Heading into B1G season, it's time for a Sagarin Prediction update

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Gopher07

Gopher07

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Yes, I'm back (for now) with an update on our Sagarin ratings and computer-predicted results. As always, I take the PREDICTOR score and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites.

Spreads are all relative to the Gophers (negative means the Gophers are favorites, positive means the Gophers are underdogs).

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2013/team/

Without further ado...

vs Iowa -1.5
@ Michigan +13
@ Northwestern +10.5
vs Nebraska +4
@ Indiana +9
vs Penn State +4.5
vs Wisconsin +7
@ Michigan State +10

Predicted Record 5-7 (1-7)

Likely toss-ups (within 6 points): vs Iowa, vs Nebraska, vs Penn State
Likely losses (>6 point difference): @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Indiana, vs Wisconsin, @ MSU

Can't say I disagree with the prediction too much, although I do think right now the Indiana and MSU spreads are a little wonky (in the opposition's favor). If I had to guess I'd say our best chances for wins the rest of the way are against Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State and home.

Is it Saturday yet?
 

Those will change after we embarrass Iowa.
 

Thanks for jumping back in. I always believed these posts were very interesting, especially the movement over the course of the year.
 

Unregistered User said:
Thanks for jumping back in. I always believed these posts were very interesting, especially the movement over the course of the year.
Click to expand...

Thanks. Decided to wait a few weeks this year as I've had pushback in the past for doing them too early - Sagarin bases their ratings somewhat arbitrarily until more connections are made between teams, which made for some big swings in week-to-week data in the first couple weeks the past few years.
 

Indiana +9! WTF??

Gophers are listed as that one dude's "wild card" in the conference race. 1-7 is a joker card that fell under the table.
 


Schnauzer said:
Indiana +9! WTF??

Gophers are listed as that one dude's "wild card" in the conference race. 1-7 is a joker card that fell under the table.
Click to expand...

Indiana is definitely helped in that they've played a tougher schedule than us (#72 vs #184), and that it's in Indiana. The home field number is high this year, +5.23 - meaning if the game were played at TCF it would be viewed as a tossup/slight edge to the Gophers.
 

Models I use have the Gophers about where they were to start the season: toss up between 6 and 7 wins (2 to 3 wins in the Big Ten). I think that sounds fair. 4 wins would be great. 2 would disappoint people. 3 would be decent.
 


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