Lunardi does okay work, but he is far from some be-all, end-all.
Sure, ESPN touts his 94% accuracy rating, but frankly, anyone who REALLY follows this and UNDERSTANDS the process should be able to hit at that rate. Our own SS is likely better than that. The real test study should come in how accurate he is in his last 4 in/first 4 out over the years. I think he's been wrong there many times. For example, clearly based on seedings last year, Wisconsin was one of the last four in. He never had them that close.
I am wondering why he thinks New Mexico State and Houston are true bid-stealers. There is not a lot of compelling evidence to suggest that UTEP and Utah State should be locks. To me, they HAVE TO BE on the bubble right now and be amongst the last four in/first 4 out. Why does he think those two are stronger than Minnesota? It just doesn't make sense. My hunch is that UTEP and Utah State are VERY much on the bubble and not any stronger than MN (and probably weaker) at this point.