Gophers Open -31.5

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Never take a fleck team -20 or more

They just had the most dominating performance in years and wouldn’t have covered -30


The problem with a fleck team -30 is the first drive of the game and first quarter might end at the same time
 

I swore that I'm never giving more than 14 in a Gopher game as long as Fleck and Sanford are here.

They totally can demolish a foe, but the foot goes off the gas at a lower margin than a World Cup soccer match
 



Fleck’s body of work here at Minnesota has grown to the point where I’d rather bet on the number of sky-is-falling threads on Gopherhole next Saturday night after an uncomfortably close win over Bowling Green than I would on a 30 point spread.

As others have said, the system just seems to be set up to “get through” games with inferior opponents more than it is to pound them. I was throwing up my hands in outrage over the disappointing early season wins in 2019 (and last week) as much as the next guy. But, this has now happened enough times and over a long enough span of time to assume the sky will be falling and calls for heads will be common after Bowling Green.

I wouldn’t bet on anything over a 12 point spread between a Fleck coached team and a group of 5 opponent.
 

I saw a little of the Bowling Green game. They looked as bad as advertised. They had trouble with Murray State which is in the FCS Division.
 




Teams Gophers have beaten by 32+ points with PJ:

@Oregon State 48-14 (2017)
Nebraska 54-21 (2017)
New Mexico St 48-10 (2018)
@Rutgers 42-7 (2019)
Maryland 52-10 (2019)
 


RogueGopher said:
Teams Gophers have beaten by 32+ points with PJ:

@Oregon State 48-14 (2017)
Nebraska 54-21 (2017)
New Mexico St 48-10 (2018)
@Rutgers 42-7 (2019)
Maryland 52-10 (2019)
Click to expand...

In each of those game our point spread had more to do with the other teams lack of execution than it was play calling to drive up scores. We will pound the ball and work on various run formations to expand what we can do there. If the opposing them can't execute simple gap coverage and/or has poor tackling we will score big. This really is are only chance because Fleck will not put the pedal on the gas to dominate an opponent.

Our only hope is that Fleck goes into this game realizing our passing attach needs a confidence booster and/or we need to work on pass blocking. Then we may see a 30+ point spread being covered.
 

Might beat 30 point spread if our defense scores a couple TDs. Otherwise questionable.
 



Taking the Gophers plus 31.5 is a bad decision. That's not Fleck football although it's not outside the realm of possibility. Actually betting on football games is the truly bad decision.
 

RogueGopher said:
Teams Gophers have beaten by 32+ points with PJ:

@Oregon State 48-14 (2017)
Nebraska 54-21 (2017)
New Mexico St 48-10 (2018)
@Rutgers 42-7 (2019)
Maryland 52-10 (2019)
Click to expand...
I was at 4 of these games. I’ll be there Saturday. Gophers cover.
 

BroncoRedux said:
Taking the Gophers plus 31.5 is a bad decision. That's not Fleck football although it's not outside the realm of possibility. Actually betting on football games is the truly bad decision.
Click to expand...
At 31 I gotta think a lot is up to the whims of the coach.
 

Gophs won't cover. It will be a 10-20 point win. Game plans will be ultra conservative, there will be many players shuffling in and out, and thus the performance will be lackluster on its face. There will be a thread about firing the O-coordinator and how lost the defense looks. That's a lock.
 

Taking a -not-so-great Bowling Green team vs. the Gophers is tough to do. Vegas has overcorrected the Gophers to the positive side, though. If the Gophers had barely gotten by Colorado the line might be around 17-20 points. I think the Gophers absolutely could crush this team, but I think Fleck holds back here, preferring to rest his top players going into the Big Ten season and play a lot of players. I think a 38-10 win sounds about right. I think it's too many points and if forced to bet this game, I would take the Falcons to cover.
 

gophernut1 said:
In each of those game our point spread had more to do with the other teams lack of execution than it was play calling to drive up scores. We will pound the ball and work on various run formations to expand what we can do there. If the opposing them can't execute simple gap coverage and/or has poor tackling we will score big. This really is are only chance because Fleck will not put the pedal on the gas to dominate an opponent.

Our only hope is that Fleck goes into this game realizing our passing attach needs a confidence booster and/or we need to work on pass blocking. Then we may see a 30+ point spread being covered.
Click to expand...
I think you will see a very vanilla game plan and a healthy dose of 4 maybe 5 RB's pounding the ball. I do not think he will go to the air unless really forced to (meaning Bowling Green shuts down the RB game and keeps it close. This one should be by the book all the way. In fact, I would not be surprised if he shuts down the passing game altogether in the second half, just as he did against Miami (OH)
 

With so many people saying there’s no chance the Gophers cover, it makes me want to hammer -31.5…

Also, it’s kind of impressive that most of those blowouts were against B1G/P5 teams.
 

matt said:
With so many people saying there’s no chance the Gophers cover, it makes me want to hammer -31.5…

Also, it’s kind of impressive that most of those blowouts were against B1G/P5 teams.
Click to expand...

I think there's a chance, but I don't expect PJ & Co to go all out necessarily unless we break their will outright.

That's kinda what happens in most of these blow outs IMO.
 

matt said:
With so many people saying there’s no chance the Gophers cover, it makes me want to hammer -31.5…
Click to expand...
If you don't take that, they'll win by 35.

If you do, then Fleck will suddenly decide it's time for backups to get some reps, and win by 31.

That's how that works.
 

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