Miami game has HUGE NCAA Tournament implications

Donate To GopherHole
Art Vandelay

Art Vandelay

Banned
Joined
Nov 21, 2008
Messages
4,383
Reaction score
0
Points
36
I don't care what people say or if you think it's still "early" but tomorrow night's game at Miami is a "must win" if the Gophs expect to go dancing this year. They are going to need every single W they can get come Selection Sunday. A loss tomorrow night means they likely enter B10 play with only 9 wins and only one of them carrying any merit - and Butler's stock is dropping. Simple Minnesota high school math says they need to go at least 11-7 in conference play and that still might not be enough - short of winning the BTT. Last week I posted that they Gophs have 8 games against NU, Iowa, Indiana, and PSU and those should be 8 of the 11-12 conference wins needed to secure an NCAA bid. However, in the past 7-10 days, those games (mostly road games) don't look so easy anymore. If they go 6-2 vs. those 4 teams, can they scratch out 5-6 wins against the upper echelon teams? They don't get Illinois at home but don't travel to Madison. They will likely have to knock off someone on the road since it may be a tall order to sweep all of the home games.

Again, despite it only being one game, entering conference play with 10 wins would be a huge difference.

Hodger, care to chime in?
 

Absolutely correct. A loss against Miami is a major blow to the resume (not in terms of a bad loss, but the lack of a true road win against a quality opponent), and it will take a very good BT season to make the tourney. Unlike last year, the team cannot simply win the games it is supposed to and make the dance. Butler should look better after it rips through the Horizon League, but that can't be the only "surprise" win this year. Unfortunately I have a difficult time believing right now this team can win at Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State, and without at least a win against 2 of these teams at home + a home win against Wisconsin, and avoiding slipups in the rest of the conference slate, I don't know that 10-8 is good enough in the B10. Even if it is. 9-9 might not be good enough. The B10 doesn't have a lot of top flite NC wins to this point. There is not much more margin for error in losing winnable games the rest of the season.
 

Wednesday's game against Miami is absolutely pivotal. A road victory against a decent ACC team would go a long way in restoring confidence in the players and the fans while acting as the ignition to the remaining nonconference games.
I'm not even going to expand on what a loss would do. It certainly would not be the end of the world, but it would be tough.
 

Butler still has NC games with Georgetown, Ohio State, Xavier, and @ UAB. Yeah, they'll coast through conference play but they also could be lacking any significant wins - unless Northwestern continues to play well. They'll get in the NCAA Tournament by simply winning their conference tourney, but if they don't win 3 of the 4 aforementioned NC games, they won't be a quality win for the Gophs.
 

They also beat UCLA by less than Long Beach State. Yikes.

I wish against the zone Tubby would forget about the small forward position and have Westbrook, Joseph, and Hoffarber in at the same time. We NEED three guards who at least have the inkling that they will shoot threes when given the opportunity against a zone, and these are the guys. Putting Carter or Johnson in there instead of another guard just bogs down the offense and gives the D one less guy to guard on the perimeter. I'd rather die with these guys shooting threes than Carter, Nolen, or Westbrook trying to dribble through a zone with less than 10 on the shot clock and turning the ball over because nobody wants to shoot a three. We will be seeing the zone a lot this year, and we need a better plan of attack against it
 


Art Vandelay said:
I don't care what people say or if you think it's still "early" but tomorrow night's game at Miami is a "must win" if the Gophs expect to go dancing this year. They are going to need every single W they can get come Selection Sunday. A loss tomorrow night means they likely enter B10 play with only 9 wins and only one of them carrying any merit - and Butler's stock is dropping. Simple Minnesota high school math says they need to go at least 11-7 in conference play and that still might not be enough - short of winning the BTT. Last week I posted that they Gophs have 8 games against NU, Iowa, Indiana, and PSU and those should be 8 of the 11-12 conference wins needed to secure an NCAA bid. However, in the past 7-10 days, those games (mostly road games) don't look so easy anymore. If they go 6-2 vs. those 4 teams, can they scratch out 5-6 wins against the upper echelon teams? They don't get Illinois at home but don't travel to Madison. They will likely have to knock off someone on the road since it may be a tall order to sweep all of the home games.

Again, despite it only being one game, entering conference play with 10 wins would be a huge difference.

Hodger, care to chime in?
Click to expand...

It is WAY too early for a must game. NCAA bids aren't determined in December. That said, Gopphers need a W tonight.
 

Art, I just saw this thread, but I already chimed in elsewhere (Joe Lunardi thread). You have a nice synopsis, though I'm not ready to call it a must-win. It's very important, no doubt.
 

Chalk up a win tonight

Gophers will roll tonight, in my opinion. Just my two cents.

Gophers have already played 3 teams tougher than anybody Miami has faced, and Miami hasn't really played a close game yet either, with the possible exception being their ROUSING victory over UNC-Wilmington.

They learned a LOT on their trip to SoCal, good and bad. Let's see how they respond
 

"True" road win

Selectionsunday, do you know whether there is a material difference between "true" road wins and neutral site games at tournament selection time, as is suggested above? I thought I remembered a selection committee chairman saying they count neutral site wins along with road games.

It would seem almost unfair for schools in good non-conference tournaments if their wins in those tournaments were somehow considered lesser because they came at neutral sites. For example, Wisconsin beat Arizona and Maryland at the Maui tournament but I doubt they even scheduled another quality non-conference road opponent unless they play at Marquette this year. Unless you play a super challengeing non-conference schedule like Michigan State quality non-conference "true" road wins are in short supply.

I somehow have a memory that I might have even asked you this question in a previous year -- if so sorry, I've always kind of wondered.
 




You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom