MN-Wis line opens at WI (-21.5)

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Ogee Ogilthorpe

Ogee Ogilthorpe

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That's more than I would have expected.

I think the Gophers will score in this one, at least enough to keep it within 21 points.

Lots of pressure for the Badgers in this one. Other than the trophy and the rivalry, not a lot to brag about in winning this one. This game stands between them and a possible 0-4 Big Ten start to the season.

With any luck, the Gophers catch them looking ahead to OSU the following weekend, who also didn't look particularly impressive last weekend.


Interesting yet meaningless stat: Wisconsin is 0-4 against the spread this year (pretty sure there was no line against Austin Peay, at least not in Vegas). I'd be surprised if they covered in this one.
 

Not that it will matter, but I would rather play the Badgers coming off a win than a loss. No chance they'll fall asleep for this one after the loss to Sparty, and really that's the only chance the Gophers have. The Badgers are going to be ornery, and I think we all know that Bielema would love to rub Brew's face in it, if he gets that chance.
 

The Gophers are 3-1 in Vegas and should be 4-1 with a 21.5 point spread. That extra 0.5 makes a big difference.
 

I think this game will make a definitive statement on the direction of the program. Mason's teams were renowned for never getting off the bus when we played in Camp Randall. I remember going to a game there where we were already down by two scores by the time we made it to our seats (2006? I recall the final was like 51-3). In 2008 Brewster's team played Wisky tough in Madison. We were leading in the 3rd quarter but couldn't hold on. Somehow that sounds like a familiar refrain now.

I don't expect us to win, but I'd like to think we can cover a 3 TD spread. You do have to give the team credit for playing hard (if not always smart) vs. NW this past w/e. If they can at least not embarrass themselves this Saturday, Brewster probably at least deserves to finish out the season. But if we get humiliated then its time to pull the pin on the Brewster pooh-grenade.
 

I think it's safe to say that the line is going to be too big for any Gopher game until they surprise someone.

The combination of them sucking, a ball control offense, a defense that is showing signs of improvement, an offense that should score some points against most teams, and I'm thinking you're going to get over bets on our opponents, thus lines that are too generous for our opponents.

Could be a good bet all year, unless we surprise.
 


Schnoodler said:
I think it's safe to say that the line is going to be too big for any Gopher game until they surprise someone.

The combination of them sucking, a ball control offense, a defense that is showing signs of improvement, an offense that should score some points against most teams, and I'm thinking you're going to get over bets on our opponents, thus lines that are too generous for our opponents.

Could be a good bet all year, unless we surprise.
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The problem is, I got greedy on Friday and took the Gophers on the money line (to win outright) at +180. If I would have just played the number, I come out a winner. At least I came out alright taking Michigan State to win and Indiana to cover against Michigan.

I'm having a difficult time justifying NOT betting the farm on this one. Hard to imagine this one more than a 10-point game. I just don't see it.

Another thing I like about this game; Tolzein isn't exactly a Persa or USD's Warren on his feet. He's decent in the pocket but not the mobile QB that has given the Gophers young and inexperienced group fits.
 

Wow, I think that point spread is borderline wacky. I mean Sconnie is obviously better than we are, but more than three touchdowns better? Based on what I've seen so far from them this season, I'd have to question that, and if I were a betting man, I would certainly take Minnesota + 21.5 points.
 

My guess earlier today to a friend who is a Badger was -14.5, which he scoffed at as being too high. He felt like -10 or less was appropriate. A lot of WI folks are back down to earth about the Badgers now that they got taken down a peg.
 

The Badgers lost a tough game on the road to a good team. Not exactly an earth shattering development in the Big 10. 21.5 seems about right. May be 15, may be 25, does not really matter to me.
 



Schnoodler said:
I think it's safe to say that the line is going to be too big for any Gopher game until they surprise someone.

The combination of them sucking, a ball control offense, a defense that is showing signs of improvement, an offense that should score some points against most teams, and I'm thinking you're going to get over bets on our opponents, thus lines that are too generous for our opponents.

Could be a good bet all year, unless we surprise.
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LOL! Why do people keep saying this over and over and over and over and over and over?

THE DEFENSE IS NOT IMPROVING (or showing any signs)
 

If we could not slow down Wisconsin last year then we're sure not going to do it this year. We lost 10 starters and our defense is much worse, they return almost everyone on offense, and the game is in Madison. 45 points from Wisconsin sounds about right. Even if we score 21, they still cover.
 

Art Vandelay said:
LOL! Why do people keep saying this over and over and over and over and over and over?

THE DEFENSE IS NOT IMPROVING (or showing any signs)
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3 weeks ago: allowed 41 v USD

last week: allowed 29 v Northwestern

Improvement.
 




That line is too low if you ask me.

The defense goes up one week, down the next. They went up against NW, time for a drop...
 

It seems high to me but keep in mind I thought the line against South Dakota was too low. Who wants to bet on my advice? Step right up.
 

Art Vandelay said:
Touche. I obviously can't argue with that.
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If you just look at the score, yes its an improvement. But NW did a lot to beat themselves. If you take away the turnovers, NW maybe goes on to score a couple of times. It could have been worse. Granted, we caused some of those turnovers. I think what the oddsmakers are setting the line on is based on two things:

1.Bookies are happy just to collect their 10% vig. The line's this high because they figure there are more cheddarhead fans willing to bet than Gophers. If they can get some dumbshiite dairy farmer in Tomah to give 3 TD's so much the better

2.The other question is at what point is Brewster's team going to implode and give up on him. The fans and the media no longer buy his schtick, but judging by the effort on Saturday vs. NW the players still do (kudos to them). That won't last forever though. There's a 55-0 game waiting to happen, and like I said in an earlier post, in the last 10-15 years we haven't exactly covered ourselves in glory in Camp Randall.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
The problem is, I got greedy on Friday and took the Gophers on the money line (to win outright) at +180. If I would have just played the number, I come out a winner. At least I came out alright taking Michigan State to win and Indiana to cover against Michigan.

I'm having a difficult time justifying NOT betting the farm on this one. Hard to imagine this one more than a 10-point game. I just don't see it.

Another thing I like about this game; Tolzein isn't exactly a Persa or USD's Warren on his feet. He's decent in the pocket but not the mobile QB that has given the Gophers young and inexperienced group fits.
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We'll justifiably bed the dogs in all games, but the spread is going to be too large also. Stick with the points and make some money.

OSU is about the only team I wouldn't play against the gophs. They can shut us down and torch us. No other team can realistically do both, yet we'll get spreads that suggest such outcomes because of perception and over betting.
 

The Chryst factor makes this easy money. The guy hasn't been able to get what could have been one of the most dangerous offenses in the country going.
 

Schnoodler said:
We'll justifiably bed the dogs
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Speak for yourself. In my mind there is no justification for that. I say that despite my feelings for a really nice Labradoodle that lives down the block.

:)
 

Schnoodler said:
OSU is about the only team I wouldn't play against the gophs. They can shut us down and torch us. No other team can realistically do both, yet we'll get spreads that suggest such outcomes because of perception and over betting.
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Iowa is the team I'm most fearful of so far as having the best possibility to deliver an absolutely epic beatdown upon us, and that's primarily because of their defense, which can without question shut us down. Adrian Clayborn should be a Heisman contender in my opinion...well, that is if the Heisman were to go to the best player in college football as intended, not to the best skill player in college football, which is what it's evolved into. At any rate, Clayborn is possibly the most dominant player in college football right now. He's got true game-changing ability, and honestly he looks like freaking Demarcus Ware out there so far as level of dominance and unstoppability goes.

I really feel and fear they could just absolutely demolish us.
 

Seany said:
Iowa is the team I'm most fearful of so far as having the best possibility to deliver an absolutely epic beatdown upon us, and that's primarily because of their defense, which can without question shut us down.
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+1000

As for the line on this game, the line is now Badgers -22 and a total of 56, which means they're thinking 45-24 or somesuch for a final.
 

Given its a rival and they are VERY vulnerable, I believe that while anything is possible and I don't gamble, this is a distantly possible win. Yea OK go on about how bad we are but we might be due to play well on the road.
 

Why does everyone fear the BADgers? They have played one quality team to date and lost. I am not saying the Gophers will win but sconnie is overrated. Their defense and passing game are average and if we can stop the OT who plays RB who knows? I fear the frosh RB more than clay. I wouldn't say brent enema is exactly the best coach in the Big Ten but has survived because he has beaten the lower tier teams and a WEAK non conference schedule. I think +21 is too much. Does anyone really think sconnie is better than USC?
 

tap said:
Why does everyone fear the BADgers? They have played one quality team to date and lost. I am not saying the Gophers will win but sconnie is overrated. Their defense and passing game are average and if we can stop the OT who plays RB who knows? I fear the frosh RB more than clay. I wouldn't say brent enema is exactly the best coach in the Big Ten but has survived because he has beaten the lower tier teams and a WEAK non conference schedule. I think +21 is too much. Does anyone really think sconnie is better than USC?
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If your life depended on the Gophs winning one of the 2 following games, which one is more likely???

1) USC at home
2) Wisconsin on the road
 

Art Vandelay said:
If your life depended on the Gophs winning one of the 2 following games, which one would is more likely???

1) USC at home
2) Wisconsin on the road
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If my life depended upon either of those two outcomes, I'd be taking out a hefty life insurance policy ASAP. :eek:
 

In the last 3 games against Wisconsin, the Gophers have lost by 7,3 and 3. The Gopher defense will be worn out by the end of the third quarter. The Badgers are going to dominate the gophers at the line of scrimmage all game on Saturday. If Minnesota does not come up with some turnovers or does not possess the football for protracted periods of time I think a 21.5 point spread sounds about right. Minnesota keeps it within 10-14 at half and gets pummeled in the 4th quarter. Wisconsin 42 Minnesota 17.
 

We are in for a beating behind the wood shed the likes of which even God has never seen. :cry:
 

Art Vandelay said:
If your life depended on the Gophs winning one of the 2 following games, which one is more likely???

1) USC at home
2) Wisconsin on the road
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People keep forgetting that we are undefeated this year on the road.:)
 

station19 said:
People keep forgetting that we are undefeated this year on the road.:)
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Ohhhh....Is that what it is?

I was under the impression that we can only win against states populated by people as intelligent as BasilMarceaux.com.

So do we have a chance this week? Yes.
 

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