Minnesota vs New Mexico State

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Treemagnet

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I see recent odds have Minnesota as about a 40 point favorite. I believe this is too much for the following reasons:

Somewhat inexperienced offensive line.

PJ normally does not run up the score.

NMSU will have played a game against Nevada. Jerry Kill is a good coach and will make adjustments based on the Nevada game performance.

Otherwise the Gopher's should be motivated (just mention "Bowling Green") and I think they will achieve the "balance" they talk about.

My gut tells me something like 35-17 Gophers.
 

If I had to guess, we don't cover. But as I said in the other thread numerous times, I don't think people realize just how bad NMSU is. The line is more about how awful they are than how good we are.

Go re-watch our 2018 matchup if you want to get a feel for that program.
 

Treemagnet said:
I see recent odds have Minnesota as about a 40 point favorite. I believe this is too much for the following reasons:

Somewhat inexperienced offensive line.

PJ normally does not run up the score.

NMSU will have played a game against Nevada. Jerry Kill is a good coach and will make adjustments based on the Nevada game performance.

Otherwise the Gopher's should be motivated (just mention "Bowling Green") and I think they will achieve the "balance" they talk about.

My gut tells me something like 35-17 Gophers.
Click to expand...
They play on short rest. Highly doubt the defense give up 17 points. The extra game is not a good thing for NMSU.
 

Treemagnet said:
I see recent odds have Minnesota as about a 40 point favorite. I believe this is too much for the following reasons:
...
NMSU will have played a game against Nevada. Jerry Kill is a good coach and will make adjustments based on the Nevada game performance.
Click to expand...
Good 'Ol Jer won't be at the game, so that's gotta hurt NMSU a bit. Or are you thinking he's not a man of his word and that he'll show up?

 

Ole Jer has a trip to Wisconson two weeks after the trip to Minnesota. What a rough early part of the season.
 


Aggies probably won't be able to score points on the Gophers, like Colorado wasn't able to last year. A 42-0 win is more likely than 42- 10 win
 






The Gophers:

4 new starters on the OL.
New blocking TE.
two 2 RB's coming off season-ending injuries.
replacing 6 of top 8 players in DL rotation.
replacing best LB.

given all of that, if they come out and dominate another team - any team - in the 1st week of the season, this is going to be a very good team.

But - there is no guarantee that the Gophers are going to come out and dominate their opponents.

I just want the Gophers to win. the point spread is less important to me than just seeing how the team plays and how all the new starters perform.
 

Prediction: We blow 'em out by so much that by the fourth quarter we'll get to know who's our 2nd string QB and he'll get some significant playing time. Hopefully, not just handing the ball off to burn clock time but actually a bit of passing game...
 

Treemagnet said:
I see recent odds have Minnesota as about a 40 point favorite. I believe this is too much for the following reasons:

Somewhat inexperienced offensive line.

PJ normally does not run up the score.

NMSU will have played a game against Nevada. Jerry Kill is a good coach and will make adjustments based on the Nevada game performance.

Otherwise the Gopher's should be motivated (just mention "Bowling Green") and I think they will achieve the "balance" they talk about.

My gut tells me something like 35-17 Gophers.
Click to expand...
He might this game due to the animosity between Jerry and him. More so Jerry towards PJ.
 

Will NM St have their light jersey's in time for the game? That's my big question.
 



How’s the tailgating for these opener night games since they’re often on the Thursday leading into Labor Day? I went to the Ohio state game last year but didn’t get in until right before kickoff because of traffic. Won’t make that mistake again
 

Full Speed Ahead said:
Prediction: We blow 'em out by so much that by the fourth quarter we'll get to know who's our 2nd string QB and he'll get some significant playing time. Hopefully, not just handing the ball off to burn clock time but actually a bit of passing game...
Click to expand...
I hope you are right but I can’t remember the last time a Gopher backup QB got more than a couple hand-off series in a blowout game. Not counting backups playing due to starter injury or co-starters like Nelson/Leidner splitting time.

I’m talking about an established starter being replaced by a clear #2 for meaningful PT in a blow out win.
 

Full Speed Ahead said:
Prediction: We blow 'em out by so much that by the fourth quarter we'll get to know who's our 2nd string QB and he'll get some significant playing time. Hopefully, not just handing the ball off to burn clock time but actually a bit of passing game...
Click to expand...

Would be a nice way of running up the score a bit by throwing with the back up QB(s)...PJ could say there's no better way to improve than live reps.
 
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Schnauzer said:
I hope you are right but I can’t remember the last time a Gopher backup QB got more than a couple hand-off series in a blowout game. Not counting backups playing due to starter injury or co-starters like Nelson/Leidner splitting time.

I’m talking about an established starter being replaced by a clear #2 for meaningful PT in a blow out win.
Click to expand...
Yeah, in the last 10 years most have been just handing the ball off. Here's what I found.

2012, Minnesota was leading New Hampshire 37-7. Max Shortell took over from MarQueis Gray with 12:33 left in the fourth quarter and led Minnesota on an 86-yard scoring drive. Shortell passed for a TD. Won 44-7

2013, Minnesota was leading UNLV 44-23. Mitch Leidner took over from Phillip Nelson with 3:50 left in the fourth quarter and led an 86-yard scoring drive. Leidner rushed for a TD. Won 51-23

2014, Minnesota was leading 35-7 against Eastern Illinois. Chris Streveler took over from Mitch Leidner with 6:57 left in the fourth quarter and led an 81-yard touchdown drive. Streveler handed off to Berkley Edwards who ran in a 42-yard TD.

2014, Minnesota was leading Iowa 48-14. Chris Streveler took over from Mitch Leidner with 10:37 left in the fourth quarter and led a 20 yard field goal drive. Conor Rhoda also entered the game with 4:13 left in the fourth quarter, with the drive ending in a punt

2015, Minnesota was leading Purdue 38-6. Demry Croft took over from Mitch Leidner with 13:40 left in the fourth quarter. One drive ended with a punt, the next ended with a field goal to make it 41-6. He had one more drive end in a punt before the game ended.

2016, Minnesota was leading Indiana State 51-21. Conor Rhoda took over from Mitch Leidner with 11:45 left in the fourth quarter. Led an 83-yard touchdown drive, handing it to Kobe McCrary who took it 50 yards to the house

2016, Minnesota was leading Illinois 33-17. Conor Rhoda took over from Mitch Leidner with 5:08 left in the fourth quarter. First drive ended in a punt. Next drive ended with a McCrary touchdown from 10 yards out after Illinois was stopped at the 10 on fourth down.

2017, Minnesota was leading Oregon State 41-14. Demry Croft took over from Conor Rhoda with 3:46 left in the fourth quarter. Ended up being a 66-yard drive with Croft running in a 64-yard TD.

2018, Minnesota was leading New Mexico State 41-10. Tanner Morgan took over from Zack Annexstad with 5:43 left in the fourth quarter and the Gophers went on a 78-yard touchdown drive. Morgan handed the ball to Bryce Williams who went in for a TD. Morgan went out for one more drive to close out the game

2018, Minnesota was leading Miami OH 26-3. Morgan was sent in to replace Annexstad with 4:02 left in the third quarter. First drive ended with a punt, next drive with an interception and the next with a fumble by Bryce Williams.

2019, Minnesota was leading Maryland 45-10 with 6:48 left in the fourth quarter. Jacob Clark replaced Tanner Morgan and the Gophers went on an 84-yard drive. Clark handed it off to Potts for a TD. Then went back out again to finish the game

2021, Minnesota was leading Colorado 30-0 with about 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter and Zack Annexstad took over from Tanner Morgan to close out the game.

2021, Minnesota was leading Maryland 34-10 with about 6 minutes left in the fourth quarter. Cole Kramer replaced Tanner Morgan with one drive ending in a punt and another to close the game

2021, Minnesota was leading Northwestern 34-14 with 6:36 left in the fourth quarter. Cole Kramer took over from Tanner Morgan and led a 54-yard scoring drive. Kramer handed it to Derik LeCaptain fora. 24-yard TD run.

2021, Minnesota was leading Indiana 28-7 with 12:56 left in the fourth quarter. Cole Kramer replaced Tanner Morgan. First drive was a punt, next was a 46-yard scoring drive, Kramer handed off to Mar’Keise Irving at the 3 for a TD

Of these games, five had a backup QB enter with more than 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter.
 

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