Learning curve for Tubby
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I think Tubby has recruited the same way he did at Kentucky. I think it is MN fans who have not accepted that.
I'd be curious to see his "average star rating" of recruits at MN and at KY. I bet KY is higher, but maybe not by a whole lot.
I think the biggest "adjustment" for fans has been, as has been stated by other (notagopherfan - I am kind of stealing this argument, sorry.) is that guys get recruited over and transfer. At MN we are used to guys playing for 4 years and then leaving. At KY, you recruit the best possible talent every year and sometimes guys keep losing playing time to new recruits or to the veterans already there. In MN we see that as a horrendous thing, in KY that is an expected thing.
I'd be curious to see his "average star rating" of recruits at MN and at KY. I bet KY is higher, but maybe not by a whole lot.
I think the biggest "adjustment" for fans has been, as has been stated by other (notagopherfan - I am kind of stealing this argument, sorry.) is that guys get recruited over and transfer. At MN we are used to guys playing for 4 years and then leaving. At KY, you recruit the best possible talent every year and sometimes guys keep losing playing time to new recruits or to the veterans already there. In MN we see that as a horrendous thing, in KY that is an expected thing.
At Kentucky he may have been sifting through players that are Tubby type hard hat players and wound up selecting 3 and 4 star players that exactly fit his system. Here at Minnesota he may end up with 3 and 4 star players but he is able to select from a much smaller pool. In this case he may be settling for players that are talented in certain ways but don't necessarily fit right into his system. I think it's a safe assumption to say that you definitely have to work a lot harder at recruiting at Minnesota than at Kentucky.
Agreed.
BleedGopher
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Recruiting at UK is not harder than recruiting at Minnesota, assuming you are going after the type of recruit that is relative to each program.
At UK, the fans expect you to get all blue-chip, top 25-30 players, McDy's AA's, etc. So you are recruiting against Duke, KU, UNC, etc. for each and every recruit.
At Minnesota, the blue-chip recruits that we realistically have a shot at are local kids, or regional kids at worst (in theory, Michigan, Chicago, Milwaukee, etc., although we haven't found this as successful as I would have hoped over the past 10-12 years). So yes, the big boys will come after Tyus, Royce, The Hump, Rick, etc. but we certainly have a much better shot at the in-state guys than we do a McDy's AA type out of New Mexico or Cali. The non-Minnesota guys that I'd like to see us in the mix more often for are the guys ranked in the 40-75 range, where we are now recruiting against schools at or closer to our level (and certainly against coaches at or lower than Tubby's credentials): Georgia, Tenn, Oregon, ASU, GaTech, Okla., etc.). Therefore, it seems to be that the recruiting battles aren't any easier or any more challenging with a coach of Tubby's caliber based on the level of recruits we'd want and need him to bring in here.
There is a much bigger learning curve for a guy like Kill than there should be for a guy like Tubby going from NIU to the U and UK to the U, respectively. Either way, you gotta work your tail off, you gotta enjoy the process and you gotta out hustle and out scout your peers. This is why the assistants are so critical in recruiting.
Go Gophers!!
At UK, the fans expect you to get all blue-chip, top 25-30 players, McDy's AA's, etc. So you are recruiting against Duke, KU, UNC, etc. for each and every recruit.
At Minnesota, the blue-chip recruits that we realistically have a shot at are local kids, or regional kids at worst (in theory, Michigan, Chicago, Milwaukee, etc., although we haven't found this as successful as I would have hoped over the past 10-12 years). So yes, the big boys will come after Tyus, Royce, The Hump, Rick, etc. but we certainly have a much better shot at the in-state guys than we do a McDy's AA type out of New Mexico or Cali. The non-Minnesota guys that I'd like to see us in the mix more often for are the guys ranked in the 40-75 range, where we are now recruiting against schools at or closer to our level (and certainly against coaches at or lower than Tubby's credentials): Georgia, Tenn, Oregon, ASU, GaTech, Okla., etc.). Therefore, it seems to be that the recruiting battles aren't any easier or any more challenging with a coach of Tubby's caliber based on the level of recruits we'd want and need him to bring in here.
There is a much bigger learning curve for a guy like Kill than there should be for a guy like Tubby going from NIU to the U and UK to the U, respectively. Either way, you gotta work your tail off, you gotta enjoy the process and you gotta out hustle and out scout your peers. This is why the assistants are so critical in recruiting.
Go Gophers!!
GopherinPhilly
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We have access to enough top players within 200 miles of the U that we shouldn't need to look elsewhere...we just haven't done a great job of closing our borders.
Look at the rosters of our neighboring D1 programs and tell me we couldn't have a top 20 program with those kids...a failure to develop relationships at the AAU level and HS level was Monson's biggest problem and it's Tubby's as well.
I would be fine if we never recruiting a kid that didn't live within 150 miles of our state border...we could build consistently good teams and every once in a while great teams with that talent pool...and get MN kids!
Basketball is different than football...the south and west don't have a huge advantage...its an indoor sport...we just need to keep building and developing the youth programs and keep our best at home!
Look at the rosters of our neighboring D1 programs and tell me we couldn't have a top 20 program with those kids...a failure to develop relationships at the AAU level and HS level was Monson's biggest problem and it's Tubby's as well.
I would be fine if we never recruiting a kid that didn't live within 150 miles of our state border...we could build consistently good teams and every once in a while great teams with that talent pool...and get MN kids!
Basketball is different than football...the south and west don't have a huge advantage...its an indoor sport...we just need to keep building and developing the youth programs and keep our best at home!
Bad Gopher
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I'd at least say you have to scout a lot harder at Minnesota than at Kentucky. But at either place, the same is true: it's better to recruit skill sets than to recruit *'s (as in 5-star players, 4-star players). I think Smith has recruited about the number of *'s I expected him to. His classes here have been highly rated. But their skill sets haven't meshed necessarily or formed a cohesive team.
There are great challenges and opportunities recruiting here. The opportunities are that there are enough nice players just around the upper midwest that can form much of the roster of a conference title contender. The challenge is finding, evaluating and developing those players. That takes work.
Much of Tubby's early recruiting success were the result of a. George Felton and b. the residiue from the run of the 90's and his championship in 98. Guys like Prince and Bogans were key cogs. But when Felton left over a dispute about pay (and he was worth every penny) things went down in a hurry. Losing Notre Dame's Tyrone Nash to a prep school after Tubby Smith "discovered him" was probably the low point.
Minnesota isn't going to recruit "nationally" at this point. They're not going to be after the elite prospects. Neither is Bo Ryan and he's done a pretty outstanding job with what he's had to work with. What Tubby needs to do is maximize his national connections and pull some undervalued prospects from the South while owning the state of Minnesota. Then you start reaching into Wisconsin, Illinois etc. But to do all this it starts with the assistants and I don't think Tubby has a guy that's plugged into to the High School and AAU scene in that area as he desperatly needs.
Minnesota isn't going to recruit "nationally" at this point. They're not going to be after the elite prospects. Neither is Bo Ryan and he's done a pretty outstanding job with what he's had to work with. What Tubby needs to do is maximize his national connections and pull some undervalued prospects from the South while owning the state of Minnesota. Then you start reaching into Wisconsin, Illinois etc. But to do all this it starts with the assistants and I don't think Tubby has a guy that's plugged into to the High School and AAU scene in that area as he desperatly needs.
In my opinion the recruitment problem for Tubby is the "type" of player he recruits.
The players that are the 5 star studs that make a school stand out are generally players that want freedom to develop offensive skills. Those players that have a realistic shot at the next level are going to pick a coach and system that emphasizes offense and scoring. They know that is what the NBA is all about.
Think of it this way.
If you were a high school kid with those abilities and were really good enough to go pro someday would you pick a coach with a system that is going to help you develop for the next level knowing that you need to work on scoring and offense and go to a school that is going to allow you to showcase that. OR Pick a coach that can't get a sentence out of his mouth without mentioning defense. Tubby is known a playing a defensive game. That is his reputation and these kids of today know a coaches style and system long before they go to college. Tubby also seems to prefer the more manageable role type player as opposed to a blue chip player that he may have trouble with in regards to ego.
Lets be realistic. Most of the top players go to college to get ready for the NBA and they want a coach that has a style that will help get them there. I think most top players do NOT see Tubby Smith and his system as a path to that future.
Summing up, I don't think its about the school. I thinks its about who the coach is. There are kids that would play anywhere
for Coach K, Coach Self, Coach Izzo, etc. regardless of where they coached.
The players that are the 5 star studs that make a school stand out are generally players that want freedom to develop offensive skills. Those players that have a realistic shot at the next level are going to pick a coach and system that emphasizes offense and scoring. They know that is what the NBA is all about.
Think of it this way.
If you were a high school kid with those abilities and were really good enough to go pro someday would you pick a coach with a system that is going to help you develop for the next level knowing that you need to work on scoring and offense and go to a school that is going to allow you to showcase that. OR Pick a coach that can't get a sentence out of his mouth without mentioning defense. Tubby is known a playing a defensive game. That is his reputation and these kids of today know a coaches style and system long before they go to college. Tubby also seems to prefer the more manageable role type player as opposed to a blue chip player that he may have trouble with in regards to ego.
Lets be realistic. Most of the top players go to college to get ready for the NBA and they want a coach that has a style that will help get them there. I think most top players do NOT see Tubby Smith and his system as a path to that future.
Summing up, I don't think its about the school. I thinks its about who the coach is. There are kids that would play anywhere
for Coach K, Coach Self, Coach Izzo, etc. regardless of where they coached.
Is it harder to recruit at Minnesota than it is at Butler, Washington, VCU or Richmond? 
At some point you have to coach-up the players that you got (if you are a good coach). Anyone can win with the best talent--just let 'em run and those teams pretty much coach themselves.
At some point you have to coach-up the players that you got (if you are a good coach). Anyone can win with the best talent--just let 'em run and those teams pretty much coach themselves.
notagopherfan
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I've looked at the recruiting in your area. There's not much to choose from honestly. Someone earlier said it can't be harder than recruiting at Georgia, that is way way off. Georgia is full of basketball talent. Class of 2001..MN has 3 kids on Rivals rated 3 or higher stars.. Georgia has 19.
Every major school in the country is going in there pulling kids out but there's plenty left over for the Georgia and Georgia Tech's. So recruting at Georgia is pretty easy, especially if you have some elite kids who want to stay near Mama.
I think he's doing it the right way so far. Getting the best kids in the state if they fill a need. Pull some top 150 kids from other places which he's done. Get some Juco Talent that has developed for 2 years at that level which he's done. Some of it hasn't worked out, some people have been obviously recruited over but it should create a lot of competition within the roster.
Every major school in the country is going in there pulling kids out but there's plenty left over for the Georgia and Georgia Tech's. So recruting at Georgia is pretty easy, especially if you have some elite kids who want to stay near Mama.
I think he's doing it the right way so far. Getting the best kids in the state if they fill a need. Pull some top 150 kids from other places which he's done. Get some Juco Talent that has developed for 2 years at that level which he's done. Some of it hasn't worked out, some people have been obviously recruited over but it should create a lot of competition within the roster.
notagopherfan
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Butler is located in Indianapolis and it's about twice the population of Minneapolis hence more players. Plus there are major citys in all directions within a few hours. 3/4 of VCU's roster are kids from Florida, all 3 star kids but kids Anthony Grant scouted while he was an assistant at Florida. That won't last long but Richmond is also close to DC, Baltimore, Raleigh. Minneapolis isn't really located around states or cities that are hot beds for basketball talent, so it's going to be tough.
VCU may be closer to more big cities but there are 50 other schools in the area, several of them BCS schools like UVa, VT, Maryland, etc. Not to mention most of its own conference (George Mason, James Madison, etc.) is in the same state.
Minnesota is all alone in a state of 5 million people. That is a huge advantage. Even Butler has 3 other BCS schools in the state of Indiana to get in line behind, not to mention Indiana State, Evansville, Ball State, IUPUI, etc. What does Minnesota have to worry about? SDSU picking a Wolters out of the rough now and then? If we could simply keep the majority of Minnesota kids in-state we would have a very solid program. Not many schools have that luxury.
maxwellsmart
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howeda is right. The guy who compares the populations of mpls and indy shows off an immense capacity for lack of practical understanding.
goldengophers
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FYI the Indianapolis metro area is about 1/2 the size of the Twin Cities metro area.
notagopherfan
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class of 2011.. searched rivals prospects within 250 miles. 4 in the top 150. 1 in your state. Minn offered 3 of the 4. You got the in state kid. The other 3 kids are from Iowa and Wisconsin. The kid from Wisconsin is going to Virginia. 1 kid from Iowa is going to Iowa, the other kid from Iowa is going to Wisconsin. So you're doing about what anyone should expect.
The best player in your state is going to Minnesota, You also have the Mr. Tennessee Basketball going to Minnesota. What more can you want? I'd say based on the commits as of today you can't be worse than 4th for next years class in your conference. Which if that keeps happening you'll be in the ncaa tournament every year. You may not win the conference championship or tournament but you'll be dancing in the NCAA, make some noise there and it will help recruiting even more.
The best player in your state is going to Minnesota, You also have the Mr. Tennessee Basketball going to Minnesota. What more can you want? I'd say based on the commits as of today you can't be worse than 4th for next years class in your conference. Which if that keeps happening you'll be in the ncaa tournament every year. You may not win the conference championship or tournament but you'll be dancing in the NCAA, make some noise there and it will help recruiting even more.
notagopherfan
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My bad but you still only have 1 high major kid in your whole state and he's going to Minnesota. .
The-Real-Truth
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The-Real-Truth
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You and The Truth, please explain Jodi Meeks. Was he recruited by lazy Tubby. Petterson was coming to UK also. How about Jasper. Stop kicking the guy when he is down. He just had a bad luck recently. Above all the people, you two should know how exciting Tubby's teams were. Stop the hate and move on.
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notagopherfan
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The last class Tubby recruited at UK was pretty good. It included Jodie Meeks, Derrick Jasper and Perry Stevenson. Rated 33, 34 and 75 I think. He did screw up the 2002, 2003 and 2005 classes which is what got him in hot water even though he had the #1 overall class in 2004. Those 3 classes had no real high major talent in them other than Kelenna Azubuike. It was like 12 players and maybe 3 good players in 3 classes.
The 2007 would have been his last class but he left before the spring signing period but it would have included Patterson, Lucas, AJ Stewart. 2 Mcdonalds All Americans and a solid top 150 guy. He had verbals for the 2008 class from Draymond Green, Kenny Frease, Darius Miller(currently on the team)
I think reasonable fans would say overall his recruiting at UK was average to good, the crazy ones would say it was awful. I think the best way to describe it was inconsistent. I think he's doing better at Minnesota considering you don't have a national umbrella and not many high major players in the state or region. Lastly, he's a really good coach who won't get you in trouble and a great person. Been to his father/son camp and it was an awesome experience, he really knows the game.
The 2007 would have been his last class but he left before the spring signing period but it would have included Patterson, Lucas, AJ Stewart. 2 Mcdonalds All Americans and a solid top 150 guy. He had verbals for the 2008 class from Draymond Green, Kenny Frease, Darius Miller(currently on the team)
I think reasonable fans would say overall his recruiting at UK was average to good, the crazy ones would say it was awful. I think the best way to describe it was inconsistent. I think he's doing better at Minnesota considering you don't have a national umbrella and not many high major players in the state or region. Lastly, he's a really good coach who won't get you in trouble and a great person. Been to his father/son camp and it was an awesome experience, he really knows the game.
I pretty much agree with Bleed. I'd like to see Tubby and his staff do a much better job of landing guys who are between 40-75 in the national rankings. I don't think that is an adjustment for Tubby at all. If you look at rivals 150 for 2011, I think some of you might be surprised at schools who have landed "bigger fish" than the Gophers.
Two things scare me about Tubby:
We're late: We're ALWAYS getting in late on kids, especially out of state kids. I think this is largely due to needing to fill scholarships for 2011 (or last year 2010) when most of our conference has moved on to 2012 (2011). An extreme example is Purdue who's got kids lined up for 2012 AND 2013. Well more than half of our conference currently has a commit for 2012.
"Character" concerns: It's been reported that Tubby is done with guys who "might" be problems and is only looking for "good" kids. That's fine if you can find enough really talented guys with no red flags, but it is ridiculous to exclude a bunch of kids due to past problems and then settle for kids who can't be impact guys at this level. I read about this type of thing and it sounds like Tubby's simply tired. He doesn't have the energy to deal with kids who might have issues anymore OR he thinks he's above it.
In short, I question whether the Gopher staff is working as hard/smart as other schools on the AAU trail. We certainly should not have to be going to California for middling recruits, we went down that road with Monson.
Two things scare me about Tubby:
We're late: We're ALWAYS getting in late on kids, especially out of state kids. I think this is largely due to needing to fill scholarships for 2011 (or last year 2010) when most of our conference has moved on to 2012 (2011). An extreme example is Purdue who's got kids lined up for 2012 AND 2013. Well more than half of our conference currently has a commit for 2012.
"Character" concerns: It's been reported that Tubby is done with guys who "might" be problems and is only looking for "good" kids. That's fine if you can find enough really talented guys with no red flags, but it is ridiculous to exclude a bunch of kids due to past problems and then settle for kids who can't be impact guys at this level. I read about this type of thing and it sounds like Tubby's simply tired. He doesn't have the energy to deal with kids who might have issues anymore OR he thinks he's above it.
In short, I question whether the Gopher staff is working as hard/smart as other schools on the AAU trail. We certainly should not have to be going to California for middling recruits, we went down that road with Monson.
I thought I'd do a bit more research on this topic, using the Rivals 150.
Schools with top 25 recruits that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
Oklahoma State, Baylor, Georgia, Arkansas, St Johns, Mississippi State, Oregon
Schools with recruits ranked 25-50 that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
Charleston, Arkansas (again), Alabama, Washington, Rutgers, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, LSU, St Johns (again 3 guys ranked 25-50), Baylor (again), UCF, Florida State
Schools with recruits ranked 50-100 that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
St Johns (that's 5 of the top 51!), Vanderbilt, Mississippi State (again), Oklahoma State (again), DePaul, Gonzaga, Xavier, Marquette, Stanford, Auburn, BYU, Harvard, Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn, Geogria Tech, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech, Rutgers
There are plenty of problems with the list (ex Andre Hollins is 126) and it is just one source. That said, there are a TON of recruits out there that are not going to the Duke/UNC/Kansas level schools or even the second tier Georgetown/Arizona/Syracuse. Tubby doesn't have to beat out the same schools he was expected to at Kentucky to succeed, I don't think there's much of an adjustment at all.
Schools with top 25 recruits that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
Oklahoma State, Baylor, Georgia, Arkansas, St Johns, Mississippi State, Oregon
Schools with recruits ranked 25-50 that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
Charleston, Arkansas (again), Alabama, Washington, Rutgers, Arizona State, Virginia Tech, LSU, St Johns (again 3 guys ranked 25-50), Baylor (again), UCF, Florida State
Schools with recruits ranked 50-100 that we should absolutely be able to compete with:
St Johns (that's 5 of the top 51!), Vanderbilt, Mississippi State (again), Oklahoma State (again), DePaul, Gonzaga, Xavier, Marquette, Stanford, Auburn, BYU, Harvard, Alabama, South Carolina, Auburn, Geogria Tech, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech, Rutgers
There are plenty of problems with the list (ex Andre Hollins is 126) and it is just one source. That said, there are a TON of recruits out there that are not going to the Duke/UNC/Kansas level schools or even the second tier Georgetown/Arizona/Syracuse. Tubby doesn't have to beat out the same schools he was expected to at Kentucky to succeed, I don't think there's much of an adjustment at all.
notagopherfan
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I'd say dig a little deeper than just the name of the school. While you might think you should be able to compete with say Arkansas, Alabama or Baylor. Take into account Ark, Ala recruits are mostly in state or in the region. Baylor getting 2 recruits from Westchester Country Day, bet there's someone on the staff at Baylor who used to be on the staff there because there's plenty of talent in Texas they could have targeted. Here's how OK State got Nash..
The recruitment of LeBryan Nash turned into quite a battle. The winner, Oklahoma State, got the early jump on Kansas and Baylor because the five-star wing's brother Byron Eaton played for the Pokes and because of assistant Butch Pierre's close relationship with Nash's summer coach, Tony Johnson.
I think it is an absolute flawed premise that Tubby has recruited poorly at Minnesota. Recruiting has not been an issue, at all. He's brought in a level of player that should have this team finishing in the upper division of the Big Ten and possibly contending for a title.
The issue is NOT recruiting. The issue absolutely IS player retention. If he would have been able to keep all of his recruits on campus, I think this team is a Sweet 16/Elite 8 kind of club. There would have been weapons at every position, including some solid weapons coming off of the bench. But, for various reasons, Tubby hasn't kept enough of these guys on campus. Some of it certainly is out of his control. Some of it is within his control.
In my opinion, Tubby has recruited enough talent to the U to be a legit Big Ten title contender. Problem is, more than half of that talent is no longer on campus. Somehow, some way, he has to figure out a solution to that problem. Unfortunately, it appears this has been a consistent problem throughout his career. At a place like Kentucky, you can overcome player retention problems. At Minnesota, it becomes much harder.
The issue is NOT recruiting. The issue absolutely IS player retention. If he would have been able to keep all of his recruits on campus, I think this team is a Sweet 16/Elite 8 kind of club. There would have been weapons at every position, including some solid weapons coming off of the bench. But, for various reasons, Tubby hasn't kept enough of these guys on campus. Some of it certainly is out of his control. Some of it is within his control.
In my opinion, Tubby has recruited enough talent to the U to be a legit Big Ten title contender. Problem is, more than half of that talent is no longer on campus. Somehow, some way, he has to figure out a solution to that problem. Unfortunately, it appears this has been a consistent problem throughout his career. At a place like Kentucky, you can overcome player retention problems. At Minnesota, it becomes much harder.
I think there are two types of defection we have seen at the U. Royce is the case that doesn’t happen regularly. Devoe, Iverson, and Cobbs may be the case Tubby is likely prone to -- I am not sure about Carter at this point.
Though they may be serviceable or potential to be so, losing Iverson/Cobbs type of players on a regular basis should not be alarming because they are rather replaceable without getting hurt too much by their defection. In other words, their defection would not be of serious consequence under normal circumstances, and it is part of the package with Tubby we had better get used to (because of his system).
Devoe is a different story as he had been a very valuable back-up handling two positions rather well with starter minutes. If anything similar to the case recurs, it will be an issue.
I think it is safe to conclude that Royce may be an isolated case due to the compounding non-basketball factors.
We had many problems including the transfers all converging to the implosion at the end of the season. If the problems occurred separately without magnifying each other all at once, we would not even be having this type of discussion.
Of course, we can be in a similar situation in future that injuries and transfers compound each other depleting one position. But, its likelihood is not very high. In other words, what happened this season may not be a norm but an exception.
Though they may be serviceable or potential to be so, losing Iverson/Cobbs type of players on a regular basis should not be alarming because they are rather replaceable without getting hurt too much by their defection. In other words, their defection would not be of serious consequence under normal circumstances, and it is part of the package with Tubby we had better get used to (because of his system).
Devoe is a different story as he had been a very valuable back-up handling two positions rather well with starter minutes. If anything similar to the case recurs, it will be an issue.
I think it is safe to conclude that Royce may be an isolated case due to the compounding non-basketball factors.
We had many problems including the transfers all converging to the implosion at the end of the season. If the problems occurred separately without magnifying each other all at once, we would not even be having this type of discussion.
Of course, we can be in a similar situation in future that injuries and transfers compound each other depleting one position. But, its likelihood is not very high. In other words, what happened this season may not be a norm but an exception.