If there was a line vs NH what would it be?

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Moses87

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It looks like New Hampshire is a quality opponent (at least for Div 1AA standards...) I know the oddsmakers don't post odds on games featuring these kinda matchups....I'm actually curious to know what we think the line would be?

I'd guess Minnesota by 10 to 12, but perhaps that's low...
 

I think Minnesota -8.5 to -9.5 would be reasonable.
 

Actually some of the larger sportsbooks in Vegas had lines for these matchups last week. I specifically remember seeing WI v. NIU.
 

Tim Riggins said:
Actually some of the larger sportsbooks in Vegas had lines for these matchups last week. I specifically remember seeing WI v. NIU.
Click to expand...

If it is not listed on scoresandodds.com we don't use it here on GopherHole Pick Per Day.
 

If the Gophers were -9 at UNLV, that would make them -15 vs UNLV at home. Add another touchdown for being a lower division team, I would imagine it would be -22 or more at home vs UNH.
 


I think the line would be 'Our Hampshire is newer than your Hampshire'.:cool:
 


-22 would seem outlandish to me and I hope you're not disappointed if we don't win by that much. I think the oddsmakers would peg UNLV and UNH to be roughly the same caliber, if not tilted in UNH's favor. Maybe could see it as much as -15. But, that's why we play the game. Maybe I just don't want to get my hopes up too much :)
 




Moses87 said:
It looks like New Hampshire is a quality opponent (at least for Div 1AA standards...) I know the oddsmakers don't post odds on games featuring these kinda matchups....I'm actually curious to know what we think the line would be?

I'd guess Minnesota by 10 to 12, but perhaps that's low...
Click to expand...

Going by Sagarin's ratings, I'd say about 5 or 6.
 

If it was 5 or 6 and up on the board, I think there would be a record number of bets on the Gophers. Sagarin needs more data to become effective.

Best question is this: at what point would you wager on UNH? For me, if I was given +17.5 is where I'd roll with the 'cats.
 


FBT:

Models

Prediction: Minnesota wins by 5.
Final Score: Minnesota 29, UNH 24.
Gopher Win Probability: 67%.
Current Vegas Line: OFF/Unavailable

Whhaaaaaa? How is it possible that the Gophers, at home, are favored by less than they were against UNLV according to the model? DOESN'T YOUR STUPID MODEL KNOW THAT WE'RE A B1G TEAM AND THEY'RE FCS?!?!?

Simmer down. Sagarin's Predictor Ratings are based purely off margin of victory versus expected margin of victory; whereas Minnesota struggled to beat UNLV and was below the predicted margin of victory, New Hampshire walloped Holy Cross by a better than expected margin. Also, Sagarin rates New Hampshire higher than UNLV (64.29 vs. 56.73). At this point of the season, Sagarin's ratings are likely still largely determined by preseason projections in the absence of enough actual results. Given that, New Hampshire still rates very high in Sagarin's computers. Rats.

Anyway, the win probability is still 2/3, so it's not as if this is a toss-up game against an FCS team unlike the NDSU game was last season according to Sagarin. All of this follows the meme set by Kill during the press conference that the Gophers had better be prepared and take no opponent for granted, since this will be UNH's bowl game.
 



I mentioned this in another thread - but the line would be close to Gophers 7-8 point favorites according to Sagarin. Here are some other Big Ten games.....

Central Florida at Ohio St.
Vegas: OSU -18
Sagarin OSU -15.96
Difference: 2.04

Central Michigan at Mich St.
Vegas: MSU -20.5
Sagarin: MSU -25.78
Difference: 5.28

Iowa St. at Iowa
Vegas: Iowa -5
Sagarin: Iowa -8.96
Difference: 4.96

Nebraska at UCLA
Vegas: Nebraska -5.5
Sagarin: Nebraska -7.34
Difference: 1.86

Purdue at Notre Dame
Vegas: Notre Dame -14
Sagarin: Notre Dame -15.21
Difference: 1.21

Wisconsin at Oregon St.
Vegas: Wisconsin -7
Sagarin: Wisconsin -4.52
Difference: 2.48

Vandebilt at Northwestern
Vegas: Vandy -3.5
Sagarin: NW -3.41
Difference: 6.91


Sagarin would have the Gophers -5 so maybe add 2-3 points to make it -7.5 or so.
 



I'll go with the Gophers at -70.5, same as FSU vs. Savannah State for the co-first ever 70 point spread.
 


If you're going to schedule an FCS opponent, you might as well schedule Savannah State. You get no more credit for playing a top FCS opponent than a bottom FCS opponent.
 

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