I Thought 10-2 Or 11-1

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Friend Of Tubby

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Instead it can only be 9-3.

Gophers need 11 or 12 W in Big 10 then 1 or 2 more W in Big 10 tourney.

That would be (about) 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday.
 

lucky

Friend Of Tubby said:
Instead it can only be 9-3.

Gophers need 11 or 12 W in Big 10 then 1 or 2 more W in Big 10 tourney.

That would be (about) 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday.
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Lucky for the Gophers they have 8 games against Penn State, NW, Iowa, and Indiana. But those games looked easier a couple weeks ago than they do now.

We only have Bucky Badger at the barn this year so that is also a good thing.
 

11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten means that you finished at least second in the league. Last year, 11-7 tied for second.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Instead it can only be 9-3.

Gophers need 11 or 12 W in Big 10 then 1 or 2 more W in Big 10 tourney.

That would be (about) 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday.
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I don't think they need to be quite that good. If they win 11 or 12 in the BT regular season, they will be a lock for the NCAA. Has there ever been a Big Ten team that has won 11 or more regular season conference games and missed the NCAA? I don't think so. 11 or 12 BT regular season wins puts the Gophers at 20 or 21 regular season wins, will mean a couple of quality wins in the BT season, will likely have them in the top 3-4 in the league, will likely have them in the top 35 RPI, and will have them headed to Indy with an NCAA bid locked up. They will not need any BTT wins if they win 11 or 12 in the reg season. No question about it.

The bigger issue is if they (as I think they will) get to 8, 9 or 10 BT regular season wins. Then, they will need a win or two in the BTT.
 



Agree with TJ on this one. ...

Despite little accomplished in pre-Big 10 (and assuming no bad losses in the final 5 NC games) , 11-7 will be more than enough, no matter what happens in BTT. With that many wins assuredly the Gophers will have added 3-4 quality W's to their resume. It also would likely mean they won't be playing on the first day in Indy. ... that's important.

10-8 is likely squarely on the bubble (would strongly suggest winning at least 1 game in Indy);

9-9 or 8-10 (BTT title or bust).

Fun to specualate, but as always, lot of things (good or bad) can happen before that point. I'm certainly having a tough time envisioning the Gophers (as currently constructed) getting to 10 conference wins at this point, but that's why we play the games and don't cancel the season after hitting a few bumps in the road.
 

I tend to agree. I think people are taking the simple line that, we went 12-0 and 9-9 last year, so we if we're 9-3 NC, we now need 12 wins in the Big 10. It's not quite that simple. We basically replaced Louisville, Bowling Green, Georgia State and UVa with Butler, Portland, Texas A&M and Miami. Yes, we went 4-0 last year and 1-3 this year, but there's no doubt that's a much tougher 4 game stretch.

Certainly 9-9 will not get it done this year, but 10-8 might depending on what place we are in, and 11-7 certainly will (all presuming no further NC losses). The reality (SS may confirm or dispute this) is that teams from the Big 6 with winning conference records are rarely left out of the Dance. That is unless thier non-conference was a complete disaster (our's isn't that yet) or the Conference is having an absolutely terrible season (think SEC last year or Pac 10 this year). For the longest time no Big 10 team that even finished .500 in the conference was ever left out. The Gophers broke that streak in 1996 in what of the biggest snubbings in my memory.
 

If 5 baskets spread over 3 games go in instead of out, we are undefeated right now. People have over-reacted to the 3 losses. The Gophers are fine -- with or without the suspended players. Trust in Tubby ... we are going to do very well in the Big Ten conference season.
 

MillionMoves said:
If 5 baskets spread over 3 games go in instead of out, we are undefeated right now. People have over-reacted to the 3 losses. The Gophers are fine -- with or without the suspended players. Trust in Tubby ... we are going to do very well in the Big Ten conference season.
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...and if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle.

A lot of other teams could say this as well.
 



MillionMoves said:
If 5 baskets spread over 3 games go in instead of out, we are undefeated right now. People have over-reacted to the 3 losses. The Gophers are fine -- with or without the suspended players. Trust in Tubby ... we are going to do very well in the Big Ten conference season.
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So by your logic, it's only bad luck and things will even out by the end of season. I might by this if it were craps, but I'm sorry, good teams find ways to win. Right now, this is not a good team and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
 


tjgopher said:
I don't think they need to be quite that good. If they win 11 or 12 in the BT regular season, they will be a lock for the NCAA. Has there ever been a Big Ten team that has won 11 or more regular season conference games and missed the NCAA? I don't think so. 11 or 12 BT regular season wins puts the Gophers at 20 or 21 regular season wins, will mean a couple of quality wins in the BT season, will likely have them in the top 3-4 in the league, will likely have them in the top 35 RPI, and will have them headed to Indy with an NCAA bid locked up. They will not need any BTT wins if they win 11 or 12 in the reg season. No question about it.

The bigger issue is if they (as I think they will) get to 8, 9 or 10 BT regular season wins. Then, they will need a win or two in the BTT.
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I think Gophers need 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday to get NCAA bid (absent winning B10T).

Gophers had 20 W on SS in 2008 and missed NCAA. But 22 W in 2009 got one of last few NCAA at-large bids.

22 or 23 W will be needed in 2010 also.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
I think Gophers need 22 or 23 W on Selection Sunday to get NCAA bid (absent winning B10T).

Gophers had 20 W on SS in 2008 and missed NCAA. But 22 W in 2009 got one of last few NCAA at-large bids.

22 or 23 W will be needed in 2010 also.
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Huh? The Gophers had 18 regular season wins in 2008 and an 8-10 record in the Big Ten. They won twice in the BTT to get to 20 total wins. That is TOTALLY DIFFERENT than 20 regular season wins with an 11-7 or 12-6 Big Ten record.

Do you really think the Gophers could go 12-6 in the Big Ten, lose on Friday in the BTT and get left out of the NCAA. No chance that happens. There's never been a Big Ten team with 11 regular season Big Ten wins get left out, let alone a 21-win team with 12.

Wisconsin got in last year with 18 regular season wins and 10 Big Ten wins. Heck, just last year, the Gophers had 9 regular season conference wins and got IN. And, you're trying to say 11 or 12 wouldn't lock them up this year? C'mon.
 



tjgopher said:
Huh? The Gophers had 18 regular season wins in 2008 and an 8-10 record in the Big Ten. They won twice in the BTT to get to 20 total wins. That is TOTALLY DIFFERENT than 20 regular season wins with an 11-7 or 12-6 Big Ten record.

Do you really think the Gophers could go 12-6 in the Big Ten, lose on Friday in the BTT and get left out of the NCAA. No chance that happens. There's never been a Big Ten team with 11 regular season Big Ten wins get left out, let alone a 21-win team with 12.

Wisconsin got in last year with 18 regular season wins and 10 Big Ten wins. Heck, just last year, the Gophers had 9 regular season conference wins and got IN. And, you're trying to say 11 or 12 wouldn't lock them up this year? C'mon.
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I'll try again. Please read it slowly.

I said Gophers need 22 or 23 W on SELECTION SUNDAY (after season and B10T are done).

Gophers had 20 W on SS in 2008. They went to NIT.

Gophers had 22 W on SS in 2009. They went to NCAA.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
I'll try again. Please read it slowly.

I said Gophers need 22 or 23 W on SELECTION SUNDAY (after season and B10T are done).

Gophers had 20 W on SS in 2008. They went to NIT.

Gophers had 22 W on SS in 2009. They went to NCAA.
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FOT, in this case you're the one who needs to read slowly. You are implying that if we went 11-7 and are say the 4 seed in the BTT and lost in the quarterfinals that we wouldn't make it, because we'd only have 20 wins. TJ is right, that is very unlikely. And if we we go 12-6 and lose in the quarterfinals, I guarantee we are in. So no we DON'T necessarily need 22 or 23 wins on Selection Sunday.
 

howeda7 said:
FOT, in this case you're the one who needs to read slowly. You are implying that if we went 11-7 and are say the 4 seed in the BTT and lost in the quarterfinals that we wouldn't make it, because we'd only have 20 wins. TJ is right, that is very unlikely. And if we we go 12-6 and lose in the quarterfinals, I guarantee we are in. So no we DON'T necessarily need 22 or 23 wins on Selection Sunday.
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Yes, I'm saying the Gophers need 22 or 23 W on SS to get NCAA bid in 2010.

Kansas St (for example) had numbers like U mentioned (in Big 12) in 2008 but got NIT instead.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Kansas St (for example) had numbers like U mentioned (in Big 12) in 2008 but got NIT instead.
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WTF are you talking about? KSU made the 2008 NCAA tournament by going 10-6 in the Big 12 while losing their first game in the Big 12 tourney. Again, they MADE the NCAA, which strengtens my argument, not your's. Not only that, they won a game in the NCAA tournament in 2008.

K-State made the NIT last year when they went 9-7 in the Big 12. 9-7 is much different than 11-7 or 12-6.

Basically, you might as well quit now with this argument. If a Big 12 or Big 10 team gets to 11 or 12 regular season wins, they are in regardless of what they do in their conference tourney. It is really that simple. Again, there has NEVER been a Big 10 team with 11 or more reg season wins get left out. It absolutely won't happen with a Tubby Smith-led Minnesota team.

I'll ask again - you cannot seriously think that a 20-win Gopher team that is 11-7 in the Big 10 that loses on Friday in the BTT would get left out, can you?

I cannot find a single example of a Big Ten team winning 11 games, losing on Friday and missing out. But, I found these:

2009 - Wisconsin entered BTT 10-8 BT record and 19-11 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2007 - Indiana entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 20-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2006 - Wisconsin entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2003 - Purdue entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2002 - MSU entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2001 - Wis entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2000 - Purdue entered BTT 12-4 BT record and 20-8 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA

With 11 BT wins, the Gophers would enter the BTT this year at 20-10 record. They are in the NCAA at that point regardless of what happens in Indy. That's it. Simple.

You have a decent knowledge of the game, so please quit with this line of thinking.
 

tjgopher said:
WTF are you talking about? KSU made the 2008 NCAA tournament by going 10-6 in the Big 12 while losing their first game in the Big 12 tourney. Again, they MADE the NCAA, which strengtens my argument, not your's. Not only that, they won a game in the NCAA tournament in 2008.

K-State made the NIT last year when they went 9-7 in the Big 12. 9-7 is much different than 11-7 or 12-6.

Basically, you might as well quit now with this argument. If a Big 12 or Big 10 team gets to 11 or 12 regular season wins, they are in regardless of what they do in their conference tourney. It is really that simple. Again, there has NEVER been a Big 10 team with 11 or more reg season wins get left out. It absolutely won't happen with a Tubby Smith-led Minnesota team.

I'll ask again - you cannot seriously think that a 20-win Gopher team that is 11-7 in the Big 10 that loses on Friday in the BTT would get left out, can you?

I cannot find a single example of a Big Ten team winning 11 games, losing on Friday and missing out. But, I found these:

2009 - Wisconsin entered BTT 10-8 BT record and 19-11 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2007 - Indiana entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 20-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2006 - Wisconsin entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2003 - Purdue entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2002 - MSU entered BTT 10-6 BT record and 19-10 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2001 - Wis entered BTT 9-7 BT record and 18-9 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA
2000 - Purdue entered BTT 12-4 BT record and 20-8 overall, lost on Friday, got IN NCAA

With 11 BT wins, the Gophers would enter the BTT this year at 20-10 record. They are in the NCAA at that point regardless of what happens in Indy. That's it. Simple.

You have a decent knowledge of the game, so please quit with this line of thinking.
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Wrong year, sorry. I meant 2007 but typed 2008. See www.kenpom.com for K-St in 2007. They were 10-6 in B12 play that year. 11-7 after B12T but NIT anyway.
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
Wrong year, sorry. I meant 2007 but typed 2008. See www.kenpom.com for K-St in 2007. They were 10-6 in B12 play that year. 11-7 after B12T but NIT anyway.
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K-State was 21-10 with a 10-6 conference record. Had they been 11-5 in the Big 12 regular season, they're probably in the NCAA tourney. In addition, they played the #198 toughest non-conference schedule and had bad losses to New Mexico and Colorado State. Because of that K-State's RPI was #56. That made them a weak bubble team. This year's Gopher team has a much tougher non-conference schedule and will likely have no bad non-conference losses. If they win 11 Big 10 games, they will be in the Top 25-34 in RPI. I might add that the NCAA put Texas Tech into the field that year out of the Big 12 with a 9-7 conf record and 20-11 overall record. They played a schedule much more like what Minnesota is playing this year.

Trust me. If Tubby gets us to 11 BT regular season wins, we're in. I've followed the Big Ten long enough to know that.

To reiterate, the bigger worry is whether we can get to 11 wins. I'm guessing not. That means we will likely have work to do in the BTT.

I mean if the 2007 K-State team is your only basis for argument when faced with the rest of the evidence at hand, you may simply want to back down a bit. An 11-win Big Ten has NEVER been left out of the NCAA. And, I promise you an 11-win team this year ain't getting left out.
 

tjgopher said:
K-State was 21-10 with a 10-6 conference record. Had they been 11-5 in the Big 12 regular season, they're probably in the NCAA tourney. In addition, they played the #198 toughest non-conference schedule and had bad losses to New Mexico and Colorado State. Because of that K-State's RPI was #56. That made them a weak bubble team. This year's Gopher team has a much tougher non-conference schedule and will likely have no bad non-conference losses. If they win 11 Big 10 games, they will be in the Top 25-34 in RPI. I might add that the NCAA put Texas Tech into the field that year out of the Big 12 with a 9-7 conf record and 20-11 overall record. They played a schedule much more like what Minnesota is playing this year.

Trust me. If Tubby gets us to 11 BT regular season wins, we're in. I've followed the Big Ten long enough to know that.

To reiterate, the bigger worry is whether we can get to 11 wins. I'm guessing not. That means we will likely have work to do in the BTT.
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As I said originally, Gophers need AT LEAST 22 W on Selection Sunday in March 2010 for NCAA bid. Presuming 9-3 in OOC play, they'll need 13 W in B10 and B10T to qualify for that (22 W).
 

Friend Of Tubby said:
As I said originally, Gophers need AT LEAST 22 W on Selection Sunday in March 2010 for NCAA bid. Presuming 9-3 in OOC play, they'll need 13 W in B10 and B10T to qualify for that (22 W).
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Clearly, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

I'm telling you right now, if the Gophers go 21-9 overall with a 12-6 Big Ten record, they will get into the NCAA without winning a game in Indy. Absolute dead lock cinch. No question they will get in under this scenario (no need to get to 22). I'm almost as certain that if the Gophers go 11-7 in the Big Ten (20-10 overall) and lose on Friday of the BTT, they will get in, too. In fact, if they win the right games (i.e. a win or two or three over MSU, PU, Wis, OSU), they have a shot to get in with 10-8 record in the BT.

This idea that it is 22 wins or NIT is absurd.
 

tjgopher said:
Clearly, we'll just have to agree to disagree on this.

I'm telling you right now, if the Gophers go 21-9 overall with a 12-6 Big Ten record, they will get into the NCAA without winning a game in Indy. Absolute dead lock cinch. No question they will get in under this scenario (no need to get to 22). I'm almost as certain that if the Gophers go 11-7 in the Big Ten (20-10 overall) and lose on Friday of the BTT, they will get in, too. In fact, if they win the right games (i.e. a win or two or three over MSU, PU, Wis, OSU), they have a shot to get in with 10-8 record in the BT.

This idea that it is 22 wins or NIT is absurd.
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You're right, the only way I can see an 11-7, 20-10 team not making it is if it somehow ends up the #6 seed and loses to a horrible Iowa team in the opening round. I cannot imagine 5 teams finishing with better then 11-7 records though.
 


I'm not going to make predictions about what it would take to get in, though I tend to side with the idea that 10-8 with a BTT win or 11-7 without one should do the job. Whether it will or not depends on other people's opinions. I also think that comparing other conferences in other years, or even the Big Ten in other years might be a stretch because there are a ton of variables involved.

I do have a question though. With the relatively strong play of the conference as a whole in the non-conference schedule, what happens to the RPI of the Gophers as the conference season rolls along. One would think it should help, but does it make a big difference?
 

This is an example of why it's so important to get 2 or 3 quality wins in the nonconference portion of your schedule, even if you're in a power league like the Big 10.

Take Wisconsin, for example. With wins over Arizona and Maryland (and still the potential for Marquette) added to a signature win over the Dukies, the Badgers in my opinion have basically locked themselves into the NCAA Tournament so long as they go 9-9 in the Big 10. At this point I can't envision any scenario where the Badgers would get left out with a .500 (conference) mark. That win over Duke is enormous.

The Gophers, conversely, because they failed in 3 of their 4 quality-win opportunities (2 in Anaheim + Miami), need 11 Big 10 wins to feel secure heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Ditto for Michigan, which to this point is in even worse shape than the Gophers (no quality wins to speak of).
 

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