is also closer. I don't think Tubby intentionally keeps it close, but that's what happens when your squad is defensive minded.

I like Tubby's pre-season approach and think it bodes well for a strong conference showing.
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Defense minded meaning bad at offense? 5 of his top 10 teams are also in the top 10 defensive teams.

The Gophers aren't being "punished". They just haven't been able to consistently win games by large margins.
 


While I agree there is more to defense than just points allowed, Myron is not the only one pointing out our defensive woes.

Sports Illustrated
 


From the Barn said:
Defense minded meaning bad at offense? 5 of his top 10 teams are also in the top 10 defensive teams.

The Gophers aren't being "punished". They just haven't been able to consistently win games by large margins.
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Hey FTB, I never said that. Focusing more on defense doesn't mean there's a bad offense. The reason defensive minded teams score less is because there are fewer overall possessions, while a shootout is going to yield more possessions which equals more chances to score.

I happen to love Tubby's style. I like watching teams that have a good to great defense with a talented offense.
 

WAGopher said:
Hey FTB, I never said that. Focusing more on defense doesn't mean there's a bad offense. The reason defensive minded teams score less is because there are fewer overall possessions, while a shootout is going to yield more possessions which equals more chances to score.

I happen to love Tubby's style. I like watching teams that have a good to great defense with a talented offense.
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Fewer possessions means defensive oriented? You'll need to work on your definitions a bit more. Of the top 10 defensive teams, 7 are in the 100 in possessions per game. Of the teams that have the top ten fewest possessions per game, 3 have a top 100 defense.

If anything, fewer possessions means better offense. Of the top ten offenses in the country in terms of efficiency, 6 rank 180th or lower in terms of possessions per game.

And what do you do with Mizzou? Everything they do revolves around their defense, yet they play at the 18th fastest pace in the country. And what about the many teams that play the princeton offense, who care more about offense than anything, and play at an incredibly slow pace. NU for instance, ranks #259 in possessions per game but is just awful at defense and fantastic at offense. By your logic, NU is a defense oriented team.

There isn't much correlation between fewer possessions and better defense. You seem to be attaching labels that reflect your own perception.


Do you have any examples of "defense oriented teams?"
 

From the Barn said:
Fewer possessions means defensive oriented? You'll need to work on your definitions a bit more. Of the top 10 defensive teams, 7 are in the 100 in possessions per game. Of the teams that have the top ten fewest possessions per game, 3 have a top 100 defense.

If anything, fewer possessions means better offense. Of the top ten offenses in the country in terms of efficiency, 6 rank 180th or lower in terms of possessions per game.

And what do you do with Mizzou? Everything they do revolves around their defense, yet they play at the 18th fastest pace in the country. And what about the many teams that play the princeton offense, who care more about offense than anything, and play at an incredibly slow pace. NU for instance, ranks #259 in possessions per game but is just awful at defense and fantastic at offense. By your logic, NU is a defense oriented team.

There isn't much correlation between fewer possessions and better defense. You seem to be attaching labels that reflect your own perception.


Do you have any examples of "defense oriented teams?"
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Short version:
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Man, do you like to switch words and mix things up to support you opinions. I usually like what you write, but just because I don't think the Pomeroy site is the end all for rankings like you do, you want to pick a fight. Heck, his rankings didn't mean much until he changed his methodology this year.

I never said fewer possessions means defensive oriented. What I said was that defensive oriented teams usually mean fewer possessions, which correlate to fewer points scored. You know, there is a difference between the two statements.

Additional Longer version mainly for FBT:
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The number of points scored don't always correlate with how good an offense is. Teams that like to control the clock may play an excellent extended half court game, which can also create fewer possessions and lower the points scored. Likewise good defensive teams can slow down the play, not speed it up. Anytime there are fewer possessions the score is likely to be lower. Sure you can pick out a few teams that break the rule, but overall that has been the norm.

I wasn't discussing offensive efficiency; way to throw something else into the argument. But as long as you brought it up, I agree that offensive efficiency is part of how you evaluate a good offense, but not the only part. Just like points scored, offensive rebounds, assists, FG % and matchups all are part of the equation.

Missouri's defense is great because they always get back and challenge on every play. I like that kind of tenacity and that style can create more possessions per game. But look what happened in the first half tonight against Illinois. Both teams are similar in quickness and played equally good defense. The 27-27 halftime score supports my premise.

I don't know why you brought up the Princeton offense because that style creates fewer possessions because of the offense, we are talking defense here.

As for NU, again, why bring them up? You twisted my argument and now try to support your misunderstanding of my premise that good defenses can slow down games, and thus produce fewer points. But I'll bite anyway. NU does have a great offense, but a lousy defense. If they'd have a better defense, they could be scoring fewer points because their defense would be creating stops and extending the other teams possession.

This is getting long, but one last thought. A great defense to me is one that creates a barrier to the basket while defending the outside shot. Usually, this will slow down a game unless the opposing offense decides to beat them by turning up the tempo and try to beat them down the court. Obviously, that would speed the game up, some teams do that now and maybe that's the future, but when similarly gifted teams play, if one wants to play great defense the points scored will usually be lower.
 

So, in conclusion, a good defensive team keeps opponents from scoring, and in terms of defensive efficiency, good defensive teams keep teams from scoring, so what exactly are you trying to argue.

Can you name one team in your opinion that is a good defensive team but in terms of temp free statistics has a bad defense?

I'm trying hard to follow your line of logical, but I'm note sure what your point is?

I get that the rankings based on tempo-free stats have a lot to do with margin of victory, but good offensive teams and good defensive teams are equally capable of blow-out wins. a 60-40 win and a 80-60 win both have a 20 point margin, right?
 

From the Barn said:
So, in conclusion, a good defensive team keeps opponents from scoring, and in terms of defensive efficiency, good defensive teams keep teams from scoring, so what exactly are you trying to argue.

Can you name one team in your opinion that is a good defensive team but in terms of temp free statistics has a bad defense?

I'm trying hard to follow your line of logical, but I'm note sure what your point is?

I get that the rankings based on tempo-free stats have a lot to do with margin of victory, but good offensive teams and good defensive teams are equally capable of blow-out wins. a 60-40 win and a 80-60 win both have a 20 point margin, right?
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I think you may have just misunderstood, or read too much into, what I was trying to say from the beginning. I simply stated that the kenpom.com site rewards teams that have a greater margine of victory, which undervalue teams like Minnesota that emphasize defense. I get your point that there are teams that play good defense and can score a lot of points and I certainly wasn't trying to suggest otherwise.
 

I like kenpom's stats but the projected wins really bother me. I know it's just a formula but ugh. You can't project wins with stats. We're projected to go 18-12. Somehow Iowa is going to beat us... I know it's possible, but really?
 

WAGopher said:
I think you may have just misunderstood, or read too much into, what I was trying to say from the beginning. I simply stated that the kenpom.com site rewards teams that have a greater margine of victory, which undervalue teams like Minnesota that emphasize defense. I get your point that there are teams that play good defense and can score a lot of points and I certainly wasn't trying to suggest otherwise.
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My whole point is you can be good defensive team and still blow people out without scoring a ot of points, which you don't seem to grasp. The best defensive teams are also most of the best overall teams according to his ratings. The bias in the stats you are claiming does not exist.

The projected wins bug me to, but that is why he also includes a likelihood of the outcome actually occurring. I suspect that there be a lot of movement in his ratings in the next two weeks, and we will see a big change in the predictions too.

He also builds in a home court advantage in his game prediction formulas, but doesn't base it on each game. In his formula Duke and Iowa have the same home court advantage, and we know that doesn't reflect reality.
 

From the Barn said:
My whole point is you can be good defensive team and still blow people out without scoring a ot of points, which you don't seem to grasp. The best defensive teams are also most of the best overall teams according to his ratings. The bias in the stats you are claiming does not exist.
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I grasp and agree with you, but it wasn't clear to me in your earlier posts what your main point was. Regarding kenpom.com I'm not claiming a bias in stats, but his predictor model. Every model is somewhat biased, I just think an over reliance on victory margin is one of his.
 

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