It's back! Sagarin predictions (Week 2)

[Gopher07]

I'm back with some pretty loose predictions based on Jeff Sagarin's formulas (found at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/).

As always, these "predictions" are for entertainment purposes and shouldn't be taken as gospel - especially this early in the season. Things can - and will - change a lot as more games are played. Always fun, for me at least, to see how the lines move throughout the year though.

Without further ado ...

This year, I will be using GOLDEN_MEAN for the predictions. Mainly because, who doesn't love gold?

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites.

vs. MTSU -10
@ TCU +8.5
vs. SJSU -12
@ Michigan +11
vs Northwestern -4
vs Purdue -14
@ Illinois -2
vs Iowa +3
vs Ohio State +14
@ Nebraska +11
@ Wisconsin +17

Predicted Record 6-6 (3-5)

Likely wins (>6 point difference in favor of Minnesota): MTSU, SJSU, Purdue
Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): vs Northwestern, @ Illinois, vs Iowa
Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): @ TCU, @ Michigan, vs Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Wisconsin

 

[maroonedinCA]

Thanks for doing this again, I always found it to be very interesting. Some of the things that jump off the page to me:

1). The TCU spread seems very big. I know you have to account for home field (+3, I believe...) but 5.5 even seems too much.
2). I think we're better than 2 TD favorites to Purdue.
3). That last stretch of games is going to be difficult and a great test.

 

[e.bigelow]

I can't believe Illinios is at a -2. That's crazy. They almost lost to Youngstown State.

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

How are these even calculated with only one week of data? Our only data point is a 22 point win over a team whose only data point is a 22 point loss to us. Wisconsin's only data point is a 4 point loss to a team whose only data point is a 4 point win over Wisconsin. How on Earth can we be underdogs based on that? (I'm not saying that we should actually be favored over Wisconsin, just curious as to what is considered in these calculations).

 

[Spoofin]

I may take a loan to bet MN straight up against TCU. If they are anywhere near +8.5 I think the payoff would be huge. I still think that game is virtually a lock for us.

 

[Gopher07]

How are these even calculated with only one week of data? Our only data point is a 22 point win over a team whose only data point is a 22 point loss to us. Wisconsin's only data point is a 4 point loss to a team whose only data point is a 4 point win over Wisconsin. How on Earth can we be underdogs based on that? (I'm not saying that we should actually be favored over Wisconsin, just curious as to what is considered in these calculations).

There is a preseason ranking that comes into play, at least until a certain number of games are played and the formula can connect all the teams. That's the reason why these will be pretty volatile for the first few weeks - it's partially on on-the-field results, partially on prediction. The weight given to those preseason rankings becomes less and less as the weeks go on, being completely removed from the formula around (I think) the 5th week.

 

[Gopher07]

Across other computer ratings, we're as high as 15th and as low as 64th.

 

[West Fargo Gopher Fan]

 

[Frog]

Frog Here

I may take a loan to bet MN straight up against TCU. If they are anywhere near +8.5 I think the payoff would be huge. I still think that game is virtually a lock for us.

I remember the same thing being said from a variety of Wisconsin fans a few years back. Back when they were scoring 80.

I'll be hanging out for a couple weeks till the game. Not going to troll you guys. Looking forward to the test of our new offense against your D.