These three teams have pretty comparable schedules to start out the year, and the teams take up the 3, 4, and 5 spots of the BT conference rankings.
Illinois has started the conference playing games against four top 25 ranked opponents (if you include when MSU was ranked) - OSU, MSU, and Wisco at home and @Wisco. They were able to pull off two wins at home against MSU and Wisco, and lost away at Wisco and at home against OSU. A tough loss to Penn St. away has also indicated some weakness in the team's ability to get boards on the road and control the ball. All-in-all, Illinois is off to a 4-3 start in BT play with games against Indiana, Penn State, and Northwestern coming up.
On the other hand, the Gophers are off to a 5-3 conference start with all their losses coming on the road to top 25 opponents (again, including then-ranked MSU) - @MSU, @OSU, @Wisco. They earned their first top-25 big ten win when they beat Purdue at home. But they have lost 2 team members, in a knee injury to Mo Walker and a foot injury to Al Nolen. That being said, the Gophers showed poise and an ability to bring the ball inside and finish against the Wildcats, while stepping up their perimeter D by switching to a 2-3 zone against the Wildcats and holding them to 30% 3-point shooting (something the Gophers struggled with in non-conference and some conference play).
Wisco is also off to a similar start in the Big Ten with a 5-2 record, with their 2 losses in away games to top-25 ranked BT teams (MSU and Ill.). They have two top-25 BT wins, beating Illinois and MN at home.
What do people think about this situation? As most of us predicted at pre-season, the 3-5 spots would be up-for-grabs by these three teams, but with Purdue showing some weakness and Penn St. vying for a spot, you have to assume that these spots aren't a sure thing, and even that these three teams aren't going to necessarily end up in the 3-5 spots. But, astonishingly, each of these three teams has performed at a very comparable level (losing tough away games, but also winning some tough homes games).
Wisconsin has the toughest remaining schedule - playing both OSU and Purdue at home and away.
Illinois has the second toughest schedule, with 3 away games against Purdue, MSU, and OSU.
But the Gophers aren't in the clear. Injuries have forced new lineup - with the current starting rotation (likely will change on a game-game basis) being Hoff, Williams, Mbakwe, RSIII, and Colt. And the once deep bench will now likely rely on freshman for over 20% of the playing time.
When all is said and done, where do you think the three teams will end up in the rankings? A lot of us thought Minnesota would end up 3-4...has that changed? I personally see us with the potential of ending up in the 3 spot, but a lot of that is going to depend on the outcomes of the Wisco matchups and how well the Gophers can compensate without Nolen against the better teams of the BT. We got a glimpse of our ability on Tuesday without Nolen and Walker.
It's gonna play out like this (I think):
1. OSU
2. Purdue
3. Minn.
4. Wisconsin
5. Illinois
6. MSU
7. Penn State
And the other 4 teams...who knows? Probably Northwestern, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa in that order...but to be honest, between Michigan Indiana, and Iowa it's just as much of a toss-up as the Illinois, Wisco, Minnesota dance.
Illinois has started the conference playing games against four top 25 ranked opponents (if you include when MSU was ranked) - OSU, MSU, and Wisco at home and @Wisco. They were able to pull off two wins at home against MSU and Wisco, and lost away at Wisco and at home against OSU. A tough loss to Penn St. away has also indicated some weakness in the team's ability to get boards on the road and control the ball. All-in-all, Illinois is off to a 4-3 start in BT play with games against Indiana, Penn State, and Northwestern coming up.
On the other hand, the Gophers are off to a 5-3 conference start with all their losses coming on the road to top 25 opponents (again, including then-ranked MSU) - @MSU, @OSU, @Wisco. They earned their first top-25 big ten win when they beat Purdue at home. But they have lost 2 team members, in a knee injury to Mo Walker and a foot injury to Al Nolen. That being said, the Gophers showed poise and an ability to bring the ball inside and finish against the Wildcats, while stepping up their perimeter D by switching to a 2-3 zone against the Wildcats and holding them to 30% 3-point shooting (something the Gophers struggled with in non-conference and some conference play).
Wisco is also off to a similar start in the Big Ten with a 5-2 record, with their 2 losses in away games to top-25 ranked BT teams (MSU and Ill.). They have two top-25 BT wins, beating Illinois and MN at home.
What do people think about this situation? As most of us predicted at pre-season, the 3-5 spots would be up-for-grabs by these three teams, but with Purdue showing some weakness and Penn St. vying for a spot, you have to assume that these spots aren't a sure thing, and even that these three teams aren't going to necessarily end up in the 3-5 spots. But, astonishingly, each of these three teams has performed at a very comparable level (losing tough away games, but also winning some tough homes games).
Wisconsin has the toughest remaining schedule - playing both OSU and Purdue at home and away.
Illinois has the second toughest schedule, with 3 away games against Purdue, MSU, and OSU.
But the Gophers aren't in the clear. Injuries have forced new lineup - with the current starting rotation (likely will change on a game-game basis) being Hoff, Williams, Mbakwe, RSIII, and Colt. And the once deep bench will now likely rely on freshman for over 20% of the playing time.
When all is said and done, where do you think the three teams will end up in the rankings? A lot of us thought Minnesota would end up 3-4...has that changed? I personally see us with the potential of ending up in the 3 spot, but a lot of that is going to depend on the outcomes of the Wisco matchups and how well the Gophers can compensate without Nolen against the better teams of the BT. We got a glimpse of our ability on Tuesday without Nolen and Walker.
It's gonna play out like this (I think):
1. OSU
2. Purdue
3. Minn.
4. Wisconsin
5. Illinois
6. MSU
7. Penn State
And the other 4 teams...who knows? Probably Northwestern, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa in that order...but to be honest, between Michigan Indiana, and Iowa it's just as much of a toss-up as the Illinois, Wisco, Minnesota dance.
