Don't want to be cocky but TCU played in a mediocre Big 12 this year and finished 4-8. I know a lot of losses were actually quite close, particularly to ranked teams (like Baylor, Oklahoma, Ok St), but I think that's still a very winnable game next year. Expectations are higher. They're a notch better than SJSU this year (and could very well be a better team next year as well), but we expected to come away 4-0 in NC this year. We should next year as well (even on the road). SJSU is without Fales next year so I'd say the rest of our NC slate is equivalent to this year. We add OSU to the schedule but drop an improving PSU and a stout MSU, while adding lowly Purdue and Illinois.
Therefore, I expect at least 3 BT wins next year (NW, Ill, PUR), with a step forward being upsetting one of Michigan/Nebraska again (as we did this year) and also winning one of Iowa or Wisconsin (both of which were winnable this year and also each team loses a good chunk of talent). Beating powerhouse OSU would be a gift from the G-man himself.
So, it's not unreasonable to expect us to add a BT win relative to this year, maybe get lucky and hit the 6 win mark. 9-10 wins in the regular season, >.500 in the Big Ten. That's not a major leap relative to this year by any stretch.