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Dano564

Dano564

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Gophers are currently outside looking in.
They basically need three wins in a row to get a bid at this stage.
All is not lost however as this team had over-achieved for what most thought they would do. Also, I've expected more of a run out of other teams than what this Gopher team could provide. This team has some talent, but it's not the style team where you'd expect an NCAA run. I know the NIT stinks compared to the NCAA, but I'm finding less and less teams that have that have a weaker resume than the Gophers, and the Gophers have run out of games to improve substantially.
Their best hope has been to cling to a deteriorating RPI ranking which has steadily dropped this week without them playing getting passed by other bubble teams, with only back-to-back games against Penn St to help boost it which won't do much... not to mention, they might only split those two games which would drive them to the NIT.
 


Beat Penn State, Penn State/Purdue and beat Wisky/Sparty and were in. Three of the four mentioned we've beaten, the other one we took to Ot and Mathieu got hosed on the no call at the buzzer. It's not easy, but these guys can do it.
 


bemidjigopher said:
Beat Penn State, Penn State/Purdue and beat Wisky/Sparty and were in. Three of the four mentioned we've beaten, the other one we took to Ot and Mathieu got hosed on the no call at the buzzer. It's not easy, but these guys can do it.
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That's it.
I like this team, and I like a couple of the player a lot, but I'm not sure this team has it in them.
This isn't the type of Gopher team that makes me think they have a run in them. I thought last years team had more ability to "beat anyone any given night", than this team does.
I could be wrong, but it would take Andre and Dre putting the team on their backs with some hot shooting from 3 from Smith I think to pull off a run.

Be a great story if they pull it off.

The good news is I don't think there is an 800 lb gorilla on the Big Ten this year. I still think MSU is the best when healthy which they now appear to be.
 



Face The Facts said:
That's it.
I like this team, and I like a couple of the player a lot, but I'm not sure this team has it in them.
This isn't the type of Gopher team that makes me think they have a run in them. I thought last years team had more ability to "beat anyone any given night", than this team does.
I could be wrong, but it would take Andre and Dre putting the team on their backs with some hot shooting from 3 from Smith I think to pull off a run.

Be a great story if they pull it off.

The good news is I don't think there is an 800 lb gorilla on the Big Ten this year. I still think MSU is the best when healthy which they now appear to be.
Click to expand...

I can agree with that of course if you think about it we will be favored in our next two, take care of business and you only need to win once. I don't think they'll advance beyond Saturday, but it would be fun to see them make a run like in 2010
 

I am just not too confident about this team winning multiply games in a tournament, they really struggled after the Syracuse game. Playing a big time oppenant will require some game planning, and if you game plan ahead to that game you might catch youself overlooking your 1st round game, which wont be an easy task in itself, but who knows, maybe they learned from the regular season tourney we were in.
 

So our #1 board optimist picks tonight, when nothing really bad happened, to lose faith? Two wins will probably leave us no better than 50/50. But all the bubble teams have at least 2 more games to play. Chances are things are not going to break nearly as badly as they did Tuesday and Wednesday. Beat PSU and go from there.
 



howeda7 said:
So our #1 board optimist picks tonight, when nothing really bad happened, to lose faith? Two wins will probably leave us no better than 50/50. But all the bubble teams have at least 2 more games to play. Chances are things are not going to break nearly as badly as they did Tuesday and Wednesday. Beat PSU and go from there.
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I'm thinking 2 wins and we're squarely on the bubble as well. Would be at 9-11 and 20 wins overall, with an RPI around 40-45. Sounds in to me.
 

GuyFawkes said:
I am just not too confident about this team winning multiply games in a tournament, they really struggled after the Syracuse game. Playing a big time oppenant will require some game planning, and if you game plan ahead to that game you might catch youself overlooking your 1st round game, which wont be an easy task in itself, but who knows, maybe they learned from the regular season tourney we were in.
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Playing seven guys may have had something to do with it. Plus all 12 conference teams have extensively scouted each other at this point.
 


mcal24 said:
I'm thinking 2 wins and we're squarely on the bubble as well. Would be at 9-11 and 20 wins overall, with an RPI around 40-45. Sounds in to me.
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That would be a good enough RPI, yes. That said, the team should be playing this one possession at a time with a goal of not losing again until April. Straight ahead until they gun you down.
 



This type of post is my pet peeve. It's the "realistic" view that takes the most pessimistic view and assumes it as fact. I'll use Jerry Palm's bracket which has Minnesota first among the first four out and pick several teams "in" who Minnesota stacks up comparably to.

Minnesota: 18-12 overall, 1-5 vs RPI top 25, 2-3 vs RPI 26-50,

Best RPI wins: 5 Wisconsin, 27 Ohio State, 38 Iowa


Missouri: 21-9 overall, 1-2 vs RPI top 25, 1-0, RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 21 UCLA, 46 Tennessee, 55 Arkansas

*Missouri plays at Tennessee this weekend

Xavier: 20-11 overall, 2-2 vs RPI top 25, 1-2 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 7 Creighton, 15 Cincinnati, 56 Tennessee

Providence: 20-10 overall, 1-4 vs RPI top 25, 1-1 RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 7 Creighton, 44 Xavier, 56 Georgetown

*Providence plays at Creighton this weekend

St Josephs: 21-8 overall, 2-4 vs RPI top 25, 2-1 RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 13 UMass, 14 VCU, 43 Dayton

Gonzaga 25-6 overall, 0-0 vs RPI top 25, 1-4 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 34 BYU, 55 Arkansas, 60 St Marys

Stanford: 18-11 overall, 1-4 vs RPI top 25, 3-3 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 21 UCLA, 29 UConn, 31 Oregon

Pittsburgh: 22-8 overall, 0-6 vs RPI top 25, 1-0 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 47 Stanford, 61 NC State, 67 Clemson


That's 7 teams currently in the tournament that have resumes that are not all that different than Minnesota's. I am more concerned with Minnesota beating Penn State on Sunday than I am with the bubble as it becomes irrelevant without a "W" that is far from a sure thing. The games that really hurt Minnesota over the past 7 days or so were the gift win Oregon got over a short handed UCLA team and Dayton's win at St Louis. I can't make a case for Minnesota over either of those teams anymore while L's by either put them in the same boat as the Gophers. What will be interesting is what the committee does with teams like Gonzaga and Pittsburgh who have yet to beat anyone of note.

Key games this weekend:

Utah at Stanford: "L" drops Stanford behind Minnesota if they are not already
Pittsburgh at Clemson: "L" drops Pittsburgh behind Minnesota if they are not already
Providence at Creighton: "L" drops Providence behind Minnesota if they are not already
Missouri at Tennessee: "L" drops Missouri out, BUT could catapult Tennessee ahead of the Gophers
Arkansas at Alabama: Unlikely bad "L" here drops Arkansas in to a similar/worse sport than the Gophers
LaSalle at St Jospeh's : Unlikely bad "L" here drops St Joe's behind Minnesota
Wisconsin at Nebraska: Win solidifies Huskers position, loss drops them back to the pack
Penn State at Minnesota: None of this matters at all if Minnesota loses this game

I understand the negativity because almost everything has broken against the Gophers this week, but that doesn't mean it will continue to do so. With just an expected showing from the bubble this weekend, I think you'll see Minnesota among the last four in on Monday morning. If the bubble does a 180 and a bunch of things fall the Gophers way, they could be out of the play in round on Monday morning.

I'd like the Gophers chances against some of their fellow bubble teams more than I do against Penn State on Sunday. Penn State is simply playing a lot better than their record suggests.
 



EG#9 said:
This type of post is my pet peeve. It's the "realistic" view that takes the most pessimistic view and assumes it as fact. I'll use Jerry Palm's bracket which has Minnesota first among the first four out and pick several teams "in" who Minnesota stacks up comparably to.

Minnesota: 18-12 overall, 1-5 vs RPI top 25, 2-3 vs RPI 26-50,

Best RPI wins: 5 Wisconsin, 27 Ohio State, 38 Iowa


Missouri: 21-9 overall, 1-2 vs RPI top 25, 1-0, RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 21 UCLA, 46 Tennessee, 55 Arkansas

*Missouri plays at Tennessee this weekend

Xavier: 20-11 overall, 2-2 vs RPI top 25, 1-2 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 7 Creighton, 15 Cincinnati, 56 Tennessee

Providence: 20-10 overall, 1-4 vs RPI top 25, 1-1 RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 7 Creighton, 44 Xavier, 56 Georgetown

*Providence plays at Creighton this weekend

St Josephs: 21-8 overall, 2-4 vs RPI top 25, 2-1 RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 13 UMass, 14 VCU, 43 Dayton

Gonzaga 25-6 overall, 0-0 vs RPI top 25, 1-4 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 34 BYU, 55 Arkansas, 60 St Marys

Stanford: 18-11 overall, 1-4 vs RPI top 25, 3-3 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 21 UCLA, 29 UConn, 31 Oregon

Pittsburgh: 22-8 overall, 0-6 vs RPI top 25, 1-0 vs RPI 26-50

Best RPI wins: 47 Stanford, 61 NC State, 67 Clemson


That's 7 teams currently in the tournament that have resumes that are not all that different than Minnesota's. I am more concerned with Minnesota beating Penn State on Sunday than I am with the bubble as it becomes irrelevant without a "W" that is far from a sure thing. The games that really hurt Minnesota over the past 7 days or so were the gift win Oregon got over a short handed UCLA team and Dayton's win at St Louis. I can't make a case for Minnesota over either of those teams anymore while L's by either put them in the same boat as the Gophers. What will be interesting is what the committee does with teams like Gonzaga and Pittsburgh who have yet to beat anyone of note.

Key games this weekend:

Utah at Stanford: "L" drops Stanford behind Minnesota if they are not already
Pittsburgh at Clemson: "L" drops Pittsburgh behind Minnesota if they are not already
Providence at Creighton: "L" drops Providence behind Minnesota if they are not already
Missouri at Tennessee: "L" drops Missouri out, BUT could catapult Tennessee ahead of the Gophers
Arkansas at Alabama: Unlikely bad "L" here drops Arkansas in to a similar/worse sport than the Gophers
LaSalle at St Jospeh's : Unlikely bad "L" here drops St Joe's behind Minnesota
Wisconsin at Nebraska: Win solidifies Huskers position, loss drops them back to the pack
Penn State at Minnesota: None of this matters at all if Minnesota loses this game

I understand the negativity because almost everything has broken against the Gophers this week, but that doesn't mean it will continue to do so. With just an expected showing from the bubble this weekend, I think you'll see Minnesota among the last four in on Monday morning. If the bubble does a 180 and a bunch of things fall the Gophers way, they could be out of the play in round on Monday morning.

I'd like the Gophers chances against some of their fellow bubble teams more than I do against Penn State on Sunday. Penn State is simply playing a lot better than their record suggests.
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Good post. Win the next two and we should at least have a shot depending on what other teams do. Win 3 and we're in, unless something crazy happens.
 

Illinois is Gophers' most likely opponent if in 7-10 game

Assuming the Gophers beat Penn State (not a safe assumption at all), Illinois is our most likely opponent in the 7-10 game, which is a good thing. Illini the only potential top-100 opponent we could play on Thursday.

This weekend. ...

Gophers beat Penn State.
Iowa beats Illinois in Iowa City.
Purdue beats Northwestern in West Lafayette.

= Illinois, Penn State, Purdue all 6-12 and tied for 9th.

Tiebreaker (head to head)
Purdue 2-1 (earns #9 seed with head-to-head win over Illinois)
Illinois 2-1 (earns #10 seed with sweep of Penn State)
Penn State 1-3 (#11)

Survive & advance by beating Penn State, then let's see what we can do in Indy. Gophers chances to make the NCAA are far from gloom & doom. The bubble is fluid; it changes every day.
 

EG#9 said:
Key games this weekend:

Utah at Stanford: "L" drops Stanford behind Minnesota if they are not already
Pittsburgh at Clemson: "L" drops Pittsburgh behind Minnesota if they are not already
Providence at Creighton: "L" drops Providence behind Minnesota if they are not already
Missouri at Tennessee: "L" drops Missouri out, BUT could catapult Tennessee ahead of the Gophers
Arkansas at Alabama: Unlikely bad "L" here drops Arkansas in to a similar/worse sport than the Gophers
LaSalle at St Jospeh's : Unlikely bad "L" here drops St Joe's behind Minnesota
Wisconsin at Nebraska: Win solidifies Huskers position, loss drops them back to the pack
Penn State at Minnesota: None of this matters at all if Minnesota loses this game
Click to expand...

Really shows how tight it is. Win three though and the other games don't matter. An extra week of recovery for Andre, they should be rested going into the weekend and next week for the B1G tournament hopefully they can win three straight and lessen the impact of what others do. They are going to need some significant bench contributions to do it though, Buggs again, maybe Smith getting hot or??
 

SelectionSunday said:
Assuming the Gophers beat Penn State (not a safe assumption at all), Illinois is our most likely opponent in the 7-10 game, which is a good thing. Illini the only potential top-100 opponent we could play on Thursday.

This weekend. ...

Gophers beat Penn State.
Iowa beats Illinois in Iowa City.
Purdue beats Northwestern in West Lafayette.

= Illinois, Penn State, Purdue all 6-12 and tied for 9th.

Tiebreaker (head to head)
Purdue 2-1 (earns #9 seed with head-to-head win over Illinois)
Illinois 2-1 (earns #10 seed with sweep of Penn State)
Penn State 1-3 (#11)

Survive & advance by beating Penn State, then let's see what we can do in Indy. Gophers chances to make the NCAA are far from gloom & doom. The bubble is fluid; it changes every day.
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I don't believe a 3-way tiebreaker works like that. Illinois and Purdue are both 2-1 against the other two teams in the group, and PSU is 1-2 so PSU is #11. Since Illinois and Purdue's record is both 2-1, the next tiebreaker is record against the top teams. Illinois beat MSU. If MSU finishes above Nebraska (which they do with a win or Nebraska loss) then Illinois gets #9. If Nebraska finishes ahead, both Purdue and Illinois are 1-1 against the Huskers and we drop back down to MSU which Illinois beat so they still get #9.

I think it's very likely we'll play Purdue round 1.

It's possible I got all of this wrong if I'm interpreting 3-way tiebreakers incorrectly.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
 

jaymil said:
I don't believe a 3-way tiebreaker works like that. Illinois and Purdue are both 2-1 against the other two teams in the group, and PSU is 1-2 so PSU is #11. Since Illinois and Purdue's record is both 2-1, the next tiebreaker is record against the top teams. Illinois beat MSU. If MSU finishes above Nebraska (which they do with a win or Nebraska loss) then Illinois gets #9. If Nebraska finishes ahead, both Purdue and Illinois are 1-1 against the Huskers and we drop back down to MSU which Illinois beat so they still get #9.

I think it's very likely we'll play Purdue round 1.

It's possible I got all of this wrong if I'm interpreting 3-way tiebreakers incorrectly.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
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I thought it went like this too. Any other 3-way experts out there?
 

Hopefully the Gophs can go on the kind of run that leaves the committee no choice. At the end of the day, whatever happens we should not blame either the committee or the "luck" of other games this week not falling our way. We lost some games to bad teams, and we lost some games because of stupid and avoidable mistakes (those two categories aren't mutually exclusive). When all is said and done, we had plenty of opportunities to seal the deal and leave us nowhere near the bubble had we taken care of business against the likes of Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois. We are left sweating it out because we didn't get it done in those games. I hope we end up on the right side, and I hope we go on a run, but at the end of the day we get what we deserve this season.

That said, it has been a fun season with a new coach that is leaving me optimistic for the next few years regardless of how it shakes out this year.
 


jaymil said:
I don't believe a 3-way tiebreaker works like that. Illinois and Purdue are both 2-1 against the other two teams in the group, and PSU is 1-2 so PSU is #11. Since Illinois and Purdue's record is both 2-1, the next tiebreaker is record against the top teams. Illinois beat MSU. If MSU finishes above Nebraska (which they do with a win or Nebraska loss) then Illinois gets #9. If Nebraska finishes ahead, both Purdue and Illinois are 1-1 against the Huskers and we drop back down to MSU which Illinois beat so they still get #9.

I think it's very likely we'll play Purdue round 1.

It's possible I got all of this wrong if I'm interpreting 3-way tiebreakers incorrectly.

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html
Click to expand...

It's also very possible I misinterpreted it. After re-reading the 3-way tiebreaker (below), I'm even more confused. Now I hope this scenario plays out just so we'll find out who'd be the #9 and #10 between Purdue/Illinois.
_______________________________________________________
(per Big Ten)
B. Multiple team tie:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). (This gets us to Illinois and Purdue both 2-1)

(this is where I get confused)

b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s). (top team is not determined because Illinois & Purdue are tied at 2-1 with Penn State eliminated, so wouldn't/shouldn't it revert back to Illinois vs. Purdue head-to-head to determine the top team, which would favor Purdue & make the Boilers the #9 seed?)

(this is where I see how you came up with Purdue as the #10 seed)

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

I'm doing too much hand-wringing over a 9 and 10 seed, but I really want to play Illinois! They will not beat the Gophers a second time.
 

Huh, that's interesting. I looked at those rules and interpreted them the same way (although they're not terribly clear). I had always thought that once you break the original 3-way tie, then you start over with the two team tiebreakers which would be head to head, but that doesn't seem the case.
 


bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Hopefully the Gophs can go on the kind of run that leaves the committee no choice. At the end of the day, whatever happens we should not blame either the committee or the "luck" of other games this week not falling our way. We lost some games to bad teams, and we lost some games because of stupid and avoidable mistakes (those two categories aren't mutually exclusive). When all is said and done, we had plenty of opportunities to seal the deal and leave us nowhere near the bubble had we taken care of business against the likes of Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois. We are left sweating it out because we didn't get it done in those games. I hope we end up on the right side, and I hope we go on a run, but at the end of the day we get what we deserve this season.

That said, it has been a fun season with a new coach that is leaving me optimistic for the next few years regardless of how it shakes out this year.
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Great post. I agree. +201
 



SelectionSunday said:
It's also very possible I misinterpreted it. After re-reading the 3-way tiebreaker (below), I'm even more confused. Now I hope this scenario plays out just so we'll find out who'd be the #9 and #10 between Purdue/Illinois.
_______________________________________________________
(per Big Ten)
B. Multiple team tie:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0). (This gets us to Illinois and Purdue both 2-1)

(this is where I get confused)

b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s). (top team is not determined because Illinois & Purdue are tied at 2-1 with Penn State eliminated, so wouldn't/shouldn't it revert back to Illinois vs. Purdue head-to-head to determine the top team, which would favor Purdue & make the Boilers the #9 seed?)

(this is where I see how you came up with Purdue as the #10 seed)

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

I'm doing too much hand-wringing over a 9 and 10 seed, but I really want to play Illinois! They will not beat the Gophers a second time.
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I'm with you on wanting to play Illinois. They are the one team that could actually give us a boost with just 2 wins because of their RPI being 77 (as of today). Plus- I think we match up great.
 

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