TCU should win out, but I think they'll drop in the CFP rankings. What the talking heads haven't figured out is, yes they'll likely finish 11-1, but they can do very little to enhance their resume down the stretch. Beating KU, Texas, and Iowa State does next to nothing for TCU's resume, while teams below them will be enhancing their resumes with more quality wins.
That's where not having a championship game will hurt the Big XII. TCU and Baylor may very well win out, but I'd bet my bottom dollar if OSU wins out & then wins the BT title game they'll jump both, and ASU (if it wins out & wins P12 title game) would pass TCU as well. Horned Frogs would be in a better position if they had one more quality opponent (read: Big XII title game).
And I didn't even mention Alabama, another 1-loss team that will pass TCU if it runs the table. ESPN's talking heads made a pretty big deal about TCU passing Alabama this week, but it's a moot point. If Alabama beats #1 Mississippi State they're gonna' pass TCU right back even if the Toads hang up 80 on hapless KU.