Is it possible to win a championship at Minnesota?

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Khaliq

Khaliq

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I have a question for the board. Since ostensibly a national title is the goal of any BCS school, I was wondering if you all think it's possible for a school like Minnesota to win a BCS Championship. Looking at the past ten years it seems like a pretty exclusive group:

2008 Florida
2007 LSU
2006 Florida
2005 Texas
2004 USC
2003 LSU
2002 Ohio State
2001 Miami
2000 Oklahoma
1999 Florida State

Do you think it's possible for Minnesota to crack into that elite group? I do not mean with the current roster, I just mean in general. If not what obstacles do you see between where the program stands now and where it needs to be to compete on that high level? What can be done about them?

To clarify I am not asking if this current group will compete for a title, but whether it is possible to build a championship caliber program at Minnesota period.
 

No

I don't think we ever can be a championship calibre program. My best case scenario is a team that legitimately challenges for a Big Ten title every few years.

Best case is like Wisconsin under Alvarez or more realistically like Ferentz at Iowa. A consistent top 20 program that is occassionally top 10.

It is doable and we would be ecstatic with that.
 

Focus on the Big 10 title

The task is certainly daunting when you look at a list like that.

I think the goal for the program should be to win Big 10 championships. If we are able to do that, we will be in position to at least challenge for the national title.

To answer the question: Do I think we can win a national champoionship? Well, I do think we can build a program that can win a Big 10 championship. And I believe that the Big 10 is still one of the top conferences in the country. So, yes, I think we can win a national championship.
 


Gophers natl champs?

Khaliq said:
I have a question for the board. Since ostensibly a national title is the goal of any BCS school, I was wondering if you all think it's possible for a school like Minnesota to win a BCS Championship. To clarify I am not asking if this current group will compete for a title, but whether it is possible to build a championship caliber program at Minnesota period.
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In a word yes. Not necessarily be in the hunt for it every year, but win one, yes. It would take continuing good recruiting, coaching and some luck in how players fit together for a special year.

However, I expect them to be at least in the middle of the Rose Bowl race every year, starting 2009 or 2010.
 


Possible? Yes. Likely? ...

GopherBeef said:
Well, I do think we can build a program that can win a Big 10 championship. And I believe that the Big 10 is still one of the top conferences in the country. So, yes, I think we can win a national championship.
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For it to be possible we would need to sustain success in the B10 or have the stars align. If we were to become a perennial top 20 like Iowa/Wisky were in recent years I doubt it could happen b/c we wouldn’t start the year ranked high enough. You basically have to start ranked in the Top 10 to have a legit shot and even then you need some help b/c if any 2 teams in the Top 5 or so go undefeated (even if you do too) you’re on the outside looking in. But if we were to win a BT title and return a good team the following year I could see us starting in a more plausible position.

This is why I like Brew’s attitude and goals. When he says the Rose Bowl is the goal I take him to mean a B10 title. And honestly I think the #1 goal of any team, in any sport, at any level should be to win their conference title. B/c nothing else you want is possible without it. Win the B10 and you put yourself in a position to achieve bigger and better things.

I would be plenty happy if what we achieved was being a perennial Top 15-25 so long as that didn’t become the new goal. I’m realistic that we will not become an OSU, UF, USC, Texas who reloads every year. If Brewster or any other coach brings us to that next level we will still see “down” years. But I’ll be exstatic if we a) keep the B10 title as the goal and win it every few years, b) start challenging ourselves with better NC schedules, and c) raise the average win level to where finishing in the Top 4 of the B10 standings becomes the norm rather than the exception.
 

I think we can but not on a consistent level, however to do this the university and the alumni will need to make a huge financial committment to continue to upgrade the facilities and expand the stadium as we progress to get us over that hump towards BCS championship. When I look at the list of schools I see teams that pack their stadiums every week and a solid alumni group that opens the pocketbooks to give them top notch facilities and coaching staffs. Having a T. Boone Pickens type guy as a alumnus wouldn't hurt either.
 

NO.
We can win Big Ten titles though. The Big Ten is just too far behing the Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC right now. Maybe things will change next decade, but I doubt it.
 

tjgesquire said:
NO.
We can win Big Ten titles though. The Big Ten is just too far behing the Big 12, Pac-10 and SEC right now. Maybe things will change next decade, but I doubt it.
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The question was is it possible, not is it possible right now. And I don't think we're as far behind as you think we are, particularly against the Pac 10. The Big 12 was up this season and it has been for the last few but it has not sustained being better than the Big 10 over the last ten years time.
 



Well sure it's possible...

I'm mean Georgia Tech was co-Champion in 1990 so anything is possible. 2 large facts exist, which make it very difficult: 1. In the BCS any one loss SEC team would be considered better than an upstart Big Ten team.
2. The USC/N.D./Texas factor. Which is anytime anybody with one loss is in the Title game who is not one of these three schools, a one loss team from these three schools will always be thought of as superior. This year before the last game Texas was thought of as having been screwed. The reality is that it was Utah who took the short end. After the game, some love went Utah's way, but all the talking heads said USC should have been in the game. that would be tough to stop that kind of thinking.
 

grunkiejr said:
The question was is it possible, not is it possible right now. And I don't think we're as far behind as you think we are, particularly against the Pac 10. The Big 12 was up this season and it has been for the last few but it has not sustained being better than the Big 10 over the last ten years time.
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Plus, the Pac Ten has been USC playing a home game for their bowl the majority of the time. That is a huge advantage. Other than that the Pac Ten has been pedestrian as of late.
Cal should be a interesting measure of where we are.
 

A more important question is whether they should TRY to be a National contender. In my opinion, the answer to that is absolutely yes. Why even bother to field a team if it is resigned to mediocrity? If a Big Ten team went undefeated in the regular season they'd have a claim to the title game. Prior to the 1987 season everyone would have said the same thing of the Twins: "It's the Twins. Why even try when NY has more $$$ ? "
 

Sustained success

It would certainly take sustained success to prove to voters that we deserve to be there. We would have to start the season ranked realtively high as GoAUpher mentioned, and as re3886 alluded to, we would have to prove that we deserved it rather than an "elite" program with more name recongnition. So, obviously, a lot would have to fall in place over the course of a number of years.

In addition to Georgia Tech's title in 1990, there are some other good examples of some "non-elite" programs more recently that have come within maybe 1 win of at least having a shot at the the championship.

2008: Utah and Texas Tech (I realize Utah was undefeated)
2007: Mizzou, West Virginia, Kansas
2006: Boise State, Louisville, Wisconsin
2005: West Virginia
2004: Utah, Louisville, Iowa, Cal
2003: Iowa, Wash. State, Miami (OH)
2002: K State, Iowa, Wash. State
2001: Oregon, Colorado, Wash State, Maryland

I know some of these could be disputed. But the point is that these are examples of programs that are not usually mentioned among the elite that have come very close to at least playing for the national title the last few years.
 



Excellent question and I'll start by saying that the goal of the team should be to win Big Ten titles. If you win a Big Ten title and are undefeated the team is more than likely to be playing in the Mythical National Championship game. Since the beginning of the BCS the only team to go undefeated in a BCS conference and not play in the game was Auburn in 2004 when USC & Oklahoma were also undefeated.

The Gophers are a long shot to be able to compete at the championship level because they don't have the built in advantages of being located in Texas, California, Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania (the states with the most D-1 football recruits/yr...Louissiana has the most/capita which benefits LSU). However, within the last 20 years two Big Ten teams with similar disadvantages have made runs that put them on the doorstep of a championship. Wisconsin went 11-1 and won a Rose Bowl (with the only loss being to Minnesota!) in 1993. Had Minnesota not beat Wisconsin they would have been the only undefeated team in the country and likely would have been awarded the national championship. In 2002, prior to losing in the Orange Bowl, Iowa only lost one regular season game which also would have put them in contention for a BCS Championship. Wisconsin and Iowa are the two programs that most resemble Minnesota and they have both found ways to compete near that level and with a few breaks could have won it. Wisconsin in 2006 was actually pretty close too.

It is an uphill climb for Minnesota, just as it was for Iowa and Wisconsin. We would more than likely need to go undefeated because Minnesota doesn't have the same name recognition of USC, Florida, Texas, OU, Ohio State, etc. If any of those teams finished 11-1 and the Gophers finished 11-1 they would likely get the nod for the BCS Championship ahead of the Gophers.

So yes, it is possible for the Gophers to win a national championship but it is unlikely and our goals should be to go to Rose Bowls because that is within our control.
 

Under the way this Bowl system works where people basically vote for who they think is the best team? It will be extremely difficult. It's hard for a team to get the votes needed to get into the game in the first place. A team like Minnesota would have to look almost brilliant throughout the entire season in order to just gain the respect enough to get the votes to get into the championship game. If some day, we switch it up to a playoff type system, I'm willing to bet you'd see a few different type of champions in that list.

But to answer your question, YES it is possible, but VERY difficult to do.
 

Our turn?

Great discussion. I look at the answer to this questions in two ways.
1) What has to happen on TCF field: We would need to have a very talented roster. The teams that have won that NC the last decade or so, have deep, talented rosters. The thing that separates them from the rest (there is only one NC (usually)) is luck and two to three STAR players. A QB, RB, WR, sometimes a knockout defensive player, but they get there with a couple stars that have tremendous players around them.
2) What has to happen in general: The Gophers would have to be undefeated as previously mentioned; a one loss BigTen team, at least in the near future, would have trouble getting in the Big game. If we're one of two or the only undefeated team, then we'd have to be there (right?). Then it's back to point #1, where winning the Big game comes down to competing in the Big game with great players on our team. Some BigTen teams either haven't survived the conference schedule unblemished or have lost the Big game. It's tough to get both.

Hope recruiting and coaching can get us through #1. Then #2 will take care of itself eventually.
 

17% if the BCS teams have had a shot in the title game. There have been 11 title games only 11 teams have played in it. It is pretty safe to say the champion will come from the below participants.

Oklahoma 4
Ohio State 3
Florida State 3
USC 2
Florida 2
Miami 2
LSU 2
Tennessee 1
Virginia Tech 1
Nebraska 1
Texas 1
 

Not until the Vikings leave town and all Football $$ is put toward the Gophers.
 

Of course it's possible.

Obviously we'd have to go undefeated.

So the first question that needs to be asked is, "how many undefeated Bowl eligible teams have gone undefeated and not been crowned?"

If it's a small number then I think it's quite possible. If it's a larger number then very unlikely.

Stat guru's go to work.
 

Playoff

If/When they ever go to an 8-team format instead of the BCS it will bring in a lot more teams to be potentially national championship teams, including teams like Minnesota. If they never go to a playoff the chances are slim to none IMO.
 

Only if the BCS goes unfixed and we never have playoffs.
 

Yes.

Pure and simple the answer is yes.

The one thing that I firmly believe needs to happen to give any Big Ten team a chance is to find a way to play into December.

The big ten will struggle unless and until we lose the 2-3 week disparity in lay-off for Big Ten teams vs. Big 12, SEC etc.

Also, on the point of a future play-off, if its going to happen, the games need to be played in team stadiums. I'd love to see USC come up to Minneapolis in January to face the Gophers in a play-off game.......
 

Yes. Utah, is a prime example of why it's possible. Their conference competition is not considered "BCS caliber", but the point is a non-bcs school is being talked about for national championship consideration.

Give a team the right circumstances (luck, talent, overacheivement, schedule) and anything is possible.
 

absolutly not

Only Florida can...
 

Absolutely a championship can be won at the University of Minnesota, but the stars would have to align perfectly. The upside to the program is higher than all but Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten. Could Minnesota go undefeated in a year where they miss either Michigan or Ohio State and be one of two (or the sole) undefeated teams in the nation? I think that's a plausible scenario to happen, but obviously we are a long way away from that happening.

I disagree that it would be more likely for Minnesota to win a national title under a playoff scenario. I believe that under a playoff system in football the deeper teams in the nation will have a huge advantage. I could see Minnesota having the 30 players necessary to win one game against a great team for a title, but to beat 2-3 great teams in a playoff? I think that would take 45-50 players and then the advantage swings even further to teams like Florida, Texas, and USC. I don't believe, for example, that are 4th CB or 3rd OT will ever be as good as the players at those positions at the above schools. By the time you play that 14-15th game, those reserve players will be exposed.

I have a feeling more fans would feel a national title was possible if we had won the Big Ten (or even finished second or third) some time in the last twenty years.
 

The balance of power in college football....

17 of the last 22 national champions have come from schools south of the Mason-Dixon line, including 10 of the last 11. The balance of power in college footbal is CLEARLY in the south, southwest, and southeast. High School football in California, Texas, and Florida have changed the shape of the college game. Ohio and Pennsylvania are falling farther and farther behind in the number of quality HS football players compared the the three states listed above. Even states like Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia are closing in on quality HS players produced. Add to that the fact the the best JUCO football factories are in the south and California and it becomes clear.....the south has built in advantages, and I'm not sure it will ever change. Look at the recruiting rankings. This Gopher recruiting class would rank in the top half of any conference with one exception......the SEC. This class ranks 9th compared to other SEC schools. While I believe we can certainly compete at a much higher level than we have the last 45 years, winning a championship....well. I'm not sure Michigan or Notre Dame will even play for a national championship again, if I'm being totally honest. Take Ohio St out of the equation and the northern/NE schools have done NOTHING the last 10-12 years. NOTHING
 

Gopher said:
17 of the last 22 national champions have come from schools south of the Mason-Dixon line, including 10 of the last 11. The balance of power in college footbal is CLEARLY in the south, southwest, and southeast. High School football in California, Texas, and Florida have changed the shape of the college game. Ohio and Pennsylvania are falling farther and farther behind in the number of quality HS football players compared the the three states listed above. Even states like Alabama and Mississippi and Georgia are closing in on quality HS players produced. Add to that the fact the the best JUCO football factories are in the south and California and it becomes clear.....the south has built in advantages, and I'm not sure it will ever change. Look at the recruiting rankings. This Gopher recruiting class would rank in the top half of any conference with one exception......the SEC. This class ranks 9th compared to other SEC schools. While I believe we can certainly compete at a much higher level than we have the last 45 years, winning a championship....well. I'm not sure Michigan or Notre Dame will even play for a national championship again, if I'm being totally honest. Take Ohio St out of the equation and the northern/NE schools have done NOTHING the last 10-12 years. NOTHING
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I didn't realize the Mason/Dixon line extended all the way to California. If you are going to extend it that far, what is the percentage of BCS conferences that are north of the Mason/Dixon line versus those that are south of it? The entire SEC, 11/12 from the ACC, 9/12 from the Big 12, and at least 4/10 from the Pac 10 are located south of the "Mason/Dixon line" if you extend it to split Southern Cal & Northern Cal. Considering the schools in the Big East have virtually no football history (Cincinnati, Rutgers, etc) which makes it a challenge to recruit athletes to, what is percentage of BCS schools north of the line excluding the Big East? You're left with the Big Ten, Notre Dame, Boston College, Iowa State, Colorado, Nebraska, Cal, Stanford and the 4 in the Pacific Northwest. If you go back one more year you have 2 in 12 titles being won by two Big Ten schools (OSU & Michigan).

Washington was strong but USC is now keeping all of the players from California that formerly went North. Cal has also picked up their program which further limits the potential of Washington. In it's glory days Nebraska fed off of speed from Texas but those players are staying in Texas or Oklahoma and the emergence of Texas Tech and even TCU demonstrate the shift. Notre Dame is still a fixture in the top 10 recruiting classes but they have not produced anything out of it. Outside of Ohio State and Michigan (PSU wasn't a member yet) most of the Big Ten went down in quality in the 70's.

It should be noted that Texas HS football is improving too. It's not just population, it is the culture of the state. They hire their HS coaches to be full time coaches and they don't do anything but football. They have fall football, they have 7 on 7 football in the spring which is sanctioned as a HS sport, they have a class like a study hall for all of the football players where the coaches work with the players, and they take their strength and conditioning very seriously. I don't see a state like Minnesota putting this much emphasis on football which means that the Gopher football program will always be at a disadvantage. If we did have this emphasis guys like Cole Jirik, Derek Engel, and Cooper Wahlo, Jr. would be more developed and would be receiving scholarship offers from Minnesota instead of being asked to walk on. I'm not saying Minnesota should change it's ways, I'm just stating that it makes a difference.
 

Schnoodler said:
Of course it's possible.

Obviously we'd have to go undefeated.

So the first question that needs to be asked is, "how many undefeated Bowl eligible teams have gone undefeated and not been crowned?"

If it's a small number then I think it's quite possible. If it's a larger number then very unlikely.

Stat guru's go to work.
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Auburn from a BCS conference right? Any other BCS conference team go undefeated and not get invited to the title game? I think if a Big Ten team went undefeated they would be in over 1-loss teams from other conferences.
 


rugger14 said:
Auburn from a BCS conference right? Any other BCS conference team go undefeated and not get invited to the title game? I think if a Big Ten team went undefeated they would be in over 1-loss teams from other conferences.
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Auburn got snubbed by 2 other undefeated teams.
 

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