Media Prediction Thread: Minnesota at wisconsin


Picking Wisconsin is the safe pick to go when you look at our history. I'm thinking however upset this Saturday if we are on all cylinders including the defense.
 


Ryan Burns 24-14 Wisconsin in his podcast
That's a fair pick, I think. Wisconsin will almost certainly score between 17 - 27. So the question is how well MN can move the ball against a really, really good defense. Personally, I've got the Gophers winning a close one...let's say 20-17. Mertz throws two INT's. Mo over 100, Autman-Bell over 100 receiving, Daniel Jackson makes a big play in the 4th quarter.
 

There's no denying that Wisconsin's defense is tremendous. On the other hand, their offense looks to be less impressive than the Badgers normally are.

Gophers offense ranks fourth in the B1G, last I looked. If we can avoid mistakes (turnovers and penalties), get some push up front, grind the clock and keep their sometimes-sputtering offense off the field (which would relieve pressure on our defense), I could see us hanging with them in a low-scoring game.

The problem is, Wisconsin will be focused on stopping Mo and our run game, so it will be a matter of strength vs. strength. But if we can impose our will a little bit, break a few 10-20 yard explosive runs, get their LBs and DBs cheating up... we might be able to hurt them with Morgan to Autman-Bell, Jackson and Geary.

I'd love to see our offensive coaches cook up a game plan like the one we ran against Auburn. Auburn had a highly-touted defense as well, but we pushed them around in a way they weren't accustomed to.

No Tyler Johnson or Rashod Bateman this game, of course.
 


Get that RPO game going with some slants and passes, should open up the run game later on. But WI has only given up 1 rushing TD all year, which was a broken play last week against Iowa where Goodson took it 80 yds.
 

There's no denying that Wisconsin's defense is tremendous. On the other hand, their offense looks to be less impressive than the Badgers normally are.

Gophers offense ranks fourth in the B1G, last I looked. If we can avoid mistakes (turnovers and penalties), get some push up front, grind the clock and keep their sometimes-sputtering offense off the field (which would relieve pressure on our defense), I could see us hanging with them in a low-scoring game.

The problem is, Wisconsin will be focused on stopping Mo and our run game, so it will be a matter of strength vs. strength. But if we can impose our will a little bit, break a few 10-20 yard explosive runs, get their LBs and DBs cheating up... we might be able to hurt them with Morgan to Autman-Bell, Jackson and Geary.

I'd love to see our offensive coaches cook up a game plan like the one we ran against Auburn. Auburn had a highly-touted defense as well, but we pushed them around in a way they weren't accustomed to.

No Tyler Johnson or Rashod Bateman this game, of course.


This is where I get nervous. If they take away the running game, will we have a plan to try to beat WI through the air, or will the Gophers stubbornly insist on trying to establish the run for the first 3 1/2 quarters before they start attacking what's actually available?
 


I think we hang with them until the end and could pull it out. They have some pressure to win and we do not in my opinion. They seem to pooch games when the season sours and based on their last performance, might be not so interested.
 




Hopefully our defense plays its best game of the season. We need to stop Mertz from getting comfortable passing.

This is the key to the game. Getting Mertz to feel the pressure and he’s proven he’ll turn it over. If he has all day, he is accurate.

Need The DL to play well... if they do, we likely win. If not, we likely don’t.
 


Wisconsin will look like they want to go home and watch another game on TV from the opening kickoff.
 



I'm hoping their quarterback keeps thinking our defensive backs are his receivers. He certainly felt that way against Northwestern.
 

I'm hoping their quarterback keeps thinking our defensive backs are his receivers. He certainly felt that way against Northwestern.
Only game he didn’t was the Illinois game, simply because Illinois refused to have D backs drop in coverage that day
 

I do really wonder how engaged Wisconsin will be for this game
 

This is the key to the game. Getting Mertz to feel the pressure and he’s proven he’ll turn it over. If he has all day, he is accurate.

Need The DL to play well... if they do, we likely win. If not, we likely don’t.

Mertz started out almost perfect against Illinois but he has not been impressive since that game. My guess is that defensive coordinators figured out some things about him and have been able to keep him off balance. He has not been sacked a ton but consistent pressure will be important to keep him out of rhythm.

There was some question as to why they didn't go to Coan in their last game and it came out afterwards that he was not available even though he was in pads on the sideline. If Mertz struggles against us and Coan is available it wouldn't shock me to see them go back to him.

Weird matchup, Wisconsin's defense has been very impressive but their offense is a mess and doesn't do anything particularly well. If the D that showed up against Nebraska makes an appearance again this weekend this could be a very tight low scoring game that could go either way.
 

It's 2020. While I certainly wouldn't put any money on it, Gophers could win. I don't like to rule things out, especially not this year. I'm honestly just thankful to have the distraction.
 

Athlon chimes in with a new prediction, a Gopher win:

Final Analysis

Wisconsin is the heavy favorite heading into the weekend, but that means very little this season. Just last weekend, the Gophers went into Lincoln, Nebraska, at double-digit underdogs, down a couple of dozen players, and came away with a win. Minnesota appears rested and battle-hardened at this point in the season. It looks like P.J. Fleck finally fully understands what this version of the Gophers excels at, and he'll put them in a position to have success as a result. Minnesota appears to have both momentum and motivation on its side. After starting 0-2, the Gophers now have a shot to wrap up the regular season with a winning record, and I expect them to do exactly that.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, Wisconsin 20


Go Gophers!!
 









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