Mandel’s Mailbag: College Football Tiers

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MisterGopher

MisterGopher

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The first 2 tiers are pretty reasonable, but the rest definitely have some questionable choices.
From the article:

In college basketball, there are teams that expect to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament. Others are simply happy to make it at all. If you had to put college football teams into similar tiers based on the expanded Playoff, who would fill each category?

TIER 1: Expects to compete for national titles and isn’t going to celebrate anything less.

TIER 2: Expects to make the CFP on a near-yearly basis and considers a deep run to be a success.

TIER 3: Makes the CFP every five-ish years and considers it a success to win a game or two.

TIER 4: Makes the CFP every 10-ish years and is excited to win even once.

TIER 5: Making the field is a once-in-a-lifetime experience to be celebrated, even if it gets blown out in the process. — Brian S., Buford, Ga.

Tier 1 (3) is tiny: Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.

Tier 2 (12) comprises more programs than can pull this off, and some haven’t come close any time recently: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, USC, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Miami.

Tier 3 (10): I’m converting this to “every three to five years,” because five is a long time: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan State, TCU, Utah, Boise State.

Tier 4 (19): Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, SMU, Louisville, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Baylor, BYU, Kansas State, Colorado, Cincinnati, UCF, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Washington State.

Tier 5: Everyone else, including Indiana, which happened to get its once-in-a-lifetime trip in Year 1.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/59...ource=athletic_targeted_email&userId=11702194
 



MisterGopher said:
The first 2 tiers are pretty reasonable, but the rest definitely have some questionable choices.
From the article:

In college basketball, there are teams that expect to advance deep into the NCAA Tournament. Others are simply happy to make it at all. If you had to put college football teams into similar tiers based on the expanded Playoff, who would fill each category?

TIER 1: Expects to compete for national titles and isn’t going to celebrate anything less.

TIER 2: Expects to make the CFP on a near-yearly basis and considers a deep run to be a success.

TIER 3: Makes the CFP every five-ish years and considers it a success to win a game or two.

TIER 4: Makes the CFP every 10-ish years and is excited to win even once.

TIER 5: Making the field is a once-in-a-lifetime experience to be celebrated, even if it gets blown out in the process. — Brian S., Buford, Ga.

Tier 1 (3) is tiny: Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia.

Tier 2 (12) comprises more programs than can pull this off, and some haven’t come close any time recently: LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, Michigan, Oregon, Penn State, USC, Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Miami.

Tier 3 (10): I’m converting this to “every three to five years,” because five is a long time: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Auburn, Tennessee, Washington, Wisconsin, Michigan State, TCU, Utah, Boise State.

Tier 4 (19): Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, SMU, Louisville, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt, Baylor, BYU, Kansas State, Colorado, Cincinnati, UCF, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Washington State.

Tier 5: Everyone else, including Indiana, which happened to get its once-in-a-lifetime trip in Year 1.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/59...ource=athletic_targeted_email&userId=11702194
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Colorado a 4? This whole list is lol
 

upnorthkid said:
Colorado a 4? This whole list is lol
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Yes, they're in the Big 12.

The first year of the 12 team playoff they were a tiebreaker away from playing for an auto bid so seems accurate. I think we can all agree that Minnesota will never ever ever play for an auto bid and its hopes of an at-large bid will depend on who they miss each year in conference opponents.
 


MilosRevenge said:
Yes, they're in the Big 12.

The first year of the 12 team playoff they were a tiebreaker away from playing for an auto bid so seems accurate. I think we can all agree that Minnesota will never ever ever play for an auto bid and its hopes of an at-large bid will depend on who they miss each year in conference opponents.
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It’s a team tier list. We should then put every single G5 team in that category as they could realistically be the G5 rep in any given year

Colorado hasn’t sniffed anything in decades before one year they’re borderline. Is MN post 2019 now in that tier? Iowa state? ASU? The logic just makes no sense
 


upnorthkid said:
It’s a team tier list. We should then put every single G5 team in that category as they could realistically be the G5 rep in any given year

Colorado hasn’t sniffed anything in decades before one year they’re borderline. Is MN post 2019 now in that tier? Iowa state? ASU? The logic just makes no sense
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Listing two thirds of the big12 in tier 3 or 4 but leaving out the best two teams in ASU and ISU is pretty laughable.
 

MilosRevenge said:
Yes, they're in the Big 12.

The first year of the 12 team playoff they were a tiebreaker away from playing for an auto bid so seems accurate. I think we can all agree that Minnesota will never ever ever play for an auto bid and its hopes of an at-large bid will depend on who they miss each year in conference opponents.
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Never ever ever is a long time. Especially when they make huge changes to the sport every other year.
 









Ole Miss has recency bias because of Kiffin but historically they are not even close to Tier 3 and I have a feeling once Lane leaves they'll quickly revert to Tier 5.
 

DarrenTheGreek said:
Ole Miss has recency bias because of Kiffin but historically they are not even close to Tier 3 and I have a feeling once Lane leaves they'll quickly revert to Tier 5.
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You mean their sugar bowl winning season and three cotton bowl wins the 10-15 tears before Kiffin came. They were up and down a bit but we’re still good at times
 

gopherbadgerman said:
You mean their sugar bowl winning season and three cotton bowl wins the 10-15 tears before Kiffin came. They were up and down a bit but we’re still good at times
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From the 80s until recently, it was roughly once a decade (sometimes twice) that they would have a nice record. Before that, you have to go back to the early 60s.
 


If you are wondering, Texas A&M who is supposed to make it "every 3-5 years" hasn't won their conference in 27 years and has only won 10+ games once in that time.

Minnesota and aTm have finished ranked 17th or better nationally the same number of times (3) in those 27 years.

Ole Miss hasn't had a team that would have made the current playoff since 1963. But sure they will go every 3-5 years.

And let's not even start on Nebraska or Michigan State or much of Tier 4.
 

fmlizard said:
If you are wondering, Texas A&M who is supposed to make it "every 3-5 years" hasn't won their conference in 27 years and has only won 10+ games once in that time.

Minnesota and aTm have finished ranked 17th or better nationally the same number of times (3) in those 27 years.

Ole Miss hasn't had a team that would have made the current playoff since 1963. But sure they will go every 3-5 years.

And let's not even start on Nebraska or Michigan State or much of Tier 4.
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Auburn has had four straight losing seasons.
 

Iowa has beaten WI the last 3 times they played and Michigan St the last two times and is superior to both teams and are in Tier 4 while the other two are in Tier 3.
 

minnyrules11 said:
Iowa has beaten WI the last 3 times they played and Michigan St the last two times and is superior to both teams and are in Tier 4 while the other two are in Tier 3.
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Some of this is based on potential. Iowa has had the same coach for decades and is who they are. They had one 12-0 season but it didn't end well. WI is pretty much in that same boat. MSU has made the playoff although under a previous coach.

I think they should all be in the same Tier.
 


Pretty depressing that we can't be considered in the same tier as Wisconsin, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, BYU, North Carolina. I am not including the Boise State/Washington State type teams because their path is so different.

I feel like the team we are most similar to in terms of market, potential, and challenges is Washington and they are 2 tiers ahead of us. Not arguing they haven't been better than us, but I don't believe we should have vastly lower expectations.
 

EG#9 said:
Pretty depressing that we can't be considered in the same tier as Wisconsin, Iowa, Pittsburgh, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, BYU, North Carolina. I am not including the Boise State/Washington State type teams because their path is so different.

I feel like the team we are most similar to in terms of market, potential, and challenges is Washington and they are 2 tiers ahead of us. Not arguing they haven't been better than us, but I don't believe we should have vastly lower expectations.
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If one guys opinion on tiers depresses you I advice you to read less
 

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