Gophers really do have a tough schedule

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Great Plains Gopher

Great Plains Gopher

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Tough call because teams like Colorado and Indiana looked good in a crazy Covid year, but road games against Colorado (coach of the year, running back player of the year), Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa will be tough. Plus Ohio State, Maryland, and Wisconsin - maybe Nebraska, too, will be tough at home. 6-6 might be a good record.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Tough call because teams like Colorado and Indiana looked good in a crazy Covid year, but road games against Colorado (coach of the year, running back player of the year), Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa will be tough. Plus Ohio State, Maryland, and Wisconsin - maybe Nebraska, too, will be tough at home. 6-6 might be a good record.
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no. 6-6 is an unacceptable record with how much talent they're bringing back.
 

It's a pretty even conference. The Gophs are head and shoulders above every team but anything can happen on any given day. 11-1 heading into the BT title game against Rutgers.
 

As special teams (kicking included) and defensive secondary go, so will the Gophers' fortunes. Those are potential areas of exploitation if they are not working on all cylinders. The Gophers want to be on the winning side of close games.
 

The Gophers will beat OSU on September 2, win the West and have a rematch with OSU in the Big Ten Championship game and lose, but will go the Rose Bowl.
 



Rickman55 said:
The Gophers will beat OSU on September 2, win the West and have a rematch with OSU in the Big Ten Championship game and lose, but will go the Rose Bowl.
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It would be better if those were reversed.
 

hungan1 said:
As special teams (kicking included) and defensive secondary go, so will the Gophers' fortunes. Those are potential areas of exploitation if they are not working on all cylinders. The Gophers want to be on the winning side of close games.
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Yes. The gophers do want to win close games. Very good insight.
 




It always comes down to how deep the talent is, for injuries are inevitable, how well the assistant coaches have done teaching the players and game day behavior of the HC.
This is a big year for Fleck because all the players are his recruits and there is a lot of happy talk by him about how talented the team is.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Tough call because teams like Colorado and Indiana looked good in a crazy Covid year, but road games against Colorado (coach of the year, running back player of the year), Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa will be tough. Plus Ohio State, Maryland, and Wisconsin - maybe Nebraska, too, will be tough at home. 6-6 might be a good record.
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I agree that they have a tough schedule but 6-6 would be a real disappointment.

I guess if I am going to pick a recent comparable of a veteran Gopher team with a pretty tough schedule as viewed from the preseason, I would go with the 2014 team. That team had 3 preseason top 25 teams (OSU, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) on its schedule but it also had 12-1 TCU that wasn't ranked in the preseason poll but was ranked #3 in the final AP poll. Those Gophers went 8-4 with losses to OSU, Wisconsin, TCU, and an upset loss to Illinois.

The current team has preseason ranked OSU, Wisconsin, Indiana, and Iowa on its schedule so the schedule is fairly comparable to 2014. In terms of personnel, this team has a deeper and more experienced offensive line and a better and more tested quarterback. The running backs situation is similar although I think Mo is a bit better than David Cobb was (although Cobb caught more passes). In hindsight, we could say that the 2014 team probably had a more tested and proven defense entering the season and a more experienced group of receivers.

I think even with a tough schedule, anything less than the 8-4 record achieved by the 2014 team would be disappointing. If we had that regular season record but managed to win our bowl game, we'd have a more successful season than the 2014 team.
 

This team has more talent and depth than it has had in decades. If they don't compete for the division title this year, I don't know when they will.
 

jonnyganas said:
This team has more talent and depth than it has had in decades. If they don't compete for the division title this year, I don't know when they will.
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Compete for the division title, sure, but I'm not confident in saying that they'll equal or approach 2019.

We know they have more talent and depth in the offensive line than they've had in a very long time. We know that they have one of their best and most experienced quarterbacks this century but we don't know how effective the backups would be if he were hurt. We know that they have a very good and experienced running back but we're not sure how well the running backs would do if he had to miss some time. Place kicking clearly should improve over the last two seasons.

Their talent and depth in other areas still is subject to verification. The defense improved as the season progressed last year, at least one injured player is returning, and additional key personnel were added in the offseason but we still don't know just how good the defense will be. I'm not ready to say yet that they will approach Iowa level defense or even the defense of the best Kill/Claeys teams. If CAB is out for the initial games, we don't know for sure how talented and deep the remaining receivers will be. And, of course, there is always the troublesome area of special teams (other than place kicking where a proven player was recruited).

And, going back to the original poster's point (the schedule), the most successful Gopher teams in recent history (2016 and 2019) had easier schedules than this one.
 



Okay, just off the cuff.

Ohio State at home. LOSE 34-21. (0-1)
Miami of Ohio. Win 34-21. (1-1)
At Colorado. LOSE 21-20. (1-2)
Bowling Green - Win 34-21 (2-2)
@ Purdue - Win 21-17 (3-2)
Nebraska - We choke and LOSE 31-17 (3-3)
Maryland - Win 31-14 (4-3)
@ Northwestern - Win 24-10 (5-3)
Illinois - Win 21-17 (6-3)
@ Iowa - Win 21-17 (7-3)
@ Indiana - Win 21-17 (8-3)
Wisconsin - Win 21-17 (9-3)

Total record 9-3.

Play Texas A&M in some bowl game.
 

Face The Facts said:
Okay, just off the cuff.

Ohio State at home. LOSE 34-21. (0-1)
Miami of Ohio. Win 34-21. (1-1)
At Colorado. LOSE 21-20. (1-2)
Bowling Green - Win 34-21 (2-2)
@ Purdue - Win 21-17 (3-2)
Nebraska - We choke and LOSE 31-17 (3-3)
Maryland - Win 31-14 (4-3)
@ Northwestern - Win 24-10 (5-3)
Illinois - Win 21-17 (6-3)
@ Iowa - Win 21-17 (7-3)
@ Indiana - Win 21-17 (8-3)
Wisconsin - Win 21-17 (9-3)

Total record 9-3.

Play Texas A&M in some bowl game.
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I can't get past your NE prediction to enjoy the Iowa and Wisconsin wins :(
 

Face The Facts said:
Okay, just off the cuff.

Ohio State at home. LOSE 34-21. (0-1)
Miami of Ohio. Win 34-21. (1-1)
At Colorado. LOSE 21-20. (1-2)
Bowling Green - Win 34-21 (2-2)
@ Purdue - Win 21-17 (3-2)
Nebraska - We choke and LOSE 31-17 (3-3)
Maryland - Win 31-14 (4-3)
@ Northwestern - Win 24-10 (5-3)
Illinois - Win 21-17 (6-3)
@ Iowa - Win 21-17 (7-3)
@ Indiana - Win 21-17 (8-3)
Wisconsin - Win 21-17 (9-3)

Total record 9-3.

Play Texas A&M in some bowl game.
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I disagree with some of those predictions, but it does pretty much prove my contention that the season really comes down to the last three games. Win the last three, and we can withstand few upset losses earlier in the season. Win the last three and avoid early upsets ... whew!
 


I think most teams on the Gopher schedule have fans that are evaluating their own schedules who are saying "Minnesota is going to be a tough game" (if they are at all realistic). Just because the Gophers play some talented teams does not automatically mean they have to get lucky to find 6 wins. This is not the Gophers of the 1990's

edit to add: This raises an interesting question: Do fans of schools like Alabama, Ohio State, etc. ever see their schedule as "tough"?
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Tough call because teams like Colorado and Indiana looked good in a crazy Covid year, but road games against Colorado (coach of the year, running back player of the year), Northwestern, Indiana and Iowa will be tough. Plus Ohio State, Maryland, and Wisconsin - maybe Nebraska, too, will be tough at home. 6-6 might be a good record.
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If we're being honest, then the Gophers have had a series of very easy schedules basically the entire time Fleck has been here. He's played Ohio State once and Michigan twice in four years, and the only Power 5 OOC opponent was Oregon State in 2017. The Gophers schedules over the next several years are basically going back to what they should be. They should still be better than 6-6.
 
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Face The Facts said:
Okay, just off the cuff.

Ohio State at home. LOSE 34-21. (0-1)
Miami of Ohio. Win 34-21. (1-1)
At Colorado. LOSE 21-20. (1-2)
Bowling Green - Win 34-21 (2-2)
@ Purdue - Win 21-17 (3-2)
Nebraska - We choke and LOSE 31-17 (3-3)
Maryland - Win 31-14 (4-3)
@ Northwestern - Win 24-10 (5-3)
Illinois - Win 21-17 (6-3)
@ Iowa - Win 21-17 (7-3)
@ Indiana - Win 21-17 (8-3)
Wisconsin - Win 21-17 (9-3)

Total record 9-3.

Play Texas A&M in some bowl game.
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It would be spectacularly amazing for Gophs to score 21, 31, or 34 points in all games.
 

Based on Connelly numbers, Gophers will be favored in Boulder by 10. Not a tough game.
 

Gophers 11 point faves in Evanston on Connelly numbers. Not a tough game.
 


Gophers 9 plus point faves vs Maryland on Connelly. Not a tough game.

Ohio State (8 point dogs), Iowa (6 point dogs), WI (4 point dogs) Indiana (1 point dogs) on paper are only games you should enter year concerned about....first week games can be extremely hard to play by odds; love our chance vs OSU. Love our experience, depth, emerging youth, emerging transfers, improved special teams, stable coaching staff to be fully in place by time we face IA, IN, WI Nov 13, 20 and 27.
 

Phil Steele had Gophs 4th easiest of 14. Connelly has them 3rd easiest schedule of 14 in Big Ten.

 
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