If you're a believer in RPI numbers. ...

SelectionSunday

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serving as a guide for determining who reaches the Final Four, before you fill out your brackets digest these tidbits (all RPI numbers are since the 1999-2000 season):

(1) The last two national champions (North Carolina & Duke) finished the season with a #3 RPI ranking, as well as the 2002 champion (Maryland). That means San Diego State (#3) should be your pick to win it all.

Others that should be on your short list? How about #1 (Kansas), #5 (BYU), #6 (North Carolina), #9 (Notre Dame), #13 (Georgetown) and #15 (Utah State).

(2) If you're looking for the runner-up, your best bets are #1 (Kansas) or #6 (North Carolina); the #1 and #6 RPI teams have finished second fiddle twice each in the last 11 seasons. Other possibilities? Go with #2 (Ohio State), #8 (Florida), #10 (Pitt), #12 (Purdue), #18 (Syracuse) or #20 (Old Dominion).

(3) The best bet to reach the Final Four but not reach the championship game is #4 (Duke). In the last 11 seasons the #4 RPI team has reached the Final Four on three occasions but has yet to appear in the title game. The fourth and final team is most likely to be #13 (Georgetown); #13 has reached the Final Four twice without advancing past the semifinals.

A wide-ranging list of other Final Four candidates? Let's go with #16 (Wisconsin), #21 (West Virginia), #22 (Xavier), #26 (St. John's), #28 (Memphis), #32 (Washington) and #41 (Richmond).

So crunching all the numbers and trying to piece this puzzle together, the RPI tells me the Final Four this year will be:

By Bracket
#1 Kansas (Southwest) -- Runner-Up
#2 Ohio State (East)
#3 San Diego State (West) -- National Champion
#8 Florida (Southeast)

Recent RPI History Says Some of These 5 (Regardless of Region) Are Best Bets on the Road to Houston
#1 Kansas (Southwest)
#3 San Diego State (West)
#4 Duke (West)
#6 North Carolina (East)
#13 Georgetown (Southwest).

That's what the RPI numbers say, but my gut says Ohio State over Florida in the title game, with Texas and Purdue (will stick with 'em despite loss of Barlow) the other participants.
 




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