Lunardi just updated his last 4 in & first 4 out

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SelectionSunday

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As of tonight Gophers are one of first 4 out along with Boston College, Clemson and Wichita State. All things considered -- 1-6 in our last 7 -- this is an encouraging development. Despite all the blown opportunities, the Gophers are still right there.

I can assure you that the Gophers' resume is easily stronger than any of the 3 mentioned above. In particular, Wichita State's is a joke. Unbelievable that there's still time for the Gophers to crawl out of this hole, but the reality is the opportunity still sits right in front of them. Win 1 game (Michigan) and go from there. North Carolina, West Virginia and Purdue all are doing their part to make the Gophers look good, now it's time for the Gophers to do their part and make sure those wins mean something in 2+ weeks by winning a few games without Nolen. They don't even have to be quality wins (though all the Gophers' remaining opponents are in the top 100). Just get some wins because the bubble is. ...

weak, weak, weak, weak, weak.
 

This is what I have been saying. The bubble is so weak. Getting to 20 wins locks the gophers in (And to me that is including the BTT).
I also think that 19 wins (including the BTT) the gophers would have an good shot at getting in if things broke the right way.
They finish 2-2 the rest of the way and I see it as no worse than a 30% shot of getting in. They may not look like a tourney team, but they very well may be one.
If they went 1-2 in their next 3, Nolen came back for the BTT and they made it to the semi's or finals...I think they STILL might even have a shot to get in.

It would be a weak bubble if it was a 64 team tourney....and now it is 68.
 

Selection Sunday, any theories on why the bubble has been so weak the past few years? I know this year we have the expansion of the tournament, but I seem to remember some very good Clem teams that missed the dance. The year we won at Illinois in Henson's last game which supposedly locked up our tournament berth stands out to me.
 

EG#9 said:
Selection Sunday, any theories on why the bubble has been so weak the past few years? I know this year we have the expansion of the tournament, but I seem to remember some very good Clem teams that missed the dance. The year we won at Illinois in Henson's last game which supposedly locked up our tournament berth stands out to me.
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It seems to me that many teams use a similar formula - play 12 relatively easy OOC opponents then hope to split their conference games.

That creates a lot of 20-10 type records.
 

EG#9 said:
Selection Sunday, any theories on why the bubble has been so weak the past few years? I know this year we have the expansion of the tournament, but I seem to remember some very good Clem teams that missed the dance. The year we won at Illinois in Henson's last game which supposedly locked up our tournament berth stands out to me.
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Because college basketball is nowhere as good today as it was 10-15 years ago. 'One and Done' and younger players going to the NBA has greatly diminished the the level of college basketball.
 


I think we are definately getting helped out by people on the bubble losing. I also think Lunardi is giving us the benefit of the doubt with our schedule ahead of us, not sure where baylor is in the new bracket(if they are even mentioned) but they are a bubble team as well with OKSU, A&M and Texas still on their schedule, two probable losses but chances for a team that needs a marqee win to get one. We dont really need any big wins, in our next three we have no gimmees, but no probable losses as well, i feel as though they could all go either way and he does as well. We win them were in this year.

By the way, how brutal would it be talking about Iowa/NW on the bubble in a 96 team field...
 

Nonconference schedules will get softer and softer

What is happening now with a really weak bubble for two straight seasons convinces me even more that coaches will soften (not strengthen) their nonconference schedules even more with the expanded field. The major conference coaches are seeing that they can schedule a bunch of wins in November & December, go somewhere in the neighborhood of .500 in their conference (or perhaps even below) and at the very worst with maybe 1-2 decent nonconference wins they're going to be in consideration for a NCAA bid.

I can only imagine how horrible the Gophers' nonconference home schedules are going to look when the tournament expands to 96. If I thought recent nonconference home schedules were a disservice to Gopher fans (I actually thought this year's looked decent compared to prior Tubby seasons but it hasn't turned out that way). ...:eek: in most places, season-ticket holders are going to get screwed even more when the tournament expands again.
 

station19 said:
Because college basketball is nowhere as good today as it was 10-15 years ago. 'One and Done' and younger players going to the NBA has greatly diminished the the level of college basketball.
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That makes absolutely no sense. The overall quality of basketball has nothing to do with whether the 30th - 100th teams are evenly splitting wins, thus reducing the number of wins of the teams between 30 - 40 (bubble teams).

In fact, the more logical idea would be that one and done would lead the top teams to be just a shade weaker giving the mediocre (bubble) teams a better chance of getting wins over them.
 

If the NCAA has an ounce of sense they won't do the expansion to 96. Look at how bad the bubble is now. The Gophers would be about 1 win from lock status in a 96 team field. Yep. Just go 7-11 in conference and 18-12 overall, you're in. Northwestern and PSU would be locks as well. The entire regular season would be largely meaningless.
 



howeda7 said:
If the NCAA has an ounce of sense they won't do the expansion to 96. Look at how bad the bubble is now. The Gophers would be about 1 win from lock status in a 96 team field. Yep. Just go 7-11 in conference and 18-12 overall, you're in. Northwestern and PSU would be locks as well. The entire regular season would be largely meaningless.
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I read a quote from an NCAA guy, I think on SI.com in one of the articles talking about the mock selection process last week, that said that they weren't really seriously considering a 96-team field at all. It won't happen in the near future.
 

rcpratt said:
I read a quote from an NCAA guy, I think on SI.com in one of the articles talking about the mock selection process last week, that said that they weren't really seriously considering a 96-team field at all. It won't happen in the near future.
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Good to hear, they really don't need to be considering it. 68 really wasn't need either, but I can get with that at least.
 

The losses are all moot if Al comes back in time for the BTT or selection sunday. they will evaluate games with Al in the lineup vs without and see the difference in performance
 

gopherphan said:
The losses are all moot if Al comes back in time for the BTT or selection sunday. they will evaluate games with Al in the lineup vs without and see the difference in performance
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I wouldn't say that exactly. It will help tip things in our favor. But it's not as though we can lose 2of the next 3 and they will let us in if Al is back. We still have to win the games. Does it help us if we end up 8-10 and win a couple in the BTT? Yes.
 



Marquette with a big win tonight at UCONN, pretty much gets them in IMO.
 


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