My theory (Long Message)!

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Army Gopher

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I’m a long time lurker on this board but haven’t posted in years. Couldn’t help myself today. With all that has transpired (or not) in this search, I now firmly believe that if a coach is not named before Saturday morning, then one of the following ‘up and comers’ or current ‘big names’ will be our coach:

Chris Peterson, Mike Riley, Bob Stoops, Gene Chizik, Jerry Kill, Randy Edsall, Greg Schiano, Ken Niumatalolo, Chip Kelly, or Frank Beamer.

I admit that there are several names on here that you would think ‘no way are they coming here.’ Same thing I would have said about Tubby. But there are several things that lead me to this conclusion.

1) Length of the search. If our new coach were currently unemployed, we would have had this wrapped up by now. So it won’t be Leach, Bellotti, Fullmer or anyone in that situation.
2) Games this weekend. We also could have wrapped up any coach whose regular season has ended. A bowl game or a buyout would not prevent an announcement. That eliminates the following coaches, among others... Golden, Calhoun, Hoke, Mullen, Fedora, Chryst, Patterson, Meyer, and Mike Stoops. Applies to Trestman too.
3) Maturi’s own hints. JM has publicly stated that he wants an established head coach. He used the oft-repeated phrase “Tubby Smith” hire. He also indicated that “he couldn’t believe” that at least one of the candidates was interested.
4) There is enough unsubstantiated news about JM’s contact and interest in some of the candidates, none of whom I would call “Tubby Smith” like. I believe these contacts were truly a safety plan if our number one guy said no. Again, he could have pulled the trigger already on a number of these guys if they were the target.
5) Contract. It’s my BELIEF that the U is willing to offer lifetime security to get a their guy. Not based on anything other than what is truly now desperation.

In order to make my finalist list, they have to be: 1) a big name who would trump all of the guys mentioned above, or 2) someone who has been the target all along. In either case, their team needs to still be playing. Here are the coaches in action this weekend (next weekend for Army-Navy). I’ve given my own interpretation of whether the name fits that “big name” or “initial target” category.

Jerry Kill (Northern Ill) – Possible initial target. He goes on the list.
Mike Haywood (Miami OH). No.
Ron Zook (Illinois). Nope.
Pat Hill (Fresno State). Nope.
Greg Schiano (Rutgers). Possible initial target.
Bill Stewart, (West Virginia). Nope.
June Jones, (SMU). Doubtful.
George O’Leary, (UCF). No way.
Dave Wannstedt (Pitt). No.
Butch Jones, (Cincy). Nope.
Chris Peterson, (Boise State). Big name.
Chris Ault, (Nevada). No.
Sonny Dykes, (La Tech). Nope.
Chip Kelly (Oregon). Big name.
Oregon State (Mike Riley). Big enough name.
Gene Chizik (Auburn). Big name.
Steve Spurrier, (South Carolina). Big name, but gut says no interest by U.
Bob Stoops (Oklahoma). Big name.
Bo Pelini, Nebraska. No.
Randy Edsall (UConn). Possible initial target.
Skip Holtz (South Florida). No
Lane Kiffin (USC). Ugh.
Rick Neuheisel (UCLA). Ugh.
Bobby Hauck (UNLV). No
Greg McMackin (Hawaii). No
Mike MacIntyre (San Jose). No
Robb Akey (Idaho) No
Steve Sarkisian. (Washington). Nope.
Paul Wulff (Wash State). No
Jimbo Fisher (Fla State). No.
Frank Beamer (Virg Tech). Big name.
Rich Ellerson (Army). A gem but doesn’t fit.
Ken N (Navy). Possible initial target.

So there you have it, as listed above. Barring a complete collapse in negotiations, the coach will be taken from my list of ten.

OK. Tear into it! And let me know if I missed someone who meets the criteria!
 

If you think for even one second that Gene Chizik, Chip Kelly or Frank Beamer were ever candidates even for a moment, you're beyond dillusional and may need help. No offense. Frankly the only 'big name' guys still coaching who I think are even a remote possiblity are Riley, Bob Stoops and Petersen and I think the odds of any of them total about 1%. We haven't hired anyone yet because our AD is a world-class ditherer. Nothing more.
 

Possible your logic is going to be defied by the world of college football...but my gut (and its a big one) says it wont...and I agree that the next football coach for the U will come from your list of ten. I think Edsall has been our guy all along and will be announced on Monday.
 

Howeda - No offense taken

I simply included all the 'big names' who were out there, and still playing this weekend. We'll see what happens.
 

Army Gopher said:
I simply included all the 'big names' who were out there, and still playing this weekend. We'll see what happens.
Click to expand...

I understood that, but since you mentioned 10 I assumed they were part of your list.
 


Good post, but a current coach may also not want to leave before bowl annoucements are made Sunday. Knowing that if their coach left , it could drop the team into a lesser bowl, and any good coach and person would not want to penailze his current school. I say an annoucement is next Monday or Tuesday, no matter who the coach will be.
 

Yep - they were in the ten. I agree that the chances of any of those three are almost zero. Gotta say almost because of the Tubby history.
 

You honestly have Bob effing Stoops in your top 10 possible names?

C'mon, he's at F***ING OKLAHOMA.

Bunk and Griggs do not approve.


*But I do like the general organization and clarity of this post. So even though some of the execution makes me shake my head, I like general planning of this post. So I don't mean to personally offend you, just your take.
 

I don't want to hate on someone who just posted their guts out.

But Frank Beamer? He is the longest tenured coach who is coaching at his alma matter.

He is perfectly fine where he is.
 



Great post

Edsall is a good guess.

My guess is Mike Reilly, even though he has a long term deal. Why? I don't know, which is exactly what everyone else on this board knows.

Bob Stoops is intriguing, although unlikely. but one thing I've learned about sports is anything is possible and we know very little of the true story.

Maybe there is some internal strife over big game Bob losing so many big games. Maybe Bob doesn't like the look and direction of the conference after Nebraska's departure. Maybe in it's desperation, Minnesota is offering an amazing contract. Maybe he's having an affair with the Presidents wife. My point is anything is possible.

I agree that the lack of an announcement makes it MUCH more likely that their "guy" is still in the regular season.
 

I agree with the OP's premise that their #1 choice is a huge name that's either coaching this weekend or waiting for a bowl announcement. All of the other "B" list guys were/are being interviewed as backups. Makes sense to me.



...oh and don't count out guys like Bob Stoops. If Tubby to MN had leaked people who have called you crazy. Why would Tubby leave Kentucky??? Is what they would have said.
 

You forgot the dark horse........

Jim Harbaugh.

Now THAT would be a Tubby hire.

Not sayin', just sayin'. :D
 

Wheaton's right, Beamer is 64 and a VT lifer. I'm proud there are some around still.
Bob Stoops, no chance, he would go to Miami for the talent first. He gets second choice in Texas now, which is really good. He likes his lifestyle, he wins and his assistants do most of the recruiting, (the kind of job Mason wanted.) All he has to do is outcoach Mack Brown, and that is doable.
The only other two that make any sense are Mike Riley(sp?). Great coach but has to play second fiddle to Phil Knight's money and Oregon. Must get old, but I think he is pretty committed there. Edsall has a high probability. Might be tired of lack of UConn commitment, but this is a lot tougher conferrence. Mostly two stars won't do it here in this division.
 



Bob stoops, you have got to be kidding me. He makes ridiculous money there and just built a huge new home there. He has had plenty of opportunities to leave in the past for better jobs and didn't take it. The only way he leaves Oklahoma is for a NFL job someday when he is bored of the college game. I would be somewhat surprised if Mike Riley left since he already left Oregon State once and then came back after the NFL job did not workout.
 

Great post, Army. Thanks for the research and effort.

I wouldn't rule out anyone on your list. It is not possible to imagine what will make someone switch jobs. Family problems, money, problems with a girl friend, or a boy friend, NCAA issues maybe not even caused by the HC, problems with alumni or boosters, conference re-alignment, or a visit from God in the middle of the night. Even a coach leaving his perceived dream job happens.

I think we'll find out in a week or two that you are right on. Maturi has moved on this with complete stealth. It is almost like Steve Jobs at Apple preparing a new mind blowing electronic toy that we don't (yet) know that we will absolutely need. This has been a demonstration of competence we have only occasionally seen from Joel. Remember he got us Tubby and he got us our new football stadium, so there are some skills there, no matter how well he keeps them hidden for long periods of time.

Army, I'm with you. Of course if we end up with the tight ends coach from the St. Louis Cardinals it will all be your fault! Thanks for the great post.
 

If this isn't done by Monday or Tuesday it has to be Hoke and they are just waiting for the buyout to shrink.
 

i like the riley and peterson picks... i think it seriously could be one of them... however i do think you have the wrong stoops listed.... we would get his brother..... also i was suprised you didnt have tommy bowden on the list.... big name, just publicly commented on wanting to get back into coaching......
 

Army:

Great post.....I know what you are doing and I like the brainstorm. What if the coach is currently in the NFL as a big named assistant? I am not talking a Brewster tight ends type coach---but a bonified Assistant with College experience? How about Rob Ryan, Ron Rivera, Perry Fewell, Russ Grimm, Brian Schottenheimer??......With the lock out next year, these guys do not have the bank account of the players and might be open to a college job for a Big 10 school...? Just another thought for ya.........
 

Jim Harbaugh not a Tubby Hire, not sure anyone is

He was won in one D1 spot for what, three years, with a future number one pick playing QB.

Tubby took Tulsa to two sweet 16's. He won 20 games every year at Georgia and went to a sweet 16. He won a national championship at Kentucky and went 263-83 while there. He went from 9-22 to 20 wins with basically the same roster at Minnesota and has won 20 games three times.

I'm not sure there is a football equal to Tubby that we would have any chance of getting (Urban Meyer, etc.). Dumb statement by Maturi
 

I sort of agree, Balds, but we didn't have a chance to get Tubby, either. And yet....
 

My source tells me that Bob Stoops has received a visit from the Ghost of Christmas Future. Still, my money (today and today only) is on Petersen.
 

very true ncog4

That's why nothing will surprise me and won't rule out a guy like Bob Stoops. The opposite can be good too. Remember what Iowa and Auburn fans were saying when Ferentz and Chizek were hired. You never know who will succeed where.
 

Pinky McNamera and Harvey Mckay may pull some magic out of their hat to bring in the big Guy himself.
 

ncgo4 said:
Great post, Army. Thanks for the research and effort.

I wouldn't rule out anyone on your list. It is not possible to imagine what will make someone switch jobs. Family problems, money, problems with a girl friend, or a boy friend, NCAA issues maybe not even caused by the HC, problems with alumni or boosters, conference re-alignment, or a visit from God in the middle of the night. Even a coach leaving his perceived dream job happens.

I think we'll find out in a week or two that you are right on. Maturi has moved on this with complete stealth. It is almost like Steve Jobs at Apple preparing a new mind blowing electronic toy that we don't (yet) know that we will absolutely need. This has been a demonstration of competence we have only occasionally seen from Joel. Remember he got us Tubby and he got us our new football stadium, so there are some skills there, no matter how well he keeps them hidden for long periods of time.

Army, I'm with you. Of course if we end up with the tight ends coach from the St. Louis Cardinals it will all be your fault! Thanks for the great post.
Click to expand...


Thank you, that was truly funny. You have to be related to Joel to give such high praise. comparing Joel Maturi to Steve Jobs is like comparing Adam Weber to Johnny Unitas. Remember, Tubby contacted us first to inquire and he would have signed if Archie Bunker was our AD. Joel was one of many who helped obtain TCF. I know I will have egg on my face when I pick up the Strib and it reads "MATURI INKS STOOPS"
 

Maturi as Steve Jobs?

ncgo4 said:
Great post, Army. Thanks for the research and effort.

I wouldn't rule out anyone on your list. It is not possible to imagine what will make someone switch jobs. Family problems, money, problems with a girl friend, or a boy friend, NCAA issues maybe not even caused by the HC, problems with alumni or boosters, conference re-alignment, or a visit from God in the middle of the night. Even a coach leaving his perceived dream job happens.

I think we'll find out in a week or two that you are right on. Maturi has moved on this with complete stealth. It is almost like Steve Jobs at Apple preparing a new mind blowing electronic toy that we don't (yet) know that we will absolutely need. This has been a demonstration of competence we have only occasionally seen from Joel. Remember he got us Tubby and he got us our new football stadium, so there are some skills there, no matter how well he keeps them hidden for long periods of time.

Army, I'm with you. Of course if we end up with the tight ends coach from the St. Louis Cardinals it will all be your fault! Thanks for the great post.
Click to expand...

I think Odd Job is a better comparison. Good Freakin' Grief !!!!!

oddjob.jpg
 

Great post ~ I like the analytics. If the new coach doesn't come from the list of 10, then all he** breaks loose, and we start to believe the search was a train wreck start to finish. Schiano, Kill and Niumatalolo would hold the most intrigue.
 


It was hinted that Smith came to Minnesota because he perceived (correctly) that there is less pressure to win here than in Lexington where UK is the only program in town. Some coaches now in college-only towns like Norman might prefer to be in a pro market like ours where they are in subdued light.
 

Long time reader, first time poster. Have to think that the Gophers are going for a current coach. My guess - Mullen, Riley, or Petersen. Any of the three I think would be great. As mentioned before, announcement would be after last game of the regular season, Riley; or after bowl announcement, Mullen & Petersen. You can forget about Leach. Maturi took his one gamble with Brewster and failed miserably and cannot, for the sake of the program, take another gamble on Leach and have him do/say something stupid that would embarrass the program. He's too loose of a cannon...good football coach, yes, but a PR trainwreck waiting to happen.
 

Riley, Petersen, Mullen, Edsall no particular order. I'm thinking Edsall but he's not my favorite. I'd like to see Mullen or Petersen.
 

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