Minutes for next year

Donate To GopherHole
I

illinoisgopher

New member
Joined
Mar 15, 2010
Messages
12
Reaction score
0
Points
1
Assuming the Gophers get Crandall and everyone is healthy here are my ideal minute breakdowns, lumping the 2,3 and 4,5 positions together.

PG: Crandall 25 IW 15
Wing: Coffey 35, Stull 25, mcbrayer 20
Big: Murphy 35, Curry 25, Oturo 20

I realize I might be lower on minutes for IW and Mcbrayer than most but I really want shooters on the court and think Crandall and Stull are slightly better shooters. Hopefully Pitino can teach better shot selection as I saw IW, mcbrayer and mason shoot way to many early contested long twos.

I think Coffey and and Murphy are your studs and with how many days off and tv timeouts you get in college basketball, you ride those guys big minutes in any close game.

Injuries or surprise development excited to see what several guys can do:
-Omersa - I think he can be a great defender and bring rebounding and athletic finishing around the rim for our great passers.
-Gabe - shooting and defense
-Hurt - Can he bulk up and provide shooting and be a valuable stretch 4 as well as good cutter.

Overall super excited about our depth. Also sneakily this could be our best passing team in recent memory.

I think Stull, Coffey, IW and Crandall are all elite passers for their positions and the others are all average to above average.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Minutes will be tough to get for even good players. I would say we keep Murphy and Coffey more like 32 minutes because when you have depth it’s best to keep players fresh especially for postseason. I wouldn’t put a set breakdown though because it’s more about situations and how players are playing. If it’s close games then we obviously play them more. Also I think that Kalscheur and Hurt will get some minutes too
 

Try not to dwell on minutes and points. I would be a rich man if I had a dollar every time I've heard the phrase; If so and so can get 15 a game we'll be..... The only thing that matters is if the ball goes through the hoop, or doesn't on the defensive end. Just because player A doesn't score doesn't mean that somebody else didn't capitalize on his "shots". Same goes for minutes. I think we can put together a very competitive group. Analyzing minutes is a fools folly.
 

balds said:
Try not to dwell on minutes and points. I would be a rich man if I had a dollar every time I've heard the phrase; If so and so can get 15 a game we'll be..... The only thing that matters is if the ball goes through the hoop, or doesn't on the defensive end. Just because player A doesn't score doesn't mean that somebody else didn't capitalize on his "shots". Same goes for minutes. I think we can put together a very competitive group. Analyzing minutes is a fools folly.
Click to expand...

This is a college basketball message board. It's June. Analyzing minutes is what we do. What topics do you deem appropriate to discuss this time of year?

Assuming he's healthy, McBrayer will definitely see more than 20 minutes. There will be a log jam at both guard spots, assuming we get Crandall. Stull at 25 seems a bit high.

Hurt will be in the rotation.
 



We’ll see. To me, if these projections pan out, it would say a lot more about MacBrayer and IW than Stull and Crandall.

Senior guards who have been productive in the system for years shouldn’t be taking a back seat to transfers from non power conference schools. Guys in MacBrayer’s place should be ready to be leaders on and off the court. Macbrayer has too much offensive skill and defensive ability for me to expect him to take a back seat in his senior year.

Similarly, IW has the talent and skill set to be a dominant player if he can put it together within a system and play to get Ws instead of hyping the crowd. Can’t wait to see what he can do with some talented big men this year. Crandall or no, this needs to be IWs team if we have a future (IMO).

Each of these guys will have ups and downs, but I expect the transfers to add depth and spot starts rather than anticipate that they out compete guys who’ve shown they are/can be competitive in the Big 10.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

I think IW plays a lot more minutes at PG than OP is guessing.

My thoughts are this:
IW played a lot last year. It was up and down. If he progresses how I think he will, he'll deserve a lot more than 15 minutes per game. The Gophers are going to be small a lot. I could see plenty of lineups with IW and Crandall on the court together. McBrayer was a huge piece to last years team, to assume Stull and Crandall will play more than him seems foolish. They've never played a Big Ten caliber schedule and I am guessing Stull is being overestimated (never really seen him play) and that Crandall will be more of a 6th man/Akeem Springs type.

Anyway, with having a sudden plethora of guards, (assuming Crandall actually comes here which is no guarantee), I think a lot of 3 guard lineups will happen. IW, Crandall, McBrayer, Murphy and Curry for instance. This adds minutes to the guards. The biggest weakness is our wings and I think McBrayer will end up guarding a lot of 3s because Coffey can't play 40 minutes
 

I think Stull and Crandall are better than IW and McBrayer so I agree with the OP in general on those 4. I don't think any of our players will average 35 min per game, and with Murph I think you have to assume he'll be in foul trouble (or at least being protected from getting in foul trouble) on occasion so I'd guess the average minutes per game ends up as follows:

Coffey - 32
Murph - 29
Curry - 25
Crandall - 23
Stull - 21
Washington - 19
McBrayer - 18
Oturu - 14
Hurt - 9
Kalscheur - 6
Omersa - 4

It may not look like this at the mid-point as I think IW and McBrayer will start at the beginning of the season, but as Stull and Crandall get more comfortable with this team I think they will see the bulk of the minutes. I just don't see a grad transfer with plenty of other options (as both Stull and Crandall had) coming here to play less than 20 min per game. It's not like Washington or McBrayer have lit the world on fire with their play so I don't think it's safe to assume they will play more just because they've been here longer.

Obviously this doesn't account for injuries at all. If Curry gets hurt then Oturu is going to have to play a lot more than what I have him projected at. Same with Crandall and IW.

Also, agree that we could see some three guard lineups, especially in nonconf play.
 

illinoisgopher said:
Assuming the Gophers get Crandall and everyone is healthy here are my ideal minute breakdowns, lumping the 2,3 and 4,5 positions together.

PG: Crandall 25 IW 15
Wing: Coffey 35, Stull 25, mcbrayer 20
Big: Murphy 35, Curry 25, Oturo 20

I realize I might be lower on minutes for IW and Mcbrayer than most but I really want shooters on the court and think Crandall and Stull are slightly better shooters. Hopefully Pitino can teach better shot selection as I saw IW, mcbrayer and mason shoot way to many early contested long twos.

I think Coffey and and Murphy are your studs and with how many days off and tv timeouts you get in college basketball, you ride those guys big minutes in any close game.

Injuries or surprise development excited to see what several guys can do:
-Omersa - I think he can be a great defender and bring rebounding and athletic finishing around the rim for our great passers.
-Gabe - shooting and defense
-Hurt - Can he bulk up and provide shooting and be a valuable stretch 4 as well as good cutter.

Overall super excited about our depth. Also sneakily this could be our best passing team in recent memory.

I think Stull, Coffey, IW and Crandall are all elite passers for their positions and the others are all average to above average.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

If we get Crandall, nobody will play more than 30-32 mpg (not even Amir or Murph).
 



UpAndUnder43 said:
I think IW plays a lot more minutes at PG than OP is guessing.

My thoughts are this:
IW played a lot last year. It was up and down. If he progresses how I think he will, he'll deserve a lot more than 15 minutes per game. The Gophers are going to be small a lot. I could see plenty of lineups with IW and Crandall on the court together. McBrayer was a huge piece to last years team, to assume Stull and Crandall will play more than him seems foolish. They've never played a Big Ten caliber schedule and I am guessing Stull is being overestimated (never really seen him play) and that Crandall will be more of a 6th man/Akeem Springs type.

Anyway, with having a sudden plethora of guards, (assuming Crandall actually comes here which is no guarantee), I think a lot of 3 guard lineups will happen. IW, Crandall, McBrayer, Murphy and Curry for instance. This adds minutes to the guards. The biggest weakness is our wings and I think McBrayer will end up guarding a lot of 3s because Coffey can't play 40 minutes
Click to expand...

Crandall is nothing like Springs. That is Stull

Crandall is a playmaker/pass first point guard that just so happens to be a capable scorer. Right now, he is a much better PG than IW and i'd expect that to stay the same next year. He's a superior defender, superior shooter, bigger and a more willing passer. IW will certainly narrow the gap next year but i'd be surprised if he was better.

As I said in a different thread, if IW does start/get more minutes than Crandall, it won't be because he is a better PG right now. it will because he has more potential/more years in the program or because Pitino won't want to damage his confidence.
 

IF everyone is healthy, and playing reasonably well, my hope would be that Pitino can be flexible enough to rotate the lineup and get the best possible matchups - based on the opponent.

Yeah, you're going to have your starters, and some kind of a rotation for the subs - but the situation changes depending on whether you're playing Opponent A or Opponent B. Against one team, a shorter, quicker lineup might make more sense, while against a different team, a bigger, stronger lineup may be the best way to go.

So, as far as minutes go, I would not be surprised if the minutes fluctuate depending on the opponent - especially for the true FR. There may be nights when Omersa and Gabe K get more minutes, and some games where they don't see the floor - depending on the matchups.

The goal is to win games. You do that by getting the matchups that favor your team.
 

Ha! McBrayer at 18 mpg? Ok artard
 

Angry said:
Ha! McBrayer at 18 mpg? Ok artard
Click to expand...

Ok, someone explain the McBrayer love.

The guy is ok defensively and erratic as hell offensively. He seems out of control alot. He'll hit a shot here and there. McBrayer, to me, is the type of player that puts you in the bottom half of the big 10

I really don't like much about his game. Someone explain it to me.

I would say McBrayer is the type of player you want to upgrade to take the next step.
 



Goldteam said:
Ok, someone explain the McBrayer love.

The guy is ok defensively and erratic as hell offensively. He seems out of control alot. He'll hit a shot here and there. McBrayer, to me, is the type of player that puts you in the bottom half of the big 10

I really don't like much about his game. Someone explain it to me.
Click to expand...

McBrayer was playing hurt all last season. His sophomore year he was very good at shooting (41.6% from 3) and getting to the rim and drawing fouls. He's a talented player when he's healthy.
 

Keyser Söze said:
McBrayer was playing hurt all last season. His sophomore year he was very good at shooting (41.6% from 3) and getting to the rim and drawing fouls. He's a talented player when he's healthy.
Click to expand...

Career 37% shooter! Out of control a lot.

Again, I think he's a dime a dozen and doesn't put us over the top at all.
 

Goldteam said:
Ok, someone explain the McBrayer love.

The guy is ok defensively and erratic as hell offensively. He seems out of control alot. He'll hit a shot here and there. McBrayer, to me, is the type of player that puts you in the bottom half of the big 10

I really don't like much about his game. Someone explain it to me.

I would say McBrayer is the type of player you want to upgrade to take the next step.
Click to expand...

Agree if the next step is contending for final fours...but he most certainly is a starter or at the worst a 6th option on a team that wins a B10 title and makes the tourney. He has a nice jumpshot, he can hit the three, hits free throws...he has decent handles and can play both the 1 or 2 if needed...he has the ability to get to the rim and finish(sometimes emphatically)...he has good size and has good length on defense. Nobody is saying that he is a top SG in the country or anything, but he can consistently score in the double digits efficiently when healthy and is a vital part of this team from his ablity to play and lead. If you go back and watch tape from last year, his jumpshot was clearly hampered with the leg injruy. Shooting is all about having good legs underneath you and it was clear he was not even close to 100%.
 

Frank Grimey Grimes said:
Agree if the next step is contending for final fours...but he most certainly is a starter or at the worst a 6th option on a team that wins a B10 title and makes the tourney. He has a nice jumpshot, he can hit the three, hits free throws...he has decent handles and can play both the 1 or 2 if needed...he has the ability to get to the rim and finish(sometimes emphatically)...he has good size and has good length on defense. Nobody is saying that he is a top SG in the country or anything, but he can consistently score in the double digits efficiently when healthy and is a vital part of this team from his ablity to play and lead. If you go back and watch tape from last year, his jumpshot was clearly hampered with the leg injruy. Shooting is all about having good legs underneath you and it was clear he was not even close to 100%.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

If McBrayer is your 5th wheel of your starting 5 like he was last year then you have one damn good starting 5 (like we did last year before everything went down). If he is one of your top 3 scorers you can probably make the tournament as like an 11 or 12 seed but if he is your 5th best player, you can win a lot of games, make a deep run in the tourney and be very successful.

He can score in a variety of ways, he is not great but good from 3 and can create his own shot both from deep and the midrange and he can finish and has the size and athleticism to defend.
 

die hard gopher said:
Crandall is nothing like Springs. That is Stull

Crandall is a playmaker/pass first point guard that just so happens to be a capable scorer. Right now, he is a much better PG than IW and i'd expect that to stay the same next year. He's a superior defender, superior shooter, bigger and a more willing passer. IW will certainly narrow the gap next year but i'd be surprised if he was better.

As I said in a different thread, if IW does start/get more minutes than Crandall, it won't be because he is a better PG right now. it will because he has more potential/more years in the program or because Pitino won't want to damage his confidence.
Click to expand...
Agree with everything you wrote except willing passer. IW loves that part of the game and if more IW recipients caught his sometimes surprising coming out of nowhere passes he would pass even more.
 

Frank Grimey Grimes said:
Agree if the next step is contending for final fours...but he most certainly is a starter or at the worst a 6th option on a team that wins a B10 title and makes the tourney. He has a nice jumpshot, he can hit the three, hits free throws...he has decent handles and can play both the 1 or 2 if needed...he has the ability to get to the rim and finish(sometimes emphatically)...he has good size and has good length on defense. Nobody is saying that he is a top SG in the country or anything, but he can consistently score in the double digits efficiently when healthy and is a vital part of this team from his ablity to play and lead. If you go back and watch tape from last year, his jumpshot was clearly hampered with the leg injruy. Shooting is all about having good legs underneath you and it was clear he was not even close to 100%.
Click to expand...

My next step is top half of the big 10.

I don't believe McBrayer is a starter for teams in the top half. That's all I'm saying.
 

Goldteam said:
Career 37% shooter! Out of control a lot.

Again, I think he's a dime a dozen and doesn't put us over the top at all.
Click to expand...

He's a career 39% shooter according to ESPN, but i don't think it's fair to include last year when he was playing on one leg and his freshman stats were skewed by his terrible start. I think his sophomore season is the most accurate portrayal of what he really is. I'm not trying to convince you he's a star though. He's not. He's a good player IMO, but nothing special. I'd argue that he's a little better than a dime a dozen, but we can agree to disagree on that.
 

Goldteam said:
My next step is top half of the big 10.

I don't believe McBrayer is a starter for teams in the top half. That's all I'm saying.
Click to expand...

Mcbrayer was third in minutes, 4th in scoring and started 21 of 34 games the year we finished 4th in the Big Ten. It's already been proven that you absolutely can be a top half of the league team with him as your starting SG and that was when he was only a sophomore.
 

die hard gopher said:
Mcbrayer was third in minutes, 4th in scoring and started 21 of 34 games the year we finished 4th in the Big Ten. It's already been proven that you absolutely can be a top half of the league team with him as your starting SG and that was when he was only a sophomore.
Click to expand...

Had he had those same numbers last year we would have finished in the bottom third of the big 10. In other words, he's a wash.

He's a dime a dozen. I'd love to upgrade the spot.
 

I'm not a big IW fan at the moment. Until he shows he can consistently play an organized brand of basketball (aka, pass the damn thing), Id rather not give him many minutes. He did a lot of damage at times last year.

I think Omersa and Oturu have to get some significant minutes and play well in order for this team to be as good as some expect. Murphy and Curry can't single handedly carry the load, and I think last year proved how badly this team needs guys outside of Murphy who can rebound the ball.

Omersa might be the key to it all, IMO. The sky is the limit if they can leverage his explosiveness in a way similar to Murphy. It's easy to see him affecting jump shots in a sneaky way (shooter doesn't respect his height, but leaping ability and length make up for it), gobbling up offensive rebounds and finishing, and getting out into transition and finishing lob passes at the rim. I think he might be ready to do those things now.

It's really fun to play with possible lineups. IW, Coffey, Omersa, Murphy, Oturu could be very well rounded (assuming IW progresses in terms of 3 point shooting and defending). Crandall, Stull, Coffey, Murphy, Curry. Crandall, IW, Coffey, Murphy, Oturu. IW, McBrayer, Coffey, Murphy, Curry. There seems to be a number of combinations with which you can balance defenders, shooters, rebounders, slashers, transition guys, shot blockers, etc.
 

Omersa is a talent will be better off the bench that lineup would not create much spacing. McBrayer will be starting. You need shooters on the court creates spacing and ball movement. Omersa will be fun to watch develop.
 

I think McBrayer is the kind of guy who looks better when he's playing with better talent around him. Like a lot of guys, ask him to do too much, or get him out of his comfort zone, and he looks uncomfortable. He's not a guy who can carry a team.

But, put him in a situation where he isn't expected to be the #1 or #2 option - let him pick his spots and take advantage of favorable matchups, and he can be a very effective piece of the puzzle. He's got some athletic ability, and can slash to the basket or hit an open shot. But, when he tries to do too much, he can get out of control or force up shots.

On a really loaded lineup, I could see him as a very effective 6th-man type; someone who can come in, give you 5-6 really high-energy minutes, and rotate out.
I don't think the Gophers are at that point. McBrayer is a starter on this year's team. The coaches just need to put him in situations that play to his strengths, and don't expect him to do too much.
 


Goldteam said:
Career 37% shooter! Out of control a lot.

Again, I think he's a dime a dozen and doesn't put us over the top at all.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with you. He was weaker than expected as a freshman. He was pretty good as a soph. He was pretty bad last year but he was hobbled by injuries. We'll see how his final year goes. I would guess that he'll be an average Big Ten player as a senior. I think he might be more effective coming off the bench as a 6th man.
 

illinoisgopher said:
So much depth this year it will be fun to see them play
Click to expand...

Well, we have a little less depth than we had a week ago after losing one of our centers. Whether we get Crandall and he is eligible as a grad transfer is far from certain.
 

Angry said:
Ha! McBrayer at 18 mpg? Ok artard
Click to expand...

I guess high schools are out for summer break so you have more time on your hands.

Explain to me why we should expect 25+ minutes per game from a guy who has never been spectacular and hasn't even been healthy enough to go through a real practice in 6+ months. Plus, consider the fact that we brought in one well-regarded grad transfer (Stull) who plays the same position and probably another (Crandall) who would eat into his minutes as well. Those grad transfers wouldn't pick the Gophers over other programs that have been more successful than ours (Stull - Xavier, Virginia, NC State, Butler/ Crandall - Xavier, Gonzaga) to come here and sit on the bench. They will no doubt take some of McBrayer's minutes.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom