Here is why we will be 8-4 this fall

diefirma

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Small improvements in a lot of different areas will add up to a couple more Big 10 wins next year. Here are some areas where I expect impovement.

Philip Nelson will be a little bit better than last fall. He will be a year older and will have another spring practice and fall practice and the 4 non- conference games to improve. I thought he was fairly accurate last year when he had the time. The game should slow down for him a little bit this fall. Not as much as it will his Junior or senior years but, for him, the game should seem slower than last year. He will also be physically stronger than last year – better able keep from getting worn down.

The offensive line will be somewhat better. I thought last year was a fluke injury wise. This year I expect the line to be mostly intact and better - perhaps a lot better. This should result in a better passing and running game and help the defense. Perhaps one of the red shirt linemen will blossom.

The passing game will be a little better partly because of one and two above but also because I think Crawford-Tufts, McDonald, Harbison and perhaps Carter and Jones can all get down the field which opens up a lot of space underneath for guys like Wolitarsky, Engel and Fruechte. Because the game will be slower for Nelson, and he will have a little bit more time I expect Nelson to be more accurate. Last fall there were times when the QB and the receivers were using different play books. I expect that to be greatly reduced this year.

The running game will be a little better because the line will be better. Williams and Kirkwood will still be slammers and perhaps a little bit better. Somewhere between Edwards, Cobb, Wright, Gillum, and Maye we could and should find the shifty game breaker that we need.

Limegrover can put in more of his offense. If you remember the bowl game, Minnesota ran the “Maryland I” with Henry, a tight end and running back lined directly behind Nelson. In two seasons I don't think we had ever seen that before and in the first half TT was very ineffective in trying to defend it. I know some of you don't think much of Limegrover but in every game I can remember he has had wide receivers running free. No matter what AJ's mom's best friend thinks, he was not running free because of his great speed. He was open because of the scheme. The fact that it happened in multiple games, if not all, shows that Limegrover was calling plays specific to the team they were playing. Some teams, like Michigan had such great secondary speed they were able to quickly recover but the receivers were still open for a little bit. Also because the running game will be a little bit better the play action pass should work a little bit better as well.

The defense might be better. I am a little worried about linebacker but... we will see. I think the D line will be better and the coaches seem to think they will be fine in the secondary. Coach Claeys mentioned that he felt if the defense had played a little bit better the team could have won two or three more games. He didn't mention what games but my candidates would be Iowa, NW, and Texas Tech. All coaches are optimistic so lets assume that if the defense had played better they could have won only one more game. Claeys seemed to think they would play better next year.

Miscellaneous After the bowl game Kill said he was proud of how hard the team played. They were finally getting it. Apparently many/most of the team got right back to work after the bowl game. I think this is a big deal. If you remember the Northern Illinois game where they beat us, that NI team played hard from start to finish Once they got ahead they didn't let up and in the beginning when they were behind they did not let up.

The team will understand the offense and defense better which allows the coaches to make adjustments at halftime that the players understand. In the bowl game the team adjusted at half time and shut down several TT drives which they had not been able to do in the first half. We can talk about 5 star players all we want but having a 2 star in the right place at the right time beats having a 5 star way out of position.

Maybe the punting will be better and more consistent.

Maybe the kickoffs will go into the end zone every time.

Bottom Line Small improvements in a lot of areas will make a big difference next year. I think the offense will improve enough to win one more game and the same with the defense. Final record 8-4 with wins over Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Indiana and the 4 non conference games. Maybe we get lucky and have an upset as well for a 9-3 season. We are due!

Discuss.
 

I agree pretty much with everything you wrote.
They will stumble at some point during the season when we don't expect it.
So along with your 1-upset scenario, I also see us getting upset as well, which makes it a push...
 

the only part about it i kind of disagree with is the defense. i kind of expect them to regress in the secondary with (hopefully) the LBs we brought in stepping up to make the run game slightly better so I view it as a wash or slight regression overall. i agree with everything about the offense though.
I feel like the hugest area of improvement will be in the intangibles. an additional year of the same staff preaching that same intensity we saw in the TT game plus extra time with the playbook will only help. I expect less stupid formational type infractions as well. all in all this should translate to a better on field product and hopefully at least 7 wins.
9 wins this year is definitely a realistic goal if we see the same progression we've seen as long as we stay healthy.
 

Nice analysis diefirma. Just a few comments...
Small improvements in a lot of different areas will add up to a couple more Big 10 wins next year. Here are some areas where I expect impovement.

Philip Nelson will be a little bit better than last fall. He will be a year older and will have another spring practice and fall practice and the 4 non- conference games to improve. I thought he was fairly accurate last year when he had the time. The game should slow down for him a little bit this fall. Not as much as it will his Junior or senior years but, for him, the game should seem slower than last year. He will also be physically stronger than last year – better able keep from getting worn down. I hope that this happens, your logic is sound

The offensive line will be somewhat better. I thought last year was a fluke injury wise. This year I expect the line to be mostly intact and better - perhaps a lot better. This should result in a better passing and running game and help the defense. Perhaps one of the red shirt linemen will blossom. I think that offensive line is the most likely position to be injured per person-play. Last year our number of injuries at that position was an outlier, I would predict fewer injuries this year

The running game will be a little better because the line will be better. Williams and Kirkwood will still be slammers and perhaps a little bit better. Somewhere between Edwards, Cobb, Wright, Gillum, and Maye we could and should find the shifty game breaker that we need. Yes, we need a gamebreaker, do we have one in that group, I'm not optimistic, but let's hope

Limegrover can put in more of his offense. If you remember the bowl game, Minnesota ran the “Maryland I” with Henry, a tight end and running back lined directly behind Nelson. In two seasons I don't think we had ever seen that before and in the first half TT was very ineffective in trying to defend it. I know some of you don't think much of Limegrover but in every game I can remember he has had wide receivers running free. No matter what AJ's mom's best friend thinks, he was not running free because of his great speed. He was open because of the scheme. The fact that it happened in multiple games, if not all, shows that Limegrover was calling plays specific to the team they were playing. Some teams, like Michigan had such great secondary speed they were able to quickly recover but the receivers were still open for a little bit. Also because the running game will be a little bit better the play action pass should work a little bit better as well. For the most part I like Limegrover's playcalling, I also hope that he has some more options to work with next year

The defense might be better. I am a little worried about linebacker but... we will see. I think the D line will be better and the coaches seem to think they will be fine in the secondary. Coach Claeys mentioned that he felt if the defense had played a little bit better the team could have won two or three more games. He didn't mention what games but my candidates would be Iowa, NW, and Texas Tech. All coaches are optimistic so lets assume that if the defense had played better they could have won only one more game. Claeys seemed to think they would play better next year. I like the 1/2 time adjustments that Claeys frequently makes. Clearly football is a team sport, but I think that it was more the offense than the defense that could have won the TT game. If they make one (maybe it would have taken 2) more first downs late in the 4th quarter, we win. Of course a big stop in the 4th by the D would also have won it.

The team will understand the offense and defense better which allows the coaches to make adjustments at halftime that the players understand. In the bowl game the team adjusted at half time and shut down several TT drives which they had not been able to do in the first half. We can talk about 5 star players all we want but having a 2 star in the right place at the right time beats having a 5 star way out of position. After 2 years they had better understand the O and D that the coaches have implemented

Bottom Line Small improvements in a lot of areas will make a big difference next year. I think the offense will improve enough to win one more game and the same with the defense. Final record 8-4 with wins over Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Indiana and the 4 non conference games. Maybe we get lucky and have an upset as well for a 9-3 season. We are due! I hope that you are correct! We have been due for a long time, the stars will have to align. Go Gophers!

Discuss.
x
 

We need a MLB ( maybe the JC transfer ) to step up. I see he has lost some weight
and Kill said he is very fast. If the defense is going to improve, we need to be strong in the middle.
I hope DT Johnson is 100% after surgery. He was becoming our best run stuffer. Iowa ran all over us with that big back because Ralis couldn't release from the block. If the two JC backers don't see any time, in other words, not in the rotation I will be extremely worried. JC players are recruited to play immediately, especially if they're 2 year players. You want 8 wins, you stop the run.
 


We will be better at linebacker due to addition by subtraction
 

This what I've been saying for a while now, essentially. I don't think 8 wins is out of the question, although not an expectation.

Primary reasons: The offense WILL move the ball more effectively and sustain longer drives. In the process, the defense will be on the field quite a bit less than it was in 2012. Also, on both sides of the ball, there will be more 3rd and 4th year starters than there has been in recent memory. Key Stat that I would love to see after next season but will probably be too lazy to do the homework: If 2013 is a successful campaign, I would love to see the comparison of offensive and defensive plays for each game and the season, between 2012 and 2013.

Barring significant injuries, particularly on the O-Line (again), this team will finally look like a Big Ten football team in 2013. With the Offensive Line finally looking more PHYSICALLY like a typical Big Ten team, I would expect the injuries along the line to be significantly less in future seasons.

Continuity. Same system, same coaching staff. I would also expect the penalties to drop down even more next year. Finished 7th in the BT this year in penalty yardage, and averaged 6.23 penalties per game over 13 games, but in the last 4 games, they had just 5 (against Illinois), 4 (Nebraska), 1 (MSU), and 7 against TTU, which was a physical and hotly contested game. I'd like to see that average UNDER 5 penalties per game in 2013.

There are reasons for optimism, no doubt about it.
 

I definitely think 8-4 is possible, and would be happy with that result next season.

I feel pretty good about sweeping the non-conference schedule and beating Indiana/Iowa.

If that's the case I think we could win one of Northwestern/Sparty, and one from either Penn State/Wisconsin.

Nebraska and Michigan are going to be more competitive but I don't think we are that far yet.
 

I would be ecstatic with 8-4. If Kill does that he'll be the most popular guy in the Twin Cities.
 



IMO, 8-4 is attainable but 7-5 is more realistic. The WR LB LB corps, and secondary need to surpass last year's level of play. Hopefully Andre, DCT, MJ, Fruechte, and Harbison will finally come through and not have to burn any redshirts. The Gophers are no doubt a much improved team. But, how are they going to stack up against the rest of the B1G?
 

The fact alone that we will finally be able to play a RB that has the ability to actually take one to the house might win at least one more game for us.
 


'hope springs eternal'

Yep, we are in that beautiful time of year when bad teams are all ready to turn the corner and contend all across the country. Incoming freshman are destined for stardom and returning players will take the next step to greatness.

Every year most of those places end up being disappointed but there are always a few that pull it off. Here's hoping we are one of those cases. If all the things the OP laid out happen that would certainly bode well for the team and the future. 8-4 would be a dream season for this program right now and a clear indication that Jerry Kill is the guy to get it done around here.
 



I haven't been thinking that this would be the year we turn the corner, but I did think 6-8 wins was our realistic range.

So if I had to bet on a number, I'd pick seven. Eight wins would make most of us very happy.
 

I agree with almost all of the points. I am not sure that will translate to 8-4, but I don't think that's "crazy talk".

We should be able to run the football, our OL is finally going to be the age of normal offense lines (SR - OT in Olson, 2 JRs in Epping and T. Olson), this is a pretty decent group and they should be able to run the ball a bit.

I actually think our defense should be just as good, if not better. We do replace some LBers but they aren't exactly filling big shoes. No disrespect to Mike Rallis or K. Cooper, but I feel better about replacing average players. Aaron Hill was our best LB last year, he'll be back and hopefully we can get something from these new guys.

As far as the defensive backs, I'm not too concerned. Wells will thrive at the boundary corner, our safeties are solid and I liked what we got from Shabazz last year. If Murray, Baltazar, Boddy and Co. can provide any depth, we'll be fine.

The big worry is the same as last year for me, we need to find someone who can get open consistently. Nelson will be improved, we should be able to run the ball, but if we can't find a WR who can get open, we're going to struggle offensively again.
 

I have really enjoyed reading this thread. I have to agree with the OP that 8-4 is most definitely attainable. I expect our O-Line to be very stout this year and to really be a very consistent spot for our Offense. I feel just as good about our D. I am not overly concerned with our corners as Wells should transition back nicely (assuming he actually does go back to Corner with everything that is being said).

My main concern, like Bob_Loblaw, is finding someone who will be that go to guy in the receiving game. I think either Engel or Fruechte (sp?) could be that sort of receiver from some of the things I saw last year, maybe Harbison as well depending on how he rehabs. Someone who can just get open on a consistent basis is what we really need in the receiving game. If we have someone who can step up like that, I think our offense will really take off!
 

Hats off to you fellows who have been through this for 30-40 yrs. i get kinda reusse like reading these posts but hope the team can go 8-4 in 2013. I mean i have been on the band wagon since the early 90s and my rose colored glasses are scratched and chipped. thinking about getting rose colored lasik.
 

I agree with almost all of the points. I am not sure that will translate to 8-4, but I don't think that's "crazy talk".

We should be able to run the football, our OL is finally going to be the age of normal offense lines (SR - OT in Olson, 2 JRs in Epping and T. Olson), this is a pretty decent group and they should be able to run the ball a bit.

I actually think our defense should be just as good, if not better. We do replace some LBers but they aren't exactly filling big shoes. No disrespect to Mike Rallis or K. Cooper, but I feel better about replacing average players. Aaron Hill was our best LB last year, he'll be back and hopefully we can get something from these new guys.

As far as the defensive backs, I'm not too concerned. Wells will thrive at the boundary corner, our safeties are solid and I liked what we got from Shabazz last year. If Murray, Baltazar, Boddy and Co. can provide any depth, we'll be fine.

The big worry is the same as last year for me, we need to find someone who can get open consistently. Nelson will be improved, we should be able to run the ball, but if we can't find a WR who can get open, we're going to struggle offensively again.

Agree on almost all counts, with one small caveat being that even though the O-Line will look a lot MORE like the "age for normal offensive lines", there will still likely just be one SR starting. 2014 will most likely field the most experienced and strongest O-Line in over almost a decade (at least since Setterstrom and Eslinger).

For some odd reason, I'm not that concerned about the WR spot (although admittedly I said the same thing last year). Easy to forget, aside from not being a very experienced bunch to begin with, that they felt the impact of the effects of 3 different starting QB's as much or more than any other position on the team. Some continuity under center will help them SIGNIFICANTLY. Timing is different, everyone throws a different ball, different angles, et al.

I still think 2014 is the "true" breakout season, where I would expect more along the lines of 8-9 wins, but I think if a few things go RIGHT (that would be a change!) next season, 8 is possible, with 7 maybe being more likely.
 

don't forget about jojuan harper at running back. he was the most impressive back in spring practice 2012.
 

Agree on almost all counts, with one small caveat being that even though the O-Line will look a lot MORE like the "age for normal offensive lines", there will still likely just be one SR starting. 2014 will most likely field the most experienced and strongest O-Line in over almost a decade (at least since Setterstrom and Eslinger).

For some odd reason, I'm not that concerned about the WR spot (although admittedly I said the same thing last year). Easy to forget, aside from not being a very experienced bunch to begin with, that they felt the impact of the effects of 3 different starting QB's as much or more than any other position on the team. Some continuity under center will help them SIGNIFICANTLY. Timing is different, everyone throws a different ball, different angles, et al.

I still think 2014 is the "true" breakout season, where I would expect more along the lines of 8-9 wins, but I think if a few things go RIGHT (that would be a change!) next season, 8 is possible, with 7 maybe being more likely.


The rotating QB's didn't help but I seriously doubt we have any elite talent at the WR position right now. We have guys that can get open from time to time but I don't see anyone in that group that would scare an opposing defense or make them adjust what they were doing to stop him from getting the ball.

If we can run the ball consistently next year that will soften up the secondary and hopefully open up the passing game but we still need a weapon to emerge out there as that go-to-guy when the chips are down and you need a big play. I can see a few guys on the roster that might be that guy but none of them have proven they will be that guy yet in the Gopher career.
 

Agree on almost all counts, with one small caveat being that even though the O-Line will look a lot MORE like the "age for normal offensive lines", there will still likely just be one SR starting. 2014 will most likely field the most experienced and strongest O-Line in over almost a decade (at least since Setterstrom and Eslinger).

For some odd reason, I'm not that concerned about the WR spot (although admittedly I said the same thing last year). Easy to forget, aside from not being a very experienced bunch to begin with, that they felt the impact of the effects of 3 different starting QB's as much or more than any other position on the team. Some continuity under center will help them SIGNIFICANTLY. Timing is different, everyone throws a different ball, different angles, et al.

I still think 2014 is the "true" breakout season, where I would expect more along the lines of 8-9 wins, but I think if a few things go RIGHT (that would be a change!) next season, 8 is possible, with 7 maybe being more likely.

You're right, we still will be on the young end. If Mottla is starting at C it will be two seniors and two juniors, but you're right, we won't be the age of an average OL until next season.

The WR's it's hard, they have a talented group of people, it just concerns me because we haven't seen it yet.
 

don't forget about jojuan harper at running back. he was the most impressive back in spring practice 2012.

I went to some of the practices and I never came out with that impression, but I've heard other people say the same thing (so I could be wrong). Another guy who played a lot in the bowl game is Cole Banham, he will be a slot/scat back in the mold of KJ Maye.
 

The rotating QB's didn't help but I seriously doubt we have any elite talent at the WR position right now. We have guys that can get open from time to time but I don't see anyone in that group that would scare an opposing defense or make them adjust what they were doing to stop him from getting the ball.

If we can run the ball consistently next year that will soften up the secondary and hopefully open up the passing game but we still need a weapon to emerge out there as that go-to-guy when the chips are down and you need a big play. I can see a few guys on the roster that might be that guy but none of them have proven they will be that guy yet in the Gopher career.

Kill/Limegrover never had "that guy" at NIU either, most of this offense is based on the running game setting up playaction and misdirection routes. In essence, when the running game is going as it should, the WR's just need to catch the ball when it's thrown to them.

Overall, if the O-line and running game can produce, and I mean really produce, as in run for 200+ against B1G opponents, then everything else from the QB to the WR position, to the defense, to the special teams, and the program's record will be better.

Run the ball, hit the open play action route.
Run the ball, catch the play action pass when you're open
Run the ball, keep the D off the field
Run the ball, grind the other team's D
Run the ball and you win 8-9, if we can't we'll still sit at 6-7, but with some question marks.
 

Kill/Limegrover never had "that guy" at NIU either, most of this offense is based on the running game setting up playaction and misdirection routes. In essence, when the running game is going as it should, the WR's just need to catch the ball when it's thrown to them.

Overall, if the O-line and running game can produce, and I mean really produce, as in run for 200+ against B1G opponents, then everything else from the QB to the WR position, to the defense, to the special teams, and the program's record will be better.

Run the ball, hit the open play action route.
Run the ball, catch the play action pass when you're open
Run the ball, keep the D off the field
Run the ball, grind the other team's D
Run the ball and you win 8-9, if we can't we'll still sit at 6-7, but with some question marks.

Agreed, easier said than done but yeah a dominant run game lessons the need for game breakers at the WR position. Mason never had a great crop of WR but he still had some very good players come through here during his 10 years at the WR position.

What we are all waiting to find out is if Kill's/Limegrover's offense can work consistently at this level. It definitely worked in the MAC but the Big Ten is a whole different animal.
 

Agreed, easier said than done but yeah a dominant run game lessons the need for game breakers at the WR position. Mason never had a great crop of WR but he still had some very good players come through here during his 10 years at the WR position.

What we are all waiting to find out is if Kill's/Limegrover's offense can work consistently at this level. It definitely worked in the MAC but the Big Ten is a whole different animal.

Players make offenses work. Just my .02
 

Players make offenses work. Just my .02

Good point. What I should have probably said is: We are still waiting to find out if Kill and his staff can recruit the kind of players that can make Kill/Limegrover's offense work consistently at this level. They definitely could recruit those players and it worked in the MAC but the Big Ten is a whole different Animal.
 




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