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Say what you want about the NCAA men's basketball committee -- and I have said a lot over the years -- but you have to admire its consistency. At least when it comes to nonconference scheduling, the "Barons of the Bracket" have been straightforward enough for us to document what should already be an intuitive trend.



If you're on the NCAA tournament bubble, you better have played a competitive schedule. If not, well, be prepared to suffer a familiar fate -- exclusion from the tournament. Here's a look at four teams from the past four seasons that have been burned by the bubble primarily because of a weak strength of schedule:



Colorado Buffaloes, 2011 (NonConf SOS No. 323):
The Buffs had four Inside RPI Top 25 wins, including a three-game sweep of NCAA No. 5 seed Kansas State, but were relegated to the NIT despite winning five of seven down the stretch, 20 games overall and passing the dreaded "eye test" with room to spare. The committee was appropriately unimpressed by home victories over Idaho State (InsideRPI No. 302), Alcorn State (No. 337), Texas-Pan American (No. 343), The Citadel (No. 294), Longwood (No. 319), Maryland-Eastern Shore (No. 323) and a marginal road win at Cal State Bakersfield (No. 310). Take away those glorified exhibition games and Colorado's 20-13 record was a clearly unqualified 13-13. The Buffs were also outclassed by Harvard in their best nonconference road game. Score one for the committee (and give Joey Brackets a black mark for missing the obvious back in March).

Virginia Tech Hokies, 2010 (NonConf SOS No. 344)
The third of four straight NCAA tournament snubs of the Hokies was easy to spot. Virginia Tech had the fourth-worst nonconference schedule in the country that season, rendering an otherwise solid record (23-8 overall, 10-6 ACC) far less valuable. It's not that stacking the home schedule with the likes of Brown (InsideRPI No. 257), UNC Greensboro (No. 249), VMI (No. 310), Charleston Southern (No. 285), UMBC (No. 333), Longwood (No. 286) and North Carolina Central (No. 347) is inherently bad; it's playing them all in the same season that kills you. Anybody can get away with one or two games against the bottom of the D-I gene pool, but seven? When a quarter of your season is comprised essentially of no-lose scrimmages, how is the committee supposed to respond?



Penn State Nittany Lions, 2009 (NonConf SOS No. 313)
Coaches often call me in the offseason to talk about nonconference scheduling. My refrain is constant: The worst sin for a program with only periodic shots at the NCAA tournament is to be better than you think and to have played the wrong schedule. The Nittany Lions were Exhibit A of that tenet in their NIT championship season. Clearly "good enough" with wins over NCAA-bound Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State (away), Minnesota and Illinois (home and away), the Lions were done in by games against the likes of William & Mary (Inside RPI No. 245), NJIT (No. 343), Hartford (No. 299), New Hampshire (No. 201), Army (No. 280) and Lafayette (No. 308). It takes a secure coach to avoid what I call an "NIT schedule" with a potential bubble team, but said coaches often get exactly what they wish for. Ed DeChellis may have bought himself two more seasons in State College, but PSU still hasn't registered an NCAA victory since 2001.



Arizona State Sun Devils, 2008 (NonConf SOS No. 294)
This is a season that still stings in Tempe. The Sun Devils were 9-9 in a six-bid deep Pac-10, yet were left home on Selection Sunday despite splitting with Oregon (9-9 in Pac-10, NCAA No. 9 seed) and sweeping archrival Arizona (8-10, No. 10 seed). Losing out to the Wildcats stung the most, but it could be argued the committee had little choice, given the No. 4 nonconference schedule posted by U of A. Remembering that at-large decisions are rarely -- and correctly -- based on head-to-head results, we're talking about a third of the season -- not two games -- in which Arizona was far superior to Arizona State. As I like to say to coaches who call this time of year, "don't let your schedule be the reason someone votes against you." Or, more logically, "if you're good enough to be on the bubble in the first place, you should be good enough to replace a fistful of third-tier opponents and survive."



Next week we'll look at the five most likely candidates to join this dubious list in 2012. Hint: Both are BCS schools, one of which has never won an NCAA tournament game and the other has never even made the NCAA field.
 

Thanks dpodoll.

I figured Penn State & Va Tech would be 2 of the other 3, wasn't sure who the 4th would be.

Next week we'll look at the most likely candidates to join this dubious list in 2012. Hint: Both are BCS schools, one of which has never won an NCAA tournament game and the other has never even made the NCAA field.

Here's looking at you, Nebraska & Northwestern?
 

Today's (June 27) ESPN Insider?

Can anyone cut & paste today's Lunardi's Insider? Thanks.

Certainly Nebraska, Northwestern and Oregon State will be among the 10 worst offenders with regards to consistently putting out weak nonconference schedules. Some others, perhaps? Baylor, Colorado, LSU, Notre Dame & Washington State come to mind. Gophers haven't scheduled very strongly, but I don't think they'll make Lunardi's bottom 10.

http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/blog...pn.go.com/ncb/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=6708588
 

When it comes to evaluating nonconference schedules, it's important to acknowledge one thing right off the bat: Schools can never really be sure how their nonleague opponents will fare in a given season. Potential bubble teams can schedule so-called "up" games in tournaments, home-and-home series, one-way road trips, etc., and said opponents can underachieve for any number of reasons.



Easier to spot are the schools that consistently schedule badly (or at least weakly). When a team's nonconference SOS ranking is in the depths of Division I year after year, it's more than bad luck or underachieving opponents. It's an intentional attempt to pad the record, usually with a sorry collection of home games against "paid" opponents -- the going rate now into six figures in many cases -- that might win once or twice in 100 tries.



The BCS schools pretty much control this unsavory part of the college game, and we hereby present the "Bottom 10" of worst offenders over the most recent four-year scheduling cycle, and the teams whose schedules may harm their tournament chances the most come March 2012.

Nonconference SOS
SCHOOL (4-year Average Rank) 2011 2010 2009 2008
Oregon State 318.75 314 305 315 341
Iowa State 272.75 310 220 310 251
Stanford 265.00 259 173 335 293
Nebraska 256.75 280 260 177 310
Colorado 250.75 323 217 176 187
N.C. State 248.75 190 289 316 200
Northwestern 248.50 265 281 209 239
Rutgers 240.75 219 229 225 290
Auburn 238.75 339 120 197 299
LSU 232.75 235 227 240 229



From this list and the next handful in descending order -- Penn State (226.00, four-year average), Notre Dame (224.00), Wake Forest (218.75), Miami (213.25) and Virginia (211.75) -- come the most likely candidates to join the list of recent teams spurned by the NCAA men's basketball committee in 2012. The coaches and athletic directors at these schools need to realize, if not already, that committee members are wise to the ways of "record padding" like never before.



The following schools, in particular, really need to step up in terms of nonconference scheduling for the coming season:



Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA tournament game, and they won't do so by continually missing the field. Nebraska's name hasn't been called since 1998, yet the door is at least cracked for success with the school's dramatic move to the Big Ten. The bulk of a 19-12 team (including three top-50 wins) returns, but a repeat of last year's nonleague schedule (No. 280, without a single nonconference road game) would be a huge mistake.



What we know: The Huskers host Wake Forest in their first go at the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and have confirmed road games at Creighton and TCU.



What we think: Not good enough to impress the selection committee. It's looking like another NIT season in Lincoln.




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Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats snuck into the projected NCAA field in last month's offseason Bracketology. Can they hold the spot for the first tournament bid in school history? The team may be good enough, but both the schedule (No. 265 nonconference) and "big game" performance (1-11 versus top 50) need to improve. Since we can only control the former right now, how are Northwestern's prospects?



What we know: The Wildcats go on the road to Georgia Tech in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge, and have a return game at Creighton. They could meet Georgia Tech a second time in the Charleston Classic, which also includes LSU, Saint Joseph's, Seton Hall, Tulsa, VCU and Western Kentucky.



What we think: If Northwestern can get to .500 in the Big Ten -- which last happened in 2003-04 -- the nonconference schedule won't be the reason for missing the NCAAs.




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Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish have commendably picked up their nonleague scheduling in the past few seasons, but the graduation of several key players is no reason to turn back. A No. 256 nonconference slate contributed to Notre Dame's last NCAA miss (in 2009), and we hope those in charge were paying attention. With their national brand and drawing power, the Irish should never even be close to the "spurned by schedule" list.



What we know: So far, so good. Notre Dame plays Gonzaga in Spokane, Maryland in Washington (BB&T Classic) and joins the CBE Classic field with Missouri, California and Georgia.



What we think: Well played, guys. Sorry I can't help you in the Big East.




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Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are making steady progress under Tony Bennett and are a legitimate sleeper candidate for the 2011-12 season. In fact, they were team No. 69 ("first team out") in last month's Bracketology. Obviously, a repeat of last year's nonleague schedule (No. 324) won't get it done, and both Bennett and AD Craig Littlepage, a former selection committee chair, are smart enough to know that.



What we know: Virginia hosts what should be a very good Michigan team in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The Cavs also have a chance to draw underrated Drexel and either Marquette or Mississippi at the Paradise Jam.



What we think: The Cavs need the Paradise Jam to break in their favor, as the remainder of their nonleague schedule is unknown at this point. Right now it looks like UVA could replace state rival Virginia Tech as "America's Bubble Team" next season.



P.S.: In case you were wondering -- and I know you are! -- the top 10 BCS schools for nonconference scheduling (2008-2011) are as follows:



Nonconference SOS
SCHOOL (4-year Average Rank) 2011 2010 2009 2008
Tennessee 19.50 3 71 1 3
Georgetown 33.50 2 4 7 121
Arizona 36.75 46 20 77 4
Duke 44.50 47 42 50 39
Michigan State 47.50 17 105 22 46
Connecticut 52.00 38 6 105 59
Syracuse 52.00 126 34 28 20
Michigan 55.75 52 103 53 15
Wisconsin 59.00 111 29 42 54
Pitt (T-10th) 61.50 94 47 15 90
West Virginia 61.50 4 26 60 156
 


SelectionSunday said:
Thanks dpodoll.

I figured Penn State & Va Tech would be 2 of the other 3, wasn't sure who the 4th would be.

Next week we'll look at the most likely candidates to join this dubious list in 2012. Hint: Both are BCS schools, one of which has never won an NCAA tournament game and the other has never even made the NCAA field.

Here's looking at you, Nebraska & Northwestern?
Click to expand...
Nebraska has had a horrible non-conference schedule ever since Doc got here. A fairly common bitch among fans, although the Huskers do charge less for tickets to the OOC games as compared to the conference games.
 

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