According to their predictions, they are estimating a Big Ten finish as such:
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Michigan
(non-bowl teams)
That said, I agree -- must be a schedule thing. I'm sure we're better than a 7th place team.
Here is my synopsis on the teams that they have listed as bowl eligible.
Everybody has gotten used to
OSU just reloading and there is no reason to expect anything different this season. Their fans expect that 2010 is going to be the year they make another run at the BCS Championship but they should still be very good in 2009. Their biggest question is a very young OL that has not gelled yet. Without Beanie, Pryor will have to carry the load and it remains to be seen whether he can do it.
Just my opinion but I don't see
Penn State going to a BCS bowl this year. They have failed to sustain success in the Big Ten and have constantly been up and down. Even though they return their QB/RB they lose 3 OL (at least 2 were all conference) and 3 WR (1 or 2 was all conference & 2 were drafted). They also lose their entire secondary and DE's. Their defense will still be good (that LB corp is the best in the Big Ten) but it probably won't be as good as last year.
MSU may have finished 3rd last year but the separation between 2 & 3 was huge and 3 and 7 was much smaller. They won every close game last year and they relied on a senior QB & a senior RB to carry the load. If their turnover margin declines with a new backfield I think they could go from 9-3 to 7-5 very quickly. They have a solid D which will keep them in most games.
Iowa has a good OL, a capable QB, above average receivers, and a question at RB but Hampton looked good last year. On D the strength is going to be LB's, they return most of it not all of their secondary, and their biggest question mark is on DL as they try to replace 2 4-year starters at DT. They probably won't be as good against the run in 2009 but they were very good at it in 2008. Their biggest problem is going to be road games @ PSU, @ OSU, @ MSU & @ Wisc.
Illinois is a total wild card to me. Their talent at the skill positions is probably the best in the Big Ten but the OL left something to be desired last year and they lost their 2 best players (Brit Miller & Vontae Davis) from a mediocre defense.
Wisconsin enters the season with huge question marks. They lost experience from the OL but they usually have pretty good depth there. The RB situation should be strong and while the WR's under achieved last year they were young and seemed to come on as the season progressed and this spring. The huge question on offense is at QB where it looks like Sherrer will remain the starter. Defensively this is a team that could have problems because they lost a lot of starters.
Minnesota returns 37 players (38 if Brock is back) out of 44 from their 2008 2-deep depth chart. The team also adds 2 new OL with Carufel & Wills, a new WR with Hayo, and S Kim Royston that are all expected to take jobs away from returning starters. The biggest questions for Minnesota are how players respond to a new offensive and defensive coordinator, replacing K & P on special teams (seems to have been answered this spring), and how much can the same players improve in an off season,
After one year in RR's system
Michigan appears to have found their QB with Tate Forcier. He will be challenged by So Nick Sherridan and Fr Denard Robinson. If Forcier wins the job expect a more fluid offense with a threat to run from the QB spot but also growing pains of having a freshman QB. Around Forcier they return Brandon Minor, one of the best two or three returning RB's (Royster-PSU, Clay-Wisc) and a young but now somewhat experienced receiving corps. Defensively they return their only all conference player at DE Brandon Graham and what was otherwise a very disappointing defense. Greg Robinson (formerly DC at Texas and HC at Syracuse) is the new coordinator and I have no idea what to expect from Michigan's D. I feel like with the talent they recruited in the past they should have been much better last year.
Not listed: Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana (NU could challenge for a bowl but Purdue & Indiana will have very difficult seasons).
- This killed me! As much as I want to believe it, this sums up my feelings pretty well about this year.
