Kenpom's B1G Predictions

[Gopher07]

Came out yesterday, but here's his predictions (based on offensive and defensive ratings through 12/31, and 10,000 simulations). The percent is the percent chance he gives each team of taking home the regular-season title:

Indiana: 54.89%
Ohio St: 16.30%
Minnesota: 12.75%
Michigan: 10.65%
Wisconsin: 4.34%
Michigan St: 0.82%
Iowa: 0.14%
Illinois: 0.10%

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/conference_title_predictions

Also of note, from our non-conference, he has Memphis as the C-USA favorites and NDSU as prohibitive favorites in the Summit.

 

[SelectionSunday]

and Jerry Palm's latest

Interesting stuff. Surprised to see Ohio State in the #2 spot and Michigan in the #4.

Kind of piggy-backing on that, here are the latest numbers from Jerry Palm at CBSSports.com. Two top-50 wins (includes conference win over MSU) and six top-100 are pretty good numbers for the Gophers at this point of the season.

Big Ten in the RPI (includes future members)
3. Michigan (12-0)
8. GOPHERS (13-1)
11. Illinois (12-1)
15. Indiana (13-1)
28. Michigan State (10-3)
45. Ohio State (10-2)
61. Nebraska (9-4)
71. Maryland (12-1)
82. Iowa (11-3)
98. Rutgers (9-2)
118. Northwestern (9-4)
121. Penn State (8-4)
143. Wisconsin (9-4)
185. Purdue (6-6)

Gophers Nonconference Opponents
1. Duke (12-0)
40. North Dakota State (9-3)
64. Stanford (9-4)
85. Florida State (8-4)
88. South Dakota State (7-5)
95. Memphis (9-3)
131. Richmond (9-5)
144. North Florida (5-8)
153. USC (5-8)
177. Tennessee State (5-7)
247. Toledo (4-7) -- ugly home loss to Chicago State on New Year's Eve
266. American (4-9)
300. Lafayette (4-10)

 

[From the Barn]

He has OSU ranked higher, 7 vs. 9. Michigan is ranked above the Gophers, who are 10th. I think this is an in-conference strength of schedule quirk.

 

[gopherbadgerman]

Came out yesterday, but here's his predictions (based on offensive and defensive ratings through 12/31, and 10,000 simulations). The percent is the percent chance he gives each team of taking home the regular-season title:

Indiana: 54.89%
Ohio St: 16.30%
Minnesota: 12.75%
Michigan: 10.65%
Wisconsin: 4.34%
Michigan St: 0.82%
Iowa: 0.14%
Illinois: 0.10%

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/conference_title_predictions

Also of note, from our non-conference, he has Memphis as the C-USA favorites and NDSU as prohibitive favorites in the Summit.

Interesting. I must have been way off, as I thought Ill was close to MN this year, but according to this MN has over a 100x better chance of winning the B10. Hope this stays the course!

 

[Gopher07]

Interesting. I must have been way off, as I thought Ill was close to MN this year, but according to this MN has over a 100x better chance of winning the B10. Hope this stays the course!

Kenpom ranks Illinois #41 as of today - generally poor (#73) AdjD rating brings them down. Will be interesting to see how they play out during the conference season (starting tonight @ Purdue) as I think they're still generally an unknown, with close games against mediocre competition, but the big win against Gonzaga as well.

 

[SelectionSunday]

Would be great to see Purdue knock off the Illini tonight. Any NCAA contenders' loss (other than the Gophers) to one of the likely bottom 4 (Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue) would be a nice early-season bonus.