Kill's recruiting history at NIU

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ruppertflywheel

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2008: 13 committments. Scout: 13...2** Rivals: 13...2** Conference rank: #13
2009: 26 committments. Scout: 26...2** Rivals: 3....3*** 23...2** Conference rank: #7
2010: 24 committments. Scout: 24...2** Rivals: 8....3*** 16...2** Conference rank: #4

2011: 22 committments. Scout 4... 3*** 19...2** Rivals: 7...3*** 15...2** Conf. rank: #2
(* This class under new coach Dave Doren, former ass't coach at Wisconsin)

Scout National Ranking:
2008: #118 ( transition year for Coach Kill)
2009: #109
2010: #103

2011: #94 ( Coach Doren)

Summary: This recap to me indicates Kill must be one hellava coach. In regards to Rivals his recruiting improved each year from 2008. I'm optimistic that this will also be the case at Minnesota. By the way, Doren was one of Wisconsin's top recruiters, so Im not surprised to see him bring in the second best MAC class in 2011.
 

It trends upward. Sure it's a small sample, but up is always better than down.
 

Good post, pretty interesting. His recruiting improved each year in the MAC conference rankings which is a good sign. I also expect that same trend to continue here. Hopefully by year 3 or 4 his recruiting in the Big Ten won't be ranked around the 9-12 range like I kind of expect it to the first few years. Having said that, I think Kill can win here even with recruiting classes that aren't highly rated.
 

Interesting Summary

ruppertflywheel said:
2008: 13 committments. Scout: 13...2** Rivals: 13...2** Conference rank: #13
2009: 26 committments. Scout: 26...2** Rivals: 3....3*** 23...2** Conference rank: #7
2010: 24 committments. Scout: 24...2** Rivals: 8....3*** 16...2** Conference rank: #4

2011: 22 committments. Scout 4... 3*** 19...2** Rivals: 7...3*** 15...2** Conf. rank: #2
(* This class under new coach Dave Doren, former ass't coach at Wisconsin)

Scout National Ranking:
2008: #118 ( transition year for Coach Kill)
2009: #109
2010: #103

2011: #94 ( Coach Doren)

Summary: This recap to me indicates Kill must be one hellava coach. In regards to Rivals his recruiting improved each year from 2008. I'm optimistic that this will also be the case at Minnesota. By the way, Doren was one of Wisconsin's top recruiters, so Im not surprised to see him bring in the second best MAC class in 2011.
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Thanks - I always enjoy it when we have useful information instead of just a lot of opinions. The one comment I would make about rankings is that they need to be viewed like stock recommendations. They are just that, recommendations or opinions. The art is taking these ratings and then determine which potential recruits are over rated and which are underrated. It is just like the stock market where you make the real money in buying the undervalued and often out of favor stocks vs. stocks that may be very good but are fully valued. My theory is this is exactly what Kill is doing. He finds recruits that whose intrinsic talent and potential are not fully recognized or appreciated. People will often say that it is because he "coaches them up" but they neglect to realize it starts with being able to recognize undervalued recruits.

Your numbers don’t necessarily prove this but they sure give strong evidence that this may be the case.
 

It also proves something else.

The more you win the easier it is to recruit but also the more you win the better recruits you can get. Brewster had a highly ranked recruiting class and some top level recruits in his days with the Gophers but as the team looked more and more like a team that would struggle it became harder to recruit. Better recruiting leads to more wins. That being said the more you win the better you are able to recruit. For the Gophers Kill has to win plain and simple. The more he wins the better the recruiting will be and the program will be taken more seriously around the country.

I think Coach Kill has some pressure on him to win some in year one. The fans look at this roster and all the kids coming back as starters and the talent that has stuck around and feel this team should win some games. Maybe they are looking at it the wrong way and they probably are but I think Kill has to get this team to win 5-7 games. I think most people think 6 wins is more than possible this year with 3 poor non-conference games on the schedule and some of the Big Ten teams being down this year. If Kill has a good season with a low level bowl most people will be very happy but if we are not in a bowl game the idea of here we go again is going to pop up.
 


ruppertflywheel said:
2008: 13 committments. Scout: 13...2** Rivals: 13...2** Conference rank: #13
2009: 26 committments. Scout: 26...2** Rivals: 3....3*** 23...2** Conference rank: #7
2010: 24 committments. Scout: 24...2** Rivals: 8....3*** 16...2** Conference rank: #4

2011: 22 committments. Scout 4... 3*** 19...2** Rivals: 7...3*** 15...2** Conf. rank: #2
(* This class under new coach Dave Doren, former ass't coach at Wisconsin)

Scout National Ranking:
2008: #118 ( transition year for Coach Kill)
2009: #109
2010: #103

2011: #94 ( Coach Doren)

Summary: This recap to me indicates Kill must be one hellava coach. In regards to Rivals his recruiting improved each year from 2008. I'm optimistic that this will also be the case at Minnesota. By the way, Doren was one of Wisconsin's top recruiters, so Im not surprised to see him bring in the second best MAC class in 2011.
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Good work, I was too lazy to do it.
I think I agree with you about this indicating he is a good coach, but not just from a teaching perspective. I may prove to be wrong, but I think these guys really do work hard at evaluating what a player could be, not just what they are. Consequently, they get kids with more potential than their position evaluation would indicate. You can't coach much higher than your talent in the long run, so they have found talent, but it is not developed talent or it would have been rated more highly.
I think the part that makes Kill's classes hard to analyze is that a lot of the kids they recruit wind up playing a different position that they believe the player will fit in their system. A kid that may not have looked like a great rush DE, may wind up being a pretty quick DT. I know all teams do this, but I think this staff does it more than most, that is how they find kids with more talent than they are rated. Additionally, that is why Coach Kill talks about how important Eric K's training program is, if you have to build players, you better be good at it.
 

It seems that Coach Kill is a wizard when it comes to player development, using their redshirts to full advantage. We know that he hasn't worked with many highly touted recruits. We have seen him have success in the past recruiting some unhearlded prospects. That seems to speak volumes in how Coach Kill can develop a player from unhearlded to a key cog in the lineup.
 

Too fun to pass up

So, your saying that we should be able to land a class ranked in the 90's because that would be a step up from the NIU days of coach Kill??? That analysis isn't analysis at all. I would say that because Coach Kill has such a high lifetime winning percentage that you could market that and get higher caliber players to sign on this year. That is salesmanship with analysis of the market. Everybody likes winners. We have one now. It shouldn't be based solely on what Minnesota did without Kill. We need to sell potential based on a real track record. This year we should have been selling Kill as a proven leader.

The guy is like a blockbuster drug being introduced to a new market. You don't set your expectations low because your old drug pipeline didn't sell. You let everyone know that it was first in market in every market it has been in and clean house 1st Quarter! Apparently, none of you has ever been in that situation with a product. The goal of such a blockbuster move is to exceed market share from all previous markets and solidify the hold by preselling the product. I once participated in sewing up sales for the top 36 hospital systems in the Midwest and gained instant market share of over 90% for what became a multi billion dollar drug. We had all 36 systems signed in the first week of sales. I do think Coach Kill undersells his product because he is used to underselling his product. The guy is in a big house now and needs to know he determines more of the market than he realizes. His coaches need to understand that as well.

Now, he has already lost momentum and he is going to have to live with the fact he will have to work harder to gain those sales. Just think of the lifetime achievement of this coach and how under performing the stock is right now because marketing didn't act swiftly enough. Oh well. There is always next year?
 

Mustang Mountain Man

You are both a market manager and a salesman! I say if you can get hospital systems to make a decision that quickly coach Kill needs to hire you now. Hospital and hospital systems are notoriously slow decision makers.
 



That's not how recruiting works. No MAC team is going to have a top recruiting class, there's no salesman on the planet that could pull that off. If, over years, the MAC became a more highly regarded conference, then it would be an easier sell to recruit to the MAC. But as it stands now, it's difficult to sell, and you can only judge his recruiting at NIU relative to other MAC teams.

Coach Kill's product is a product that won three games last year. You talk about selling medical products, let's go with that analogy. Imagine that you're trying to sell a medical product that killed a significant number of people the previous year. Now, you have a new and improved product to sell, but you're going to have a really tough time convincing people to take a chance on that new and improved product.
 

Having no BCS experience means he'll likely have recruits hesitating to join his program, even though every time he's stepped up a ladder he's won big.

One thing about Kill, is he talks about the relationship with the recruit and all that. That could be a factor in why his recruiting improved over his years at NIU, even this year, he's kinda getting in the door late as far as building up that relationship with a recruit. Not to say he's at any real true disadvantage this year, but I think as he goes through his time here, we're going to find him netting "better" and "better" recruits as he builds up those relationships more and more over the years.

That said, no doubt he's not a star chaser, that's for sure. Him and his staff really seem to value seeing a recruit live and based off that, regardless of how he's regarded, if they like him, they're gonna offer him. Hopefully this strategy pays dividends down the line, as we get the jump on some kids that maybe others ignored cause their tape wasn't as impressive or they just flew under the radar in general.
 

Easy to do if said drug is branded ( exclusivity)

Mustang Mountain Man said:
So, your saying that we should be able to land a class ranked in the 90's because that would be a step up from the NIU days of coach Kill??? That analysis isn't analysis at all. I would say that because Coach Kill has such a high lifetime winning percentage that you could market that and get higher caliber players to sign on this year. That is salesmanship with analysis of the market. Everybody likes winners. We have one now. It shouldn't be based solely on what Minnesota did without Kill. We need to sell potential based on a real track record. This year we should have been selling Kill as a proven leader.

The guy is like a blockbuster drug being introduced to a new market. You don't set your expectations low because your old drug pipeline didn't sell. You let everyone know that it was first in market in every market it has been in and clean house 1st Quarter! Apparently, none of you has ever been in that situation with a product. The goal of such a blockbuster move is to exceed market share from all previous markets and solidify the hold by preselling the product. I once participated in sewing up sales for the top 36 hospital systems in the Midwest and gained instant market share of over 90% for what became a multi billion dollar drug. We had all 36 systems signed in the first week of sales. I do think Coach Kill undersells his product because he is used to underselling his product. The guy is in a big house now and needs to know he determines more of the market than he realizes. His coaches need to understand that as well.

Now, he has already lost momentum and he is going to have to live with the fact he will have to work harder to gain those sales. Just think of the lifetime achievement of this coach and how under performing the stock is right now because marketing didn't act swiftly enough. Oh well. There is always next year?
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Right now Coach Kill is selling the generic product that has multiple competition from the bigger
generic companies ( Michigan, Ohio State, etc....) So he takes what market share he can concentrating on the smaller providers ( 2 & 3 star recruits) to build his reputation that he provides a quality product.;)
 

Mustang Mountain Man said:
So, your saying that we should be able to land a class ranked in the 90's because that would be a step up from the NIU days of coach Kill??? That analysis isn't analysis at all. I would say that because Coach Kill has such a high lifetime winning percentage that you could market that and get higher caliber players to sign on this year. That is salesmanship with analysis of the market. Everybody likes winners. We have one now. It shouldn't be based solely on what Minnesota did without Kill. We need to sell potential based on a real track record. This year we should have been selling Kill as a proven leader.

The guy is like a blockbuster drug being introduced to a new market. You don't set your expectations low because your old drug pipeline didn't sell. You let everyone know that it was first in market in every market it has been in and clean house 1st Quarter! Apparently, none of you has ever been in that situation with a product. The goal of such a blockbuster move is to exceed market share from all previous markets and solidify the hold by preselling the product. I once participated in sewing up sales for the top 36 hospital systems in the Midwest and gained instant market share of over 90% for what became a multi billion dollar drug. We had all 36 systems signed in the first week of sales. I do think Coach Kill undersells his product because he is used to underselling his product. The guy is in a big house now and needs to know he determines more of the market than he realizes. His coaches need to understand that as well.

Now, he has already lost momentum and he is going to have to live with the fact he will have to work harder to gain those sales. Just think of the lifetime achievement of this coach and how under performing the stock is right now because marketing didn't act swiftly enough. Oh well. There is always next year?
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Please clarify just some of the difficult to interpret parts of the analogy. I think he is from the sales school who has to live with their customers long term, not just rack up sales in the first year, I assume so do you. Having a big bang with no follow up is what the last guy did.
I am mystified by what momentum he has lost, he is doing exactly what he planned to do all along. Would you explain how he has lost momentun by filling half his class in June with kids he wants?
 



There are definitly diamonds out there in the rough who are not being found, but you can't have a whole class filled with these prospects. There comes a time you need to get some higher level players. Your first year I would think you could pull higher level recruits based on the excitement of a new coach and the potential turn around. I don't need 4 star players, but we do need some guys who are being recruited outside of the mac conference. The Big Ten is not the mac.
Jerry Kill has succeeded where he has been, but you don't get to be a Big Ten coach without exceeding at a lower level (I guess with brewster being the exception). In the end wins and losses will be what matters and it is still early, but hopefully we will still pull some higher end prospects.
 

ryanlee1 said:
There are definitly diamonds out there in the rough who are not being found, but you can't have a whole class filled with these prospects. There comes a time you need to get some higher level players. Your first year I would think you could pull higher level recruits based on the excitement of a new coach and the potential turn around. I don't need 4 star players, but we do need some guys who are being recruited outside of the mac conference. The Big Ten is not the mac.
Jerry Kill has succeeded where he has been, but you don't get to be a Big Ten coach without exceeding at a lower level (I guess with brewster being the exception). In the end wins and losses will be what matters and it is still early, but hopefully we will still pull some higher end prospects.
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I agree, most new coaches see a bump up in recruiting the first couple of years at a new job because they can sell optimism and a new vision. Haven't seen any signs of this bump yet with Kill. Once you get beyond the first couple seasons that initial momentum is gone and recruits will look primarily at his win loss record here. If the talent he already has isn't according to him that great and he isn't taking advantage of the initial bump in recruiting then it may be more difficult to get the wins necessary to attract good recruits in seasons 3 and 4. It is early however and maybe he will suprise. He seems like a good coach, my only concern is can he get the talent needed to compete at a high level.
 

Sales is all about relationship building. It takes at least 5 times contacting a prospect before they ever decide to commit and many times the sales person never gets the sale. He or she might get the sale the second or third time on a different product. ie. player.
 

My argument is opportunity lost

Jerry Kill had a once in a lifetime chance to crow about his success as a coach to land some highly talented players who are showing interest and have excellent athletic ability and Minnesota offers. He is scaring these guys away. They want similar players next to them. Not guys who will not be able to contribute at the same rate. So his success at landing recruits without recognition is his Achilles heel. He is then losing his major targets of opportunity. The elite don't want to associate with the non elite. They want to be stars on great teams, not just be great on the team. Many a contract is lost over ego. To overcome ego you need a way to bring 'the brag' to the table. Jerry Kill is not capable of doing this. He doesn't know how to sell at the elite level. He needs to be coached in this area as soon as possible. His whole staff needs to head off next February to an elite sales academy or institution. Football isn't just getting to hob nob with TCU and other Universities coaches in the off season.

You are a blockbuster coach. Don't blow it by stubbornly holding on to the past. What do players have to brag about right now? The coach! Not other players. When that turns around and Kill still wins, then he has a ready made recruiting machine. Everybody will line up and pound on the door to get in.
 

For so many obvious reasons, you show that know little about college football, even less about recruiting, and are oblivious about relationships and character. Football is football. Jerry Kill knows "football smart," which is the type of player he is recruiting. You know nothing of "football," nor "smart".

Congrats, MMM. You have proven that you are one of the all-time, smokin', analytical idiots of our time. Man, that ignore list is creeping upward.
 

ryanlee1 said:
Your first year I would think you could pull higher level recruits based on the excitement of a new coach and the potential turn around.
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Or the uncertainty of a new coach could make recruits wary. Plus a turn around is long term - recruits may be reluctant to have their college career be in a team's rebuilding phase. Players want to play for a good team, not for a team that might be good in a few years.
 

Any recruits that are being "scared off" by Kill probably wouldn't be a good match for this team. You seriously underestimate how difficult it is to "sell" recruits to come and play for a team that one three games the previous year, and the last 8-win season was 8 years ago.
 

highwayman said:
For so many obvious reasons, you show that know little about college football, even less about recruiting, and are oblivious about relationships and character. Football is football. Jerry Kill knows "football smart," which is the type of player he is recruiting. You know nothing of "football," nor "smart".

Congrats, MMM. You have proven that you are one of the all-time, smokin', analytical idiots of our time. Man, that ignore list is creeping upward.
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Character. Jerry Kill does not exclusively know character. Nor is he the only guy on earth that is smart. And, as you act as his unofficial guardian, do you think Jerry Kill would want you to toss about derogatory descriptions of a person you know so very little about? I think a person of character does not choose character assassination over what is a disagreement, not about Jerry Kills overall ability, but his ability to land elite players he has already offered, which has been quite a few. He has offered 19 scholarships to 4 or 5 star athletes. Of that he has landed a soft verbal from 1 at a rate of return of ~5%. Overall his rate of return for all athletes is now at ~10%. So his offers to elite athletes has a return half of normal. But, compared to the non 4 and 5 star offers, he has a return of 16%. So his success rate at the low end is 3 times as successful. He offered 19% of his offers to elite athletes. I think he well understood their character and he has already identified them as being part of his football 'smart'. I think coach Kill wants higher rated players and has not succeeded in landing them. My suggestion that the elite coaching staff we have hired to go to a seminar with elite minds on recruiting is not antithetical to my knowledge of recruiting or success in general, as you have so very publicly suggested. I think the suggestion has merit because we can see from simple numbers that he has not succeeded where he intended to succeed. I suggest the Wharton school because they are an elite school in regard to selling and recruiting. They will customize their program to the needs of the staff and they can condense it to seminar of less than a week. As far as I am concerned, I have at least looked at the problem from the point of view of acceptance ratio. All you have offered is a few slurs and hyperbole.
 

Mustang Mountain Man said:
his ability to land elite players he has already offered, which has been quite a few. He has offered 19 scholarships to 4 or 5 star athletes. Of that he has landed a soft verbal from 1 at a rate of return of ~5%. Overall his rate of return for all athletes is now at ~10%. So his offers to elite athletes has a return half of normal. But, compared to the non 4 and 5 star offers, he has a return of 16%. So his success rate at the low end is 3 times as successful.
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Do you have percentages of "elite players" who have committed, compared to "low end" players with a BCS offer who have committed? Do you think that may possibly skew the results? In other words, if very few top end recruits commit early (usually the case) Jerry Kill has likely offered many that have not yet committed. How many of his "elite player" offers have committed elsewhere?
 

Mustang Mountain Man said:
Character. Jerry Kill does not exclusively know character. Nor is he the only guy on earth that is smart. And, as you act as his unofficial guardian, do you think Jerry Kill would want you to toss about derogatory descriptions of a person you know so very little about? I think a person of character does not choose character assassination over what is a disagreement, not about Jerry Kills overall ability, but his ability to land elite players he has already offered, which has been quite a few. He has offered 19 scholarships to 4 or 5 star athletes. Of that he has landed a soft verbal from 1 at a rate of return of ~5%. Overall his rate of return for all athletes is now at ~10%. So his offers to elite athletes has a return half of normal. But, compared to the non 4 and 5 star offers, he has a return of 16%. So his success rate at the low end is 3 times as successful. He offered 19% of his offers to elite athletes. I think he well understood their character and he has already identified them as being part of his football 'smart'. I think coach Kill wants higher rated players and has not succeeded in landing them. My suggestion that the elite coaching staff we have hired to go to a seminar with elite minds on recruiting is not antithetical to my knowledge of recruiting or success in general, as you have so very publicly suggested. I think the suggestion has merit because we can see from simple numbers that he has not succeeded where he intended to succeed. I suggest the Wharton school because they are an elite school in regard to selling and recruiting. They will customize their program to the needs of the staff and they can condense it to seminar of less than a week. As far as I am concerned, I have at least looked at the problem from the point of view of acceptance ratio. All you have offered is a few slurs and hyperbole.
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What coach would you have liked us to hire that would have several 4 and 5 star athletes committed to us right now?
 

Mustang, different coaches succeed for different reasons. Kill is a likeable but ordinary guy who succeeds largely because he's a fantastic football guy. Some coaches succeed because they're fantastic salesmen, even though they aren't great football minds.

There are very few coaches who are both great football thinkers and brilliant salesmen - Lou Holtz was one of those.

I suspect you're right that Jerry Kill wouldn't succeed in your business, but that doesn't mean he's muffing his opportunity at the U of M. (He might be, but this isn't proof.) He's just continuing to do what has brought him success in the past. You and I can probably agree that when you hire an employee who has been successful everywhere he has ever worked you don't expect him to change his entire approach to work on his first day on the job.
 

You guys need to all calm down. Kill will do a very good job of recruiting here at the U.

It is much harder to judge the talent of 2* and 3* players than it is to judge the talent of 4* and 5* players. All of the 5* players should have the talent to help your team, but only the right 2* players will have the talent. Kill has proven repeatedly that he can pick out the talented players and turn them into major contributors. He did this with the handicap of not being at schools that could not attract 4* and 5* players. When we win consistently he will be able to attract enough national 4* players to the U.
 

Mustang Mountain Man said:
Character. Jerry Kill does not exclusively know character. Nor is he the only guy on earth that is smart. And, as you act as his unofficial guardian, do you think Jerry Kill would want you to toss about derogatory descriptions of a person you know so very little about? I think a person of character does not choose character assassination over what is a disagreement, not about Jerry Kills overall ability, but his ability to land elite players he has already offered, which has been quite a few. He has offered 19 scholarships to 4 or 5 star athletes. Of that he has landed a soft verbal from 1 at a rate of return of ~5%. Overall his rate of return for all athletes is now at ~10%. So his offers to elite athletes has a return half of normal. But, compared to the non 4 and 5 star offers, he has a return of 16%. So his success rate at the low end is 3 times as successful. He offered 19% of his offers to elite athletes. I think he well understood their character and he has already identified them as being part of his football 'smart'. I think coach Kill wants higher rated players and has not succeeded in landing them. My suggestion that the elite coaching staff we have hired to go to a seminar with elite minds on recruiting is not antithetical to my knowledge of recruiting or success in general, as you have so very publicly suggested. I think the suggestion has merit because we can see from simple numbers that he has not succeeded where he intended to succeed. I suggest the Wharton school because they are an elite school in regard to selling and recruiting. They will customize their program to the needs of the staff and they can condense it to seminar of less than a week. As far as I am concerned, I have at least looked at the problem from the point of view of acceptance ratio. All you have offered is a few slurs and hyperbole.
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Jerry Kill is having more success landing 2 star athletes then 5 star ones?! :eek: Wait...whats your point? You think some coaches find it much easier to land 5 stars as opposed to 2 stars?
 

btowngopher said:
Jerry Kill is having more success landing 2 star athletes then 5 star ones?! :eek: Wait...whats your point? You think some coaches find it much easier to land 5 stars as opposed to 2 stars?
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Follow the 80/20 rule. 80% of football production will occur from 20% of the players. Concentrate 80% of your time on the 20% and you might find that we land more than a soft verbal. Again, everybody is cheering the lower 20% and praising its value. Try again. Make my happy with 2 star athletes. Not working. Not impressive. Not buying into a season ticket for 2 star projects. Loyalty has nothing to do with it. It is entertainment or not entertaining. Prove to me that Kill and company are putting in the extra effort to land their offers. You can't. I am going to run a study on how may similarly ranked BCS schools have been landing higher rated athletes than us. I would think we again will be in the lowest quartile even if the other school has a new coach. Catch me tomorrow as I bring in my results (or Monday).
 



alchemy2u said:
You guys need to all calm down. Kill will do a very good job of recruiting here at the U.

It is much harder to judge the talent of 2* and 3* players than it is to judge the talent of 4* and 5* players. All of the 5* players should have the talent to help your team, but only the right 2* players will have the talent. Kill has proven repeatedly that he can pick out the talented players and turn them into major contributors. He did this with the handicap of not being at schools that could not attract 4* and 5* players. When we win consistently he will be able to attract enough national 4* players to the U.
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The problem with this theory, in my mind, is that Kill has not proven what you stated. He's proven he can win to some level in the MAC with two stars kids in a conference that is full of two star kids. He was not playing against 4 star kids in the MAC, but he will be in the Big Ten. It's quite a leap to believe that a coach will compete in the Big Ten with a class full of guys who don't have BCS offers. I'd love to believe that Kill will do a very good job recruiting here, or that he's getting underrated guys, or whatever else can be said to rationalize this class, but all the hard evidence we have about Kill's recruiting since he's arrived points in the opposite direction.
 

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