I'm suprised!

[gold04]

I'm suprised that more people have not jumped on the bandwagon that the Gophers may be one of the contenders for the Big Ten title. I have seen it many times that too many people base their predictions too strictly on how a team did the year before. They do not take into account how many players a team loses and other factors. Just look our Gopher team the last two years.

In Brewster's first year I said we'd win 4 maybe 5 games. Many of the Gopher experts were predicting 7 to 8 wins. Wren and Art got mad at me because I changed my prection from 10 wins with Mason to 4 with Brewster and ended up being closer to the correct win total then most people I know. With a coaching change and losing players in the rape case and junior college players deciding not to come here with the new coach, I realized that 2007 was going to be a tough year.

Last year I predicted 8 wins and was mocked at, but I came very close to being right. Both predictions in 07 and 08 I considered other factors then a teams record the year before.

Lets look at the other factors that could be affecting other Big Ten teams performances this year and why the Gophers may contend for the Big Ten title.

OSU - I know they have Pryor but they lost a ton of players. Even on the Big Ten network they said this team will not compete for a national title. They are one of the favorites to win the Big Ten but by their standards this will be a down year.

MSU - They lost their quarterback and a running back who at times carried their team last year. They will struggle a lot more on offense this year.

PSU - They lose their running back and their top three recievers. They will struggle even more in the passing game this year.

Northwestern - They had a fine year with a 5-3 conference record. Experts are saying losing one of the best Northwestern quarterbacks of all time and their 3 top recievers that Fitzgerald has his work cut out for him if he wants to repeat last years performance.

Wisconsin - They were predicted to be a very good team last year and finished 7-6. They lost a ton of seniors and with a Mason like non-conference schedule will finish around the same record.

Michigan is a team on the rise but we do not play them.

Indiana is terrible and we do not play them.

Purdue is terrible and we play them.

Iowa - They lose their running back and will probably stay around the same reocord 9-4.

Illinios - Like MN and Michigan they are a team on the rise this year.


When I look at all the players we have coming back, why not? We have more talent, depth, and expereince than anyone of Masons, Wackers, Guetys, or Holtzs football teams. Why not this year? the pressure lands squarely on the shoulders of our coaches. It will be up to them on how this team performs. I predicted 10 wins for this year but time will only tell

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I am projecting a 6-6 or 7-5 team based on last year.

I certainly think we could do better and I doubt we will do worse.

Here are the top 5 questions I have for 2009:
1) Will the Offensive Line be vastly improved?
2) How well will the offense pick up the new scheme (I'm not as worried about defense)?
3) Will the transfers (Carufel, Royston, Carpenter & Wills) have an immediate impact?
4) Will we have a featured RB that can stay healthy all year?
5) Are some of our opponents not as good as the prognosticators are giving them credit for?

If there are favorable answers to those 5 questions, then I think we could have a VERY good year. I think Ohio State, Penn State, Cal and Iowa are all legitimate top-25 teams and Illinois could be as well. If we win against the other 7 teams on our schedule and can knock off one ranked team, then I would consider it a good year.

Based on players' eligibility and schedule (and hopefully no coaching turnovers) I look to 2010 to be an amazing year. But if we can make that ascention a year earlier, I would be as happy as a little clam.

Go Gophers!

 

[Maximus]

I'm suprised that more people have not jumped on the bandwagon that the Gophers may be one of the contenders for the Big Ten title.

You're surprised that people that have watched Gopher football for the last 10 years, 20 years, 30 years or 40 years are going to temper their expectations?

 

[grunkiejr]

btw--PSU does not lose their RB. Evan Royster will be a Sr and his back up also returns. Aside from their 3 WR's they lose 3 OL, their entire secondary, and 2 DE's.

I think it is a stretch to call Bacher one of the best NU QB's ever. They have Kafka who is a solid QB so the player they'll miss more than Bacher is Tyrell Sutton. Although they managed to play without Sutton for the last 4 or 5 games of last season.

 

[mnboiler]

1st of all to put Purdue in the same league as Indiana when looking at there football teams is a huge insult. I'm not saying that Purdue will be good but I am say they will be much better than Indiana.

2nd it isn't a bad thing that a bunch of people haven't jumped on the bandwagon. That just leads to a fan base is year-to-year in the long run you are better off slowly building a fan base that will come to every game every season and not sell there tickets. It will also lead to a well informed fan base which is much more fun to talk with.

 

[grunkiejr]

1st of all to put Purdue in the same league as Indiana when looking at there football teams is a huge insult. I'm not saying that Purdue will be good but I am say they will be much better than Indiana.

2nd it isn't a bad thing that a bunch of people haven't jumped on the bandwagon. That just leads to a fan base is year-to-year in the long run you are better off slowly building a fan base that will come to every game every season and not sell there tickets. It will also lead to a well informed fan base which is much more fun to talk with.

After the beating Purdue put on Indiana last year it is tough to put them in the same camp. But just like Minnesota tailed off from a talent perspective in Mason's last few years, Purdue did the same under Tiller. Losing all your skill position players will hurt. Bringing back 4 starting OL will help ease the transition for the offense but it will probably be a difficult year in W. Lafayette.

 

[Nervous Gopher]

Where do you guys come from? I'm not going to take the time to shoot all the holes in your silliness that it deserves, but will ask this in reference to PSU:

1. What RB is it "they are losing?" Evan Royster was number 1 last year and number 1 out of spring ball 2009.

2. You do know their 3 "new WRs" are a Sr, a 5th year Senior and a Junior who go 6'5", 6'6" & 6'2"?

3.Their starting QB is a Senior

4. Their starting TE is a Senior

5. 2 Srs & a Jr on their starting OL

Yes, they are going to suck on offense this season!

You can extrapolate this type of misinformation to all the other team issues you dreamed up for the others ie boy are we lucky we get to face Kafka from NW'ern, aren't we!

 

[Nervous Gopher]

re:

btw--PSU does not lose their RB. Evan Royster will be a Sr and his back up also returns. Aside from their 3 WR's they lose 3 OL, their entire secondary, and 2 DE's.

I think it is a stretch to call Bacher one of the best NU QB's ever. They have Kafka who is a solid QB so the player they'll miss more than Bacher is Tyrell Sutton. Although they managed to play without Sutton for the last 4 or 5 games of last season.

Yet, the secondary "replacements" are 2 Srs and 2 Jrs plus they get AA LB Sean Lee back from injury. The DEs are a Jr & a So and the DTs are both Srs.

 

[grunkiejr]

Yet, the secondary "replacements" are 2 Srs and 2 Jrs plus they get AA LB Sean Lee back from injury. The DEs are a Jr & a So and the DTs are both Srs.

I wasn't knocking PSU, I was just correcting the OP. IMO PSU should have the best LB corp in the Big Ten followed by MSU, Iowa, and OSU respectively. By all accounts the DL is looking strong and is ahead of the OL. We saw last year that Larry Johnson, Sr & PSU can handle turnover on the DL with Maybin moving from backup to 1st round draft pick when given the opportunity. The DB's weren't very good last year and their replacements are likely to be the weakest part of the D this year.

While other players shined, the OL was the strength of PSU last year. They aren't going to move from #1 OL to #11 in the conference but I don't think they will be as good on the OL as 2008 when they had 3 OL on the 1st or 2nd team All Big Ten. Clark was the best QB in the conference last year and it wasn't very close. Their two-deep at RB is right up there with Michigan for the best in the conference heading in to this season. The WR's looked fine in the spring game but they don't have the same explosiveness as the 3 WR's had last season.

PSU will be fine this year but I don't see them being as good as they were in 2008. That might not matter in the record though because they get OSU & Iowa at home.

 

[Schnoodler]

i usually have higher expectations than others. This time i do not. We will be better, that i do not doubt. I do not however think that will equate to more wins, not this year. I think most people's expectations are built on some warped linear progression. But you still have to look at match up to match up, and i just don't see eight wins no matter how i look at it. We're just not deep enough or mature enough yet. I can only find six wins. We will have to defeat a favorite to do better than that.


I'll agree we can win, we won't be out classed, and we will have a chance. So something great could happen. But where are those wins going to come from? How many games do you think we will actually be the favorites in? So if we're going by what could happen, the top end of the range, i'm with you. But if we're going with likely outcomes based on the skill and depth of our team, I don't see a trip to the rose bowl this year.

My analysis of our talent base, while improving still has us no better than 6th in the B10.

So while I appreciate the optimism I can't see it.

 

[grunkiejr]

But where are those wins going to come from? How many games do you think we will actually be the favorites in?

Good question. I'm not predicting W/L's but the games I expect that we would be favored in if the line was made today.

@ Syracuse
Air Force
@ Northwestern
Wisconsin
Purdue
South Dakota State

Illinois is a wildcard so I would call that game a "pick." They have more talent at the offensive skill positions than probably anyone else in the conference but their OL sucked in 2008 and their defense wasn't much better. They lose Brit Miller & Vontae Davis from a mediocre defense.

That is 6.5 games we would be favored in. To me the only one that is really debatable on the favorite is Northwestern but that is also a team I think we have more talent than.

The 6th in the Big Ten for talent is reasonable and maybe even 7th. OSU, PSU, Mich, Ill are the top 4 even though Mich probably won't match their record to their talent and Ill didn't come close to it last season. After those it is Iowa, Michigan State and Minnesota. Wisconsin is probably #8 followed by Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana respectively.

 

[AeroGopher]

When I look at our schedule there are two games I have "circled" as the big ones in terms of how they will impact the rest of the year-- Cal and Wisconsin at home.

I think everyone expects us to beat Syracuse and Air Force. If we don't the season will be a disappointment. If we then go on to beat Cal, the bandwagons are going to get filled up with gas and start carrying members. We do that we should dispatch a tricky Northwestern team on the road. If we lose to Cal, we can still win or lose to Northwestern and get fired up for the rivalry game. If we beat Wisconsin we will likely play well on the really tough road swing at Penn State and then at Ohio State. If we lose to Wisconsin we will likely limp through the PSU, OSU games, win 2/3 at the end and maybe make a bowl.

Cal is not like a Missou or Kansas from last year. They are a VERY distant 2nd or 3rd place team in a conference that would look VERY weak without USC. Wisconsin will be a 7 win team next year (4-0, 3-5).

If we beat Cal and beat Wisconsin, we are suddenly the most dangerous team in the Big Ten because we're 5-0. If we somehow overachieve and beat OSU or PSU on the road we will definitely be favored in our remaining 3 home games. The Iowa game could come down to making it a 9 or 10 win season which would absolutely be crazy and probably won't happen.

I think our ceiling is 10 wins and the worst this team should do is 5. But I think 8 wins is the most probable prediction. (regular season) Too hard to predict a bowl win when it is so dependent on the draw/location.

 

[chi-town gopher]

I'm suprised that more people have not jumped on the bandwagon that the Gophers may be one of the contenders for the Big Ten title.


I think nobody is jumping on that bandwagon because there isn't even a driver yet, nobody is picking the gophers to do anything!!

The Gophers have a lot of talent coming back but I think most analysts (and fans) are too nervous about the instability surrounding the program, and won't go out on a limb to pick a team that hasn't contended for a Big Ten title in decades even if the talent is there. This team has a new offensive and defensive coordinator, and suffered a major collapse last year after their best offensive player went down. I wouldn't expect a lot of praise from pundits due to last year's finish, but hopefully all the returning players get it done.

I think if the Gophers can win 8 games this year, then the bandwagon might fill up for the 2010 season.

 

[GoAUpher]

Cal is not like a Missou or Kansas from last year. They are a VERY distant 2nd or 3rd place team in a conference that would look VERY weak without USC. Wisconsin will be a 7 win team next year (4-0, 3-5).

Not saying that the "experts" are right here, but I believe Cal is making its way onto multiple preseason Top 25 lists at around #20 or so. Their starting RB is supposed to be a stud.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

I looked up a stat that I've been curious about with regards to Cal.

When they've played a nonconference BCS opponent at home during the past 10 seasons they are 5-2 (.714). When they've played on the road against BCS nonconference opponents during that same period, they are 3-4 (.429).

I think that people sometimes underestimate the affect that traveling long distances has on a team and its routines.

I think we have a shot at an exciting upset in this game that could likely have an impact on our December/January destination.

Just my two cents.

 

[neut41]

I say the longer people are off the bandwagon, the better. It seems like every year at the point that people get on the bandwagon and start to believe, this team tanks. Here is that point in each of the last several years (with 2007 and 2006 being the anomolies for the wheels coming off earlier and later than usual, respectively):

2008 - Northwestern (7-1 heading into the game; attendance and excitement was picking up, then an interception return for a TD coming as the Gophers tried to go 71 yards in the final 0:26 results in a Northwestern victory)

2007 - Bowling Green (0-0; people were excited about the new coach fueled by Brewster hyperbole, and the wheels came off early with a season-starting loss)*

2006 - Texas Tech (6-6 heading into the bowl; disappointing season, starting to show hope towards the end before the final Mason meltdown in which the Gophers blow a 28-point half-time lead)

2005 - Wisconsin (5-1 heading into the game; just coming off a big victory over Michigan for the first time in several years, the Gophers blow a 10-point lead in the final 3:30 to lose after a bad punt snap and TD recovery in the endzone)

2004 - Michigan (5-0 heading into the game; the Gophers lose to Michigan in heartbreaking fashion again after leading 24-17 in the fourth quarter)

2003 - Michigan (6-0 heading into the game; people were jumping on the bandwagon big-time before this game, then the Gophers blow a 28-7 lead going into the fourth quarter and the season swoon begins)

2002 - Ohio State (7-1 heading into the game against the 2nd ranked OSU and thinking they can hang; Gophers take the early lead, then are thoroughly dominated and end up losing out the regular season)

I know I don't post much, but I am definitely a Gopher fan. As hard as it was to write the recap above, it was harder to witness those games. The general feeling that I have from the past several years is that as soon as the city and non-diehards started to believe in the Gophers, the wheels on the bandwagon fall off. With that in mind, I hope the bandwagon takes longer to fill up this year. Maybe by that time, unlike in previous years, this team will have enough momentum to stop the swoon bug.

 

[grunkiejr]

Cal is not like a Missou or Kansas from last year. They are a VERY distant 2nd or 3rd place team in a conference that would look VERY weak without USC. Wisconsin will be a 7 win team next year (4-0, 3-5).

Your statement would be accurate in a normal year but I don't think it is an accurate representation of the Pac 10 next year. USC has to replace 8 starters on defense and their QB. USC is the most vulnerable in 2009 that they have been in years.

The two prime competitors are Oregon & Cal. Cal returns the leading rusher in the Pac 10, Jr. Jahvid Best. Best is considered one of the top RB prospects in the country. They return 3 starting OL (lose All America C & 1st Rd pick Mack) and Cal has always had a strong OL under Tedford. They return a QB that platooned last year but they were a QB away from being a BCS caliber team last year. On defense they lose a couple LB's but they return their entire secondary and most if not all of their DL.

 

[Governor Sibley]

I hope we beat Air Force.

 

[gold04]

I don't know why people think we are going to be so much better in 2010. After this year we lose 15 players on defense who were starters or reserves (that number includes Brock). I think that's too big of a lose to overcome on defense. I don't think Cosgrove has proven himself as a miracle worker either. I think we'll be fine this year on defense but after that I have my doubts.

 

[dpodoll68]

with regards to Cal - When they've played a nonconference BCS opponent at home during the past 10 seasons they are 5-2 (.714). When they've played on the road against BCS nonconference opponents during that same period, they are 3-4 (.429).

This is a meaningless stat. You mean a team actually plays better at home than on the road? Perish the thought! Cal will be at least a 7-8 point favorite in that game, and they should be. I'm not saying we can't beat them, but we will be a well-deserved underdog coming in.

USC has to replace 8 starters on defense and their QB. USC is the most vulnerable in 2009 that they have been in years.

So what? Going into last season, they had to replace 10 (!!) players drafted into the NFL, including 7 in the first two rounds. All they did was go 12-1, and come thisclose to a shot at another national title. They've won at least 11 games every year since 2002, and they will do so again, while almost certainly winning their 8th straight conference title this year. Oh yeah, they had to replace their QB last year too...how did that go? The day USC stops signing a half-dozen 5 stars every year is the day they won't finish top 5 every year.

I don't think Cosgrove has proven himself as a miracle worker either.

This is the understatement of the month. The defense will be better this year, in spite of Cosgrove. The determinant for next year will be how much of an opportunity our underclassmen receive to develop this year, on both sides of the ball. The biggest difference between the transition into next year and replacing talent in previous years is that we have more capable talent coming back, probably more than we've had in decades, as grunkie has shown in the depth charts above. Sure, it will hurt to lose Decker, but we have a half-dozen capable WRs coming back in '10. Losing Traye will hurt, but we have Carter right behind him. I think the biggest thing to take from grunkie's depth chart is that it doesn't even account for another 18-20 recruits in the '10 class, and another 23-25 from the '11 class. Man, I get excited just thinking about it. It's a good time to be a Gopher!

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

This is a meaningless stat. You mean a team actually plays better at home than on the road? Perish the thought! Cal will be at least a 7-8 point favorite in that game, and they should be. I'm not saying we can't beat them, but we will be a well-deserved underdog coming in.

I disagree, I think it is a very meaningful stat. When any team has to travel across a couple of time zones or go through an arduous journey, that has more of an impact.

I think that Cal playing on the road in the Central or Eastern time zone is much different than them playing on the road in the Pacific or Mountain time zone.

Look at Fresno State, during the past 10 seasons, they have won over 82% of their home nonconference games but only 36% of their road nonconference games. The home field advantage (in my opinion) increases as the travel time for the opponent increases.

I'm not saying that this will be the determining factor when we play Cal, I just think the home field will be more advantagious versus Cal than it will be against Illinois, Purdue, etc.

 

[Bayfieldgopher]

Its time for Brewster's highly touted recruits to show their stuff. How many will be good enough and ready to take over significant PT? Right now its too early to call to see who will emerge.

I always like to see a newcomer earn a starting role. Carufel and possibly Royston are two examples. They have BT experience. But Wills has to prove he is BT game ready. Same with Stommes. But Davis has them as the front runners at this point so they must be the best we have and I hope that is good enough for us to put a better OL on the field in 09. This is critical. This unit is untested and basically an unknown quality. Predicting 10 wins with this huge remaining ??? is a bit of a stretch but in gold04 mind that is not an issue.

Talent is a good thing but the top guns need to prove they are game ready and able to handle BT competition. The 08 OL was a good example of that.

IMO, the only position that isn't in need of an upgrade over 08 is WR with Decker. There is ample room for improvement and performance in all other positions. Lawrence is probably not far behind and he should be ready to have a stellar year.

The masses have vivid and real memories of the thrashing we took from Iowa and also at the hands of KU. Not a very impressive way to end a year.

 

[MUG IN MN]

7 home games
5 road games

At Syracuse and Northwestern = 2 wins
Home - Airforce, Wisconsin, Purdue, South Dakota state = 4 wins

Skuz a win against Illinois and possibly Iowa

Total 8 wins

I just hope all games are competetive, we can't lose like we did to Michigan and Iowa