If MN had a year where they made the CFP as a one loss team, would it look like this?

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Dano564

Dano564

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This isn't a predicitive thread, it's a question of a path should we go 3-1 in our final four.

Essentially to make the CFP as a 1 loss team, you have to beat some really good teams and be one of few teams that are a 1 loss team.
If we were to make it with one loss along the way, we would need to obviously win a BTT game over an unbeaten Ohio State, and possibly do it in a sound fashion.

In recent history, a one loss team has had both good losses and bad losses. OSU seemed to have been penalized for losing at Iowa in a bad fashion but Clemson lost to Pitt and Syracuse in different years and it was not bad enough for them to make the CFP. Alabama's losses have always appeared to be "quality losses" of course.

So we all prefer to go unbeaten, but in what scenario could we lose one and still make it?
Is it rainy game loss to a weird Northwestern team, or is it losing to a Penn St?

My thought is beating a Penn St is needed to get us in that top 8 conversation. Then a possible Iowa / WI loss could still be overcome (if close) if we advance to the BTT and then beat an OSU team.
 

Hypothetically, I think losing to Penn State and beating Ohio State could possibly do it. That would be an excellent loss followed by 2 good wins and a marquee win.

Let’s say the SEC gets 2 teams. Clemson gets in. The 4th spot either goes to Notre Dame, the Big 12 champ, or the Big 10 champ.

Notre Dame is getting rolled by Michigan. Done.
Oklahoma has a pretty bad loss.
I’d give it to the Big 10 champ.
 

Win them all. I don't think we make it with a loss unless we get a lot of help.
 

I think a one loss LSU team would get the nod just based off reputation. I’d like to say yes though. We’d have to beat penn state for sure. A loss to Wisconsin or Iowa, whoever is ranked higher at the time, wouldn’t be the end of the world.
 

Flash30 said:
I think a one loss LSU team would get the nod just based off reputation. I’d like to say yes though. We’d have to beat penn state for sure. A loss to Wisconsin or Iowa, whoever is ranked higher at the time, wouldn’t be the end of the world.
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Alabama, LSU, Clemson. Would you give the nod to 1 loss Oklahoma? Let’s assume Oregon doesn’t run the table.
 


Won't matter. We're gonna win out.

There won't be any room for haters to exclude us.
 

mnsportsgeek said:
Alabama, LSU, Clemson. Would you give the nod to 1 loss Oklahoma? Let’s assume Oregon doesn’t run the table.
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I think Oklahoma is a bit overrated. They always seem to lose a game they shouldn’t lose these past few years. I think mn being the big ten champ would get the nod over Oklahoma. You’re right about a one loss Alabama I’m not sold on a one loss Clemson.
 

I guess the question is assume:

Clemson
SEC Champ

Then the next spot goes to any SEC team with only one loss.

Then the fourth spot would got to Big Ten or Big 12 or Pac 12, or Notre Dame if Michigan pisses away their game tonight.

A one loss Oregon, or OK would all get picked over a 1 loss MN I assume just on name.
 

The Gophers couldn't suffer a loss and still make it to the playoffs. There are eight teams with one loss and one with two (Texas) currently ahead of the Gophers in the AP poll. Because of that....they'd be down the pecking order for one loss teams.
 



Beating Ohio State is probably not in our near future. Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin will be formidable - even one victory would be huge. Northwestern, regardless of its record, is always tough at home, especially in November. The Gophers have their work cut out for them. Penn State will be a very big test, followed as it is by Iowa on the road - two very rough weekends. Northwestern and Wisconsin would seem to be the best shots we have, neither easy. Hopefully, Iowa will pick up a third loss somewhere along the way, possibly at Nebraska.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Beating Ohio State is probably not in our near future. Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin will be formidable - even one victory would be huge. Northwestern, regardless of its record, is always tough at home, especially in November. The Gophers have their work cut out for them. Penn State will be a very big test, followed as it is by Iowa on the road - two very rough weekends. Northwestern and Wisconsin would seem to be the best shots we have, neither easy. Hopefully, Iowa will pick up a third loss somewhere along the way, possibly at Nebraska.
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I'm hoping that they beat Wisconsin on the 9th. Then when we play them on the 16th....it will basically be for us to seal up the West. Regardless of the outcome of the PSU or Wisconsin game....we'd just need to take care of business against NW. Iowa and Wisconsin would both have three Big Ten losses at that point.
 

Face The Facts said:
This isn't a predicitive thread, it's a question of a path should we go 3-1 in our final four.

Essentially to make the CFP as a 1 loss team, you have to beat some really good teams and be one of few teams that are a 1 loss team.
If we were to make it with one loss along the way, we would need to obviously win a BTT game over an unbeaten Ohio State, and possibly do it in a sound fashion.

In recent history, a one loss team has had both good losses and bad losses. OSU seemed to have been penalized for losing at Iowa in a bad fashion but Clemson lost to Pitt and Syracuse in different years and it was not bad enough for them to make the CFP. Alabama's losses have always appeared to be "quality losses" of course.

So we all prefer to go unbeaten, but in what scenario could we lose one and still make it?
Is it rainy game loss to a weird Northwestern team, or is it losing to a Penn St?

My thought is beating a Penn St is needed to get us in that top 8 conversation. Then a possible Iowa / WI loss could still be overcome (if close) if we advance to the BTT and then beat an OSU team.
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The teams you are talking about were all top 5 teams throughout the year. We're not. So the minute we lose to anyone, we'll drop like 8 spots in the rankings. And without losses by 12 teams ahead of us the rest of the way, we won't be even close to ranked high enough. The only way we could make it is being undefeated. And if we beat Penn St and Ohio St, we'd deserve it. I'm not sure anyone in America is beating Ohio St this year, but you never know...
 

Gophers winning the West at 11-1 isn't ridiculously improbable. But beating OSU in the title game?? That does seem very unlikely.

IF they were to beat OSU, at 12-1, they'd deserve a berth as much as any one-loss team because OSU is that good. Would they be chosen? I don't think so because they'd be the new kids on the block without the winning traditions of Alabama, Clemson, LSU and Oklahoma.
 



I would much rather the Gophers play in the Rose Bowl than the CFP. That seems much more realistic as well.


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This is a silly concept, but fine:

the correct answer is that if we beat Penn St and Wisconsin at home, take care of NW on the road in similar fashion to Nebraska/Rutgers/Maryland, but lose a tough, rivalry, trophy game on the road to Iowa, then beat Ohio State in Indy, yes I think we could be in consideration for the CFP.

Thing is, we might be something like top 8 at that point, with Ohio St maybe #2 or #3. You have to wonder if, depending on the game result, if they'd just put Ohio St in the top 4 anyway, and put us at like #5 or #6.
 

Well, as long as we are dreaming, here is how I see it could pan out, but we will obviously need help from others. That being said, let’s make the following assumptions.
1) Notre Dame is out, obviously after last night
2) The Big XII -2-2+2 is out as their two marquee programs have bad losses.
3 The PAC is out, they arn’t good and once again they will cannibalize themselves.

No big stretches with the above. Now what is left?
1) Clemson
2) OhSt
3) 2 SEC teams.

Unless Clemson loses 2 (against Wake and SC?), the reigning champ will not be excluded from the playoff. Let’s keep them in.

OhSt, even with one loss, The Buckeyes are in. They are just playing to well. Let’s assume that Michigan doesn’t pull the upset and OhSt is undefeated or loses to the Gophers (again dreams). Let’s keep the Buckeyes in.

Now what do we do with the SEC? I feel reasonably confident that the SEC West winner will win the SEC Championship and remove all SEC East teams from claim to the playoff spot (especially since they all already have 1 loss).

Now what do we do with the SEC West? The Bama vs LSU game will decide the SEC West, the SEC, and the 3rd playoff spot (this is why GameDay won’t be In Minneapolis). What about the loser? Let’s say LSU loses and Bama goes undefeated. The only way LSU doesn’t get the 4th spot is if they have a second loss. Only one team on their schedule as even a remote chance, Texas A&M. The Aggies beat LSU last year in 7 OTs. That’s what the Gophers must hope for to keep that 4th spot open.

The Gophers would get that 4th spot if the win out right, but they could also argue for it with only 1 loss to either Penn St or OhSt.

That’s how I see it working in dream land.
 

Spoofin said:
I would much rather the Gophers play in the Rose Bowl than the CFP. That seems much more realistic as well.


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Bizarre take. I agree it’s more likely though. I think it’s possible to make the CFP with one loss. So much depends on how other teams fare.
 

btowngopher said:
Bizarre take. I agree it’s more likely though. I think it’s possible to make the CFP with one loss. So much depends on how other teams fare.
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I don’t think it is that bizarre. I have been a Gopher fan for basically 4 decades. Most of my fandom consisted of the Rose Bowl being the top of the mountain. They haven’t been there in my lifetime. I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had with friends planning out the trip to Pasadena if it ever happens. All my Gopher fantasies end with us in the Rose Bowl. I would be more excited for that than the CFP and I’d be willing to bet I’m not alone - maybe not even in the minority.


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Spoofin said:
I don’t think it is that bizarre. I have been a Gopher fan for basically 4 decades. Most of my fandom consisted of the Rose Bowl being the top of the mountain. They haven’t been there in my lifetime. I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had with friends planning out the trip to Pasadena if it ever happens. All my Gopher fantasies end with us in the Rose Bowl. I would be more excited for that than the CFP and I’d be willing to bet I’m not alone - maybe not even in the minority.


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I’d rather take my shot at the top of mountain than be less successful just to say we got to the spot that used to be the top of the mountain.
 


Spoofin said:
I don’t think it is that bizarre. I have been a Gopher fan for basically 4 decades. Most of my fandom consisted of the Rose Bowl being the top of the mountain. They haven’t been there in my lifetime. I can’t tell you how many conversations I have had with friends planning out the trip to Pasadena if it ever happens. All my Gopher fantasies end with us in the Rose Bowl. I would be more excited for that than the CFP and I’d be willing to bet I’m not alone - maybe not even in the minority.
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I agree the Rose Bowl would be really cool. But it would be hard to turn down potentially playing for the national championship.
 

dpodoll68 said:
You'd much rather the Gophers be worse? That's really stupid.
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dpo chimes in with one of his two posts per month, with a really stupid take here.

Wanting the Rose Bowl has literally nothing to do with wanting the Gophers to “be worse”.
 

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