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[mplsbadger]

Rank the big 4 home games in terms of your desire to achieve a victory and in terms of the probability of a victory.

Desired - USC, OSU, Iowa, PSU

Most probable - PSU, Iowa, USC, OSU

Desired is basically ranked according to the pub the program would get.

Probable is because PSU is rebuilding. Iowa may be as good as USC but we get them later when the Gophers wil have had time to pull it together on offense which is why I think they are a more bearable target. Either way it is a brutal schedule! Hopefully lightning strikes.

 

[SunGopher]

Desired: USC, OSU, PSU, Iowa

Basically based on how the nation will perceive the victory. I respect Iowa and they "should" be tougher than PSU for sure but Joe Pa is a figure.

Probable: PSU, USC, Iowa, OSU

I think we have a realistic shot at beat PSU, a semi-decent shot at USC based on last year and that they seem to fall flat at least once a year (albeit usually within the Pac10), Iowa being tough on d and who knows what on offense (after the game last year numerous fans commented how they knew they were playing better than they actually were) and OSU being the toughest as (I would guess) the odds on favorite to win the Big 10 and have a shot at the national title (sounds familiar).

 

[Ski U Mah 55]

Desire: USC, Iowa, OSU, PSU
Likeliness: PSU, USC, Iowa, OSU

I don't like playing Iowa late in the year. Ferentz is too good a coach to leave wrinkles in a young or inexperienced offense. If the Iowa O is shaky in the beginning of the year, it will be straightened out enough to win by November.

 

[Firejumper]

Desire: OSU, Iowa, PSU, USC
Likeliness: PSU, Iowa, OSU, USC

I really care the least about beating USC. We need to start beating our brothers in the Big Ten first. Not sure about PSU being the easiest, depends on how their new QB plays.

 

[WAGopher]

Desire: OSU, Iowa, PSU, USC
Likeliness: Iowa, PSU, USC, OSU

Normally, I'd want to beat Iowa first, but our overall record vs OSU is terrible, and if we beat them, we are very legit. If we beat all 3 Big Ten teams, then we could very well be conference champs. USC has the talent, but with a new coach and some other issues, they may be ripe for the pickings. While Iowa may have the better team over PSU, I think we get more fired up for Iowa to get the Pig.

 

[ruralgopher]

silly questions, they all look like W's to me.


Desired- IA, OSU, PSU USC
Likeliness- IA, PSU, USC, OSU

Basically I would always want a conference win over a non conference win. Other than OSU, I think the other three are very 'beatable' meaning in my mind if we played them 100 times I'd expect to win 35-45. With OSU I'd expect to win 20.

Of course it is April, I may feel different later.

 

[magpie]

I'll break from routine and say - desired: all, probable: none. Sorry, but no signature wins is strong foreshadow, especially with a young D and sputtering O. I really, really hope to steal one or two though.

 

[AhliBobwa]

Desired: Iowa (always), USC, Ohio State, Penn State

Most Probable: Penn State, USC, Iowa, Ohio State

Penn State is replacing the most prolific QB in school history. Also, because Pat Devlin transferred the guy taking the reigns is going to be extremely young and inexperienced. At home against an inexperienced QB, I like our chances.

USC--has all the talent in the world, but will they be motivated to come to Minneapolis or will their new coach's overwhelming arrogance rub off on the Trojans and make them complacent/flat?
Also, if the NCAA bans USC from postseason play (still very much a possibility), will that affect the motivation of USC next year?
Will Lane Kiffin do/say something unbelievably stupid before the game to motivate the Gophers/distract his own team. The guy is a train wreck. He could literally do just about anything

Iowa--They are very good, but it's a rivalry game and we get them at home.

Ohio State--This team is winning the NC next year. This is the only game next year I'm pre-emptively putting in the L column.

 

[Monty519]

I'll play:

Desired: Iowa, OSU, PSU, USC

Probable: PSU, Iowa, USC, OSU

I seriously can't stand losing to Iowa. And losing to Becky this first time in our new home was bad enough, but if we follow it up with Iowa this year.....ugh. I'd like more to score a big home win against a Big Ten squad because it will have two-fold impact. A big in-conference win is a boost in conference positioning, as well as a good signiture win. A USC win is nice, and may give us a little national perspective boost, but won't help positioning-wise as much as a big conference win would.

 

[gopherrising]

Desired - Iowa, Iowa, Iowa, Iowa

Probable - Penn St, USC, Iowa, Oh St.

I can't stand losing to Iowa at home, it is painful. Wisc was painful too, but Iowa fans are always worse. Luckily there will only be 5,000 or so instead of 25,000.

The truth is all these games are difficult, but when we win, even if it's just one of these, it will be sweet.

 

[GophBen]

Desired: USC, Iowa, tOSU, PSU
Probable: Iowa, PSU, USC, tOSU

 

[ruralgopher]

Desired - Iowa, Iowa, Iowa, Iowa

Probable - Penn St, USC, Iowa, Oh St.

I can't stand losing to Iowa at home, it is painful. Wisc was painful too, but Iowa fans are always worse. Luckily there will only be 5,000 or so instead of 25,000.

The truth is all these games are difficult, but when we win, even if it's just one of these, it will be sweet.

I hope you are right on this. Do not, however, underestimate how crummy our fan base is. If we have a bad year going into that game in could easily be ~15k IA fans.

 

[PapaHawk21]

silly questions, they all look like W's to me.



Basically I would always want a conference win over a non conference win. Other than OSU, I think the other three are very 'beatable' meaning in my mind if we played them 100 times I'd expect to win 35-45. With OSU I'd expect to win 20.

Of course it is April, I may feel different later.

How on earth do you come to this conclusion? Every team on mentioned here is clearly better coached and has more talent. Brewster has yet to win a rivalry game and has defeated one team in his tenure that finished in the top half of the big10.

 

[ruralgopher]

How on earth do you come to this conclusion? Every team on mentioned here is clearly better coached and has more talent. Brewster has yet to win a rivalry game and has defeated one team in his tenure that finished in the top half of the big10.

Did you read my post???? I said that at best we have a 45% chance of beating any of the four on the list. my first sentence had a hint of sarcasm. However I would argue that a Lane Kiffin coached team is NOT 'clearly better coached'.

 

[PapaHawk21]

Claiming that Minnesota would beat any of those teams 35-45 times out of 100 is a pipe dream. Besides having "home-field advantage" what is your basis?

 

[GophBen]

Claiming that Minnesota would beat any of those teams 35-45 times out of 100 is a pipe dream. Besides having "home-field advantage" what is your basis?

I think losing 12-0 on the road to a team that's losing some key pieces on the OL, secondary, and LB corps should be a good starting point. And addition by subtraction, too. I would hope that Horton won't be calling fades to 5'nothing" WRs on 4th down.

 

[ruralgopher]

Claiming that Minnesota would beat any of those teams 35-45 times out of 100 is a pipe dream. Besides having "home-field advantage" what is your basis?

PSU is a huge unknown right now, so to claim that they couldn't beat them 45 times out of a 100 is far more ignorant than thinking that they can. USC is a big unknown with the new coach and coming off of a underachieving year. Anybody who has ever played a competitive sport knows that to think that you would beat a rival at about a 45% clip is not unwarranted. So what, exactly, is your basis?

 

[PapaHawk21]

I think losing 12-0 on the road to a team that's losing some key pieces on the OL, secondary, and LB corps should be a good starting point. And addition by subtraction, too. I would hope that Horton won't be calling fades to 5'nothing" WRs on 4th down.

The reason Iowa only scored 12 points is because Adam Robinson got injured in the second quarter and James Vandenberg was starting at QB for the injured Ricky Stanzi. The gopher offense was abysmal. Against Ohio State, PSU and Iowa last season the combined score was 70-7. USC has much more talent than Minnesota. Iowa returns 8 starters on defense and the team's best running back in Jewel Hampton. DJK and McNutt are NFL caliber receivers. We have depth at the o-line position and most analysts still have us ranked in the top 15 for next season. Minnesota, on paper, stands little chance to beat any of the teams mentioned in this discussion. So basically you think this Minnesota team would be PSU, Iowa and USC 4 out of 10 times. Sorry, I don't buy it.

 

[ruralgopher]

The reason Iowa only scored 12 points is because Adam Robinson got injured in the second quarter and James Vandenberg was starting at QB for the injured Ricky Stanzi. The gopher offense was abysmal. Against Ohio State, PSU and Iowa last season the combined score was 70-7. USC has much more talent than Minnesota. Iowa returns 8 starters on defense and the team's best running back in Jewel Hampton. DJK and McNutt are NFL caliber receivers. We have depth at the o-line position and most analysts still have us ranked in the top 15 for next season. Minnesota, on paper, stands little chance to beat any of the teams mentioned in this discussion. So basically you think this Minnesota team would be PSU, Iowa and USC 4 out of 10 times. Sorry, I don't buy it.

Nobody asked you to 'buy' it. I could care less what IA fans think. You asked for my basis, I gave it to you.

 

[PapaHawk21]

Well I respect your opinion, but feel that your basis is quite weak. Your argument is not supported by the numbers.

 

[PapaHawk21]

You could care less what IA fans think? Yeah that is a really mature statement. I may not be a fan of the gophers but I have a common respect for fans across the big10 and their opinions.

 

[mplsbadger]

Claiming that Minnesota would beat any of those teams 35-45 times out of 100 is a pipe dream. Besides having "home-field advantage" what is your basis?

Recognize that at 35% probability the likelihood of a sweep is 1.5%. Is that too much to ask?

The premise of the question was the fact that beating these four teams is going to be difficult. Otherwise I would have asked about South Dakota or Northern Illinois.

Be flattered that your club is on the former list and not the latter.

 

[ruralgopher]

This...

How on earth do you come to this conclusion? Every team on mentioned here is clearly better coached and has more talent. Brewster has yet to win a rivalry game and has defeated one team in his tenure that finished in the top half of the big10.

Followed by This...

Claiming that Minnesota would beat any of those teams 35-45 times out of 100 is a pipe dream. Besides having "home-field advantage" what is your basis?

Followed by this...

The reason Iowa only scored 12 points is because Adam Robinson got injured in the second quarter and James Vandenberg was starting at QB for the injured Ricky Stanzi. The gopher offense was abysmal. Against Ohio State, PSU and Iowa last season the combined score was 70-7. USC has much more talent than Minnesota. Iowa returns 8 starters on defense and the team's best running back in Jewel Hampton. DJK and McNutt are NFL caliber receivers. We have depth at the o-line position and most analysts still have us ranked in the top 15 for next season. Minnesota, on paper, stands little chance to beat any of the teams mentioned in this discussion. So basically you think this Minnesota team would be PSU, Iowa and USC 4 out of 10 times. Sorry, I don't buy it.

Doesn't sound like this...

You could care less what IA fans think? Yeah that is a really mature statement. I may not be a fan of the gophers but I have a common respect for fans across the big10 and their opinions.

This thread is one that is predominantly based on opinions. To say that the numbers don't back up a prediction is a pretty wierd statement since we are predicting next year.

 

[PapaHawk21]

Well, of course, we are making predictions so yes it is an opinion, a projection if you will. Based on the information we do know about the teams and recent history the likelihood that Minnesota would beat PSU, USC and Iowa, on average, 4 times out of 10 seems quite high. When you breakdown the teams on paper, I find it difficult to come up with your prediction. Iowa, PSU and USC, broken down position by position are in almost all cases better than Minnesota on paper. Could the on the field results be different? It is possible, but based on what we know I find your prediction lacking in foundation.

 

[ruralgopher]

Well, of course, we are making predictions so yes it is an opinion, a projection if you will. Based on the information we do know about the teams and recent history the likelihood that Minnesota would beat PSU, USC and Iowa, on average, 4 times out of 10 seems quite high. When you breakdown the teams on paper, I find it difficult to come up with your prediction. Iowa, PSU and USC, broken down position by position are in almost all cases better than Minnesota on paper. Could the on the field results be different? It is possible, but based on what we know I find your prediction lacking in foundation.

Many expected USC to be national champs, and few predicted that IA would be in a BCS bowl this year either. That is, as they say, why they play the game.

 

[ruralgopher]

Just out of curiousity, why didn't NW make this list? They certainly appear to be in the upper echelon of BT teams.

 

[mplsbadger]

Just out of curiousity, why didn't NW make this list? They certainly appear to be in the upper echelon of BT teams.

Perhaps they should have been on the list. I left them off becasue Kafka graduates and the Gophers beat them in Evanston last year.