MN opens as 1 pt favorites at MI; 12-seed would look nice

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I'm seeing early lines with us as 1 point favorites.. sounds fair. I have serious doubts we'll make the tournament, but... interesting to think about what seed we'd wind up with... #10-#12 isn't such a bad thing.

Since expanding to 64/5 teams, listed below are the results of the various seeds in rounds 1 and 2. #12 seeds have actually made the Sweet Sixteen 16 times and have a winning record.. whereas 8 and 9 seeds combined are 12-84 (14%) in round 2... difference being #12 plays the #4/#13 winner, while #8/#9 always has played #1.

Seed.......Round One......Round Two
#1...............96-0...............84-12
#2...............92-4...............60-32
#3...............81-15.............48-33
#4...............76-20.............41-35
#5...............65-31.............35-30
#6...............66-30.............35-31
#7...............60-36.............18-42
#8...............44-52...............9-35
#9...............52-44...............3-49
#10.............36-60.............18-18
#11.............30-66.............11-19
#12.............31-65.............16-15
#13.............20-76...............4-16
#14.............15-81...............2-13
#15...............4-92................0-4
#16...............0-96
 

Hard to believe a 3-6 road team is favored on the road against anybody, let alone a team that just beat us by 9 in our own house less than 2 weeks ago.

I'm not sure the Gophers have an answer for Sims and Harris on their senior night....I'd have to bet Michigan if I were a gambling man...oh wait...I am...lol
 

Hard to say how we will come out. I'm hoping we have a chip on our shoulder becasue we played so poorly in the barn when we played them the first time. The team has to know the importance of this game, they need to know that they are in a fight for their lives. I'd say the 2/3 zone should do the trick against Michigan. Colton is a liablility on offense, but he can be one hell of a defender when he doesn't pick up those stupid fouls, and play himself out of the game by arguing with the refs after every call that doesn't go his way. Sampson also is a nice defender with extremely long arms. DJ also knows this could be his last chance to shine! He's going to come out Ballin! He is going to show why he is the best defensive player in the Big Ten tomorrow night! Look for LW to have a nice game as well(20pts). I really think this team is going to come out on a mission tomorrow. I'm looking for a big gopher win! 64-49!

As for the tournament seeding...I could really care less as long as we get in. This team has been delt a bad hand this year, and is definitely due for a few wins over good schools. Maybe our luck will change and we can make a cinderella sweet 16 run this year!
 

Chicken and egg. The reason the 12 seeds have had relative sucess is becuase that's typically where the last teams in end up. The last teams in tend to me teams that got hot and played thier way in the last few weeks of the season, lke the Gophers will have done if they finish this off. In other words. the #12 seed doesn't bring good luck to the Gophers, the Gophers bring good luck to the #12 seed.
 

Tulsa As 12 Seed In 1993 Or 1994

Defeated Okla St and UCLA in NCAA tourney.

Coach was a guy named Smith.
 



Friend Of Tubby said:
Defeated Okla St and UCLA in NCAA tourney.

Coach was a guy named Smith.
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Yessir.. great year, 1994. That tourney, 6-seed Marquette upset Tubby's future team, Kentucky, in the second round. Kentucky's coach at the time, Rick "Porcini's" Pitino will be on ESPNU tonight at 8:30pm CT, visiting Milwaukee and Marquette.
 

Appeared to me that Michigan is favored by two in this mornings paper.
 

howeda7 said:
Chicken and egg. The reason the 12 seeds have had relative sucess is becuase that's typically where the last teams in end up. The last teams in tend to me teams that got hot and played thier way in the last few weeks of the season, lke the Gophers will have done if they finish this off. In other words. the #12 seed doesn't bring good luck to the Gophers, the Gophers bring good luck to the #12 seed.
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True, although the main reason the #12 seed has been able to advance to the Sweet 16 a few times is because of the basics of the bracket. I've always said if you can't be a top 4 seed, then it is better to get the #12 seed.

The 12-seed plays the 5-seed in the first round. Frankly, there is never much difference from the 5-seed to the 9-seed. For example last year in the East Region that the Gophers were in, the 12-seed was Wisconsin. They got 5-seed Florida State in the first round. Is that any worse than playing the 8- or 9-seed in the East Region, which was Okie State and Tennessee? No way. The beauty for any 12-seed is if you get by the first round, you then play the 4-seed (or in some cases the 13-seed). In Wisky's case, it was 4-seed Xavier (very winnable game). The 8/9 winner ALWAYS gets to play the top seed in the region (never the #16 seed) - in this case Pitt (not so winnable.) So, if you're Okie State or TN, you would just as soon get a 12-seed and play FSU and then avoid Pitt.

So, basically being a 12-seed is better than an 8-seed or a 9-seed (or even the 6/7 seed, who has to face the #2 and #3 seeds in the 2nd round). The 12-seed gives you a better chance to get into the second weekend of play, based on the 2nd round matchup usually being easier, and the first round matchup usually not being much more difficult than any of the other teams.

That said, it is rare that a major conference team gets a 12-seed. Usually the final major conference teams that get in are 11-seeds or better. I'd love to see a breakdown of major conference teams who are 12-seeds and how they've done. Arizona made the Sweet 16 last year as a 12-seed (beating the #5 and #13 seeds). Wisky nearly got to the Sweet 16 last year and I know Missouri advanced the Elite 8 in 2002 as a 12-seed.
 



I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole. Two of the most skitzo teams in the country, not just game to game but within a game. Impossible to know which teams will show up.
 

tjgopher said:
That said, it is rare that a major conference team gets a 12-seed. Usually the final major conference teams that get in are 11-seeds or better.
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I'm not sure that's true. I think a there's at least a couple major conf. 12 seeds every year aren't there? I could be wrong.
 

I'll answer my own question. You're more right than I am. Going back the last 5 years or so, it's more likely a mid major fills the #12 seed than a major. But there is usually 1-2 majors that take a 12 seed each year. 2005 had 4 mid majors though.
 

Moses87 said:
Hard to believe a 3-6 road team is favored on the road against anybody, let alone a team that just beat us by 9 in our own house less than 2 weeks ago.

I'm not sure the Gophers have an answer for Sims and Harris on their senior night....I'd have to bet Michigan if I were a gambling man...oh wait...I am...lol
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I know it doesn't seem like it but Harris is a junior. I think Manny's been playing for nine years.

Gibson and Sims are the only Michigan seniors.
 



Blizzard said:
Appeared to me that Michigan is favored by two in this mornings paper.
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What does "this mornings paper" mean? They still make those things? Just checked six places taking bets, and they all are at Minnesota -1 as of this moment. I could see it moving a bit, but I definitely haven't seen a MI by 2 line...

I'm with SelectionSunday on this game, though.. i.e., could go any number of ways.
 

ColNathanJessup said:
I'm not sure that's true. I think a there's at least a couple major conf. 12 seeds every year aren't there? I could be wrong.
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Here are the 12-seeds since 2000:

2000 - Butler. St. Bonaventure, Indiana State, Utah State
2001 - Utah State, Hawaii, Gonzaga, BYU
2002 - Missouri (Elite 8), Creighton, Utah, Tulsa
2003 - Butler, Weber State, BYU, UW-Milwaukee
2004 - Manhatten, Pacific, Murray State, BYU
2005 - George Washington, New Mexico, Old Dominion, UW-Milwaukee
2006 - Texas A&M (2nd round), Utah State, Kent State, Montana
2007 - Old Dominion, Long Beach, Arkansas (lost 1st round), Illinois (lost 1st round)
2008 - Temple, George Mason, Western Kentucky, Villanova (Sweet 16)
2009 - Wisconsin (2nd round), Arizona (Sweet 16), Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky

Ten years - 40 teams (7 from major conferences)

Although, more frequent lately (six in last four years; 1 in previous 6 years).

Out of the seven teams who were 12 seeds from a major conference:

1 Elite 8
2 Sweet 16s
2 Second Round exits
2 First Round exits

That's quite impressive that 5 of 7 teams (AS 12 SEEDS) advanced at least to the second round and three moved into the second weekend, one to the third weekend.
 

What does "this mornings paper" mean? They still make those things? Just checked six places taking bets, and they all are at Minnesota -1 as of this moment. I could see it moving a bit, but I definitely haven't seen a MI by 2 line...
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That would be the St. Paul Pioneer Press that's delivered magically to my doorstep by 0430 every morning. I love my newspaper. Assuming they didn't pull the odds out of their asses and got them from somewhere-

Today's odds

College basketball

Today's games

SYRACUSE 15 St. John's

Villanova 4 CINCINNATI

MICHIGAN 2 Minnesota

UCF 12 1/2 East Carolina

MARSHALL 1 1/2 UTEP

FLORIDA 2 1/2 Vanderbilt

South Florida 3 1/2 Depaul

SOUTHERN MISS. 11 Tulane

NORTH CAROLINA 4 1/2 Miami

CLEMSON 6 1/2 Georgia Tech

Missouri 5 IOWA ST.

Baylor 4 TEXAS TECH

NEBRASKA 5 1/2 Colorado

MARQUETTE 2 Louisville

WYOMING 3 1/2 Air Force

OHIO ST. 11 Illinois

Horizon League, first round

CLEVELAND ST. 8 1/2 Loyola of Chicago

WIS.-GREEN BAY 9 1/2 Youngstown St.

VALPARAISO 2 Detroit

WIS.-MILWAUKEE 11 1/2 Ill.-Chicago

Ohio Valley Conference, first round

MOREHEAD ST. 16 Jacksonville St.

MURRAY ST. 21 Tennessee St.

AUSTIN PEAY 9 Tennessee Tech

E. ILLINOIS Pk E. Kentucky
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ColNathanJessup said:
I know it doesn't seem like it but Harris is a junior. I think Manny's been playing for nine years.

Gibson and Sims are the only Michigan seniors.
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Probably seems that way because Dion Harris played 4 years at Michigan right before Manny Harris joined the squad.
 

We have played our best basketball since the Michigan/NW games. Something has clicked and the unselfish play along with tough half court defense have been the difference. If we ever learn to finish strong we can make a run in the b10 tourney. Michigan is weak and caught us at the right time when we were playing absolutely horrible. Gophers will win by 10+ tonight. Bank it...
 

Sota1 said:
We have played our best basketball since the Michigan/NW games. Something has clicked and the unselfish play along with tough half court defense have been the difference. If we ever learn to finish strong we can make a run in the b10 tourney. Michigan is weak and caught us at the right time when we were playing absolutely horrible. Gophers will win by 10+ tonight. Bank it...
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Pretty bold statement but I hope you are right. A win would be huge. Winning an important game and being able to sit back and enjoy the last minute of the game knowing it is in the bag, would be nice.
 

tjgopher said:
Here are the 12-seeds since 2000:

2000 - Butler. St. Bonaventure, Indiana State, Utah State
2001 - Utah State, Hawaii, Gonzaga, BYU
2002 - Missouri (Elite 8), Creighton, Utah, Tulsa
2003 - Butler, Weber State, BYU, UW-Milwaukee
2004 - Manhatten, Pacific, Murray State, BYU
2005 - George Washington, New Mexico, Old Dominion, UW-Milwaukee
2006 - Texas A&M (2nd round), Utah State, Kent State, Montana
2007 - Old Dominion, Long Beach, Arkansas (lost 1st round), Illinois (lost 1st round)
2008 - Temple, George Mason, Western Kentucky, Villanova (Sweet 16)
2009 - Wisconsin (2nd round), Arizona (Sweet 16), Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky

Ten years - 40 teams (7 from major conferences)

Although, more frequent lately (six in last four years; 1 in previous 6 years).

Out of the seven teams who were 12 seeds from a major conference:

1 Elite 8
2 Sweet 16s
2 Second Round exits
2 First Round exits

That's quite impressive that 5 of 7 teams (AS 12 SEEDS) advanced at least to the second round and three moved into the second weekend, one to the third weekend.
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I remember that Missouri trip to the Elite 8. I actually had that on my brakcet. One of the better calls I've ever made. Too bad the rest of it was garbage.
 

Pretty bold statement but I hope you are right. A win would be huge. Winning an important game and being able to sit back and enjoy the last minute of the game knowing it is in the bag, would be nice.
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And then spending the next two hours rooting against Illinois, although, I have nothing against them personally, would be special indeed.

As far as this games goes I'll be about ready to barf by the tipoff I'm so nervous about it.
 

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