March 7 Field of 68 Breakdown: 77 Teams For 68 Spots; 10 At-Large Bids Up For Grabs

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SelectionSunday

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(updated through games played March 6)
Here's a breakdown of how I view the NCAA Tournament field. My plan is to update this daily (or as needed) as we weave our way through Championship Week and leading to Selection Sunday, when I'll post my final Field of 68 projection in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

SATURDAY MOVEMENT
1. Morehead State wins the Ohio Valley Tournament to become the second team to earn an automatic bid.

2. LSU, UConn, and Rutgers earn "stone-cold lock" status.

The current NET rankings are noted in in parentheses. Bold italic indicates clinched NCAA Tournament automatic bid.

Automatic Bid Placeholder/Conference Tournament Highest Remaining Seed (31)
Hartford (America East title game)
Wichita State
Virginia (ACC quarterfinals)
LIBERTY (ASUN title game)
Saint Bonaventure (A-10 title game)
Villanova (Big East quarterfinals)
Southern Utah (Big Sky quarterfinals)
Winthrop (Big South title game)
Michigan
Baylor
UCSB (Big West quarterfinals)
James Madison (CAA quarterfinals)
Western Kentucky (Conference USA quarterfinals)
Cleveland State (Horizon semifinals)
Siena (MAAC quarterfinals)
Toledo (MAC quarterfinals)
North Carolina A&T (MEAC semifinals)
Loyola-Chicago (MVC title game)
San Diego State (Mountain West quarterfinals)
Bryant (NEC title game)
MOREHEAD STATE
Oregon
Colgate (Patriot semifinals)
Alabama
UNC-Greensboro (SoCon semifinals)
Nicholls State (Southland semifinals)
Prairie View A&M (SWAC quarterfinals)
South Dakota State (Summit semifinals)
Georgia State (Sun Belt semifinals)
Gonzaga (WCC semifinals)
Grand Canyon (WAC semifinals)

Stone-Cold Locks (27)
Illinois (4)
Houston (5)
Iowa (6)
Ohio State (9)
Texas Tech (10)
Colorado (12)
USC (14)
Kansas (15)
Arkansas (17)
BYU (18)
Purdue (20)
Tennessee (21)
Florida State (22)
West Virginia (23)
Creighton (24)
Wisconsin (25)
Texas (26)
Florida (28)
LSU (29)
Oklahoma State (30)
UConn (31)
Oklahoma (33)
VCU (35)
Clemson (36)
Rutgers (37)
Georgia Tech (38)
Missouri (45)

(Sunday opponents are noted for teams not yet locked into the field)

1 More Win Locks It Up (3)
Maryland (32) -- Penn State
North Carolina (39)
Virginia Tech (43)

On The Bubble (11) -- 7 of these 11 would make the field
Drake (40) -- @ Loyola-Chicago
Boise State (42)
UCLA (41)
Utah State (47)
Colorado State (50)
Louisville (51)
Ole Miss (52)
Memphis (53) -- @ Houston
Xavier (56)
Saint John's (67)
Michigan State (72) -- Michigan

Longshots (5) -- Win 2 or 3 Games + Get A Lot of Help
Saint Louis (44) -- season complete
Syracuse (49)
SMU (54)
Seton Hall (57)
NC State (66)
 
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It’s crazy how bad Minnesota seems, how they seem dead, how the coach seems fired...but if they win 3 in a row I’d think them locks. 2 in a row they’d have a shot.
 

Field of 68 Breakdown has been updated above through games played March 2.
 

The Breakdown has been updated above through games played Wednesday, March 3.
 

SelectionSunday said:
2. Colorado State Mountain West auto bid.

5. San Diego State moves from Mountain West auto bid to stone-cold lock.
Click to expand...

Just an FYI -

SDSU won the MWC regular season title and secured the No. 1 seed in the MWC Tourney with its win over UNLV last night.
 


tjgopher said:
Just an FYI -

SDSU won the MWC regular season title and secured the No. 1 seed in the MWC Tourney with its win over UNLV last night.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I saw that later on after I made that post, and will correct it when I update later this morning.

Pretty cheesy move by the Mountain West to give San Diego State the #1 seed because of two forfeits (games vs. New Mexico). Bogus!
 


One way or another, the Wednesday weaklings are totally locked in.

 

Bad Gopher said:
One way or another, the Wednesday weaklings are totally locked in.

Click to expand...

And the way all those teams are playing right now we are probably the weakest of the weaklings. Maybe if we get Robins back for the BTT we have a shot at winning a game or possibly 2 but without him we are almost certainly a 1 and done.
 



MNVCGUY said:
And the way all those teams are playing right now we are probably the weakest of the weaklings. Maybe if we get Robins back for the BTT we have a shot at winning a game or possibly 2 but without him we are almost certainly a 1 and done.
Click to expand...

With him I think we are a lock to lose by less than 10. Without him, I think a loss by anywhere form 20-30 points is very possible. This team is completely done. As in zero chance. How sad...
 

Go Gophs said:
With him I think we are a lock to lose by less than 10. Without him, I think a loss by anywhere form 20-30 points is very possible. This team is completely done. As in zero chance. How sad...
Click to expand...

4 wins over teams currently ranked in the top 25 including 3 of those against top 10 teams and 2 of them in the top 5.....and yet as we sit here right now I don't think anyone feels good about our chances even against god awful teams. Collapses happen but the one this year is insane considering where we were not all that long ago......even if it feels like a lifetime ago.
 





The Breakdown has been updated above through results of Friday, March 5. I'll post updated NET rankings Saturday morning.
 


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