Gophers football game-by-game look shows the difficulty — and the major opportunities (MN win probability: 50% vs both Iowa and wisconsin)

BleedGopher · Aug 9, 2024

Per Randy:

Here’s a look at the Gophers schedule, which begins Aug. 29 with a solid nonconference matchup at Huntington Bank Stadium and ends the day after Thanksgiving in Madison, Wis.:

Aug. 29 vs. North Carolina, 7 p.m.

The skinny: QB Drake Maye is off to the New England Patriots, and in his place is Max Johnson, a transfer from Texas A&M via LSU and the son of former Vikings QB Brad Johnson. The Tar Heels run game is in the capable hands of Omarion Hampton, a 1,500-yard rusher last year.
Did you know? The Tar Heels closed 2023 with losses in five of their final seven games to finish 8-5.
Gophers win probability: 55%. Minnesota needs to be much better on third downs than its 3-for-12 showing at UNC last year.

Sept. 7 vs. Rhode Island, 11 a.m.

The skinny: The Rams, 6-5 last year, open the season with Holy Cross, then play the Gophers, before games against Campbell, Long Island and Hampton. Clearly, this is Rhode Island’s Super Bowl.
Did you know? Rhode Island has bragging rights over Gophers QB Max Brosmer, whose 2023 New Hampshire team lost 34-28 in double overtime to the Rams.
Gophers win probability: 90%. Rhode Island hasn’t advanced to the FCS playoffs since 1985.

Sept. 14 vs. Nevada, 2:30 p.m.

The skinny: The Wolf Pack, coming off back-to-back 2-10 seasons, have a new coach in Jeff Choate, the former Texas offensive coordinator and Montana State head coach. He’ll need to work wonders to get his team to a bowl game.
Did you know? Former Minnehaha Academy edge rusher Kaden Johnson transferred to Nevada after four years at Wisconsin.
Gophers win probability: 80%. A 3-0 start would add spice to the Iowa matchup.

Sept. 21 vs. Iowa, TBD

The skinny: New Hawkeyes offensive coordinator Tim Lester replacing Brian Ferentz is addition by subtraction, and a healthy QB Cade McNamara should supply an offensive threat.
Did you know? Cooper DeJean’s invalid fair catch signal wiped out Iowa’s go-ahead punt return for a TD late in the fourth quarter of the Gophers’ 12-10 win last year.
Gophers win probability: 50%. The past three games in this series have been decided by a combined 10 points.

Sept. 28 at Michigan, TBD

The skinny: The defending national champion Wolverines lost 13 players to the NFL draft, and coach Jim Harbaugh left for the Chargers ahead of the NCAA posse. A Big Ten title four-peat seems unlikely, but a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff isn’t out of the question.
Did you know? The Gophers’ last three wins vs. Michigan — 1977, ’86 and 2014 — have been in Ann Arbor.
Gophers win probability: 25%. Good luck running against the Michigan DT duo of Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.

Oct. 5 vs. USC, TBD

The skinny: Miller Moss likely will take over for No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams at QB for the Trojans. The key is improvement on defense, after USC dipped heavily into the transfer portal.
Did you know? The Gophers have beaten the Trojans only once — 25-19 in 1955.
Gophers win probability: 40%. Minnesota is one of 11 bowl teams from last season on USC’s schedule.

Oct. 12 at UCLA, TBD

The skinny: The Gophers will play in Rose Bowl stadium for the first time since Jan. 1, 1962, when they beat UCLA 21-3. The Bruins pursued Gophers coach P.J. Fleck to replace Chip Kelly before settling on former star RB DeShaun Foster.
Did you know? UCLA plays LSU, Oregon and Penn State in successive weeks before facing the Gophers.
Gophers win probability: 55%. Minnesota fans will travel in droves to this game.

Oct. 26 vs. Maryland, TBD

The skinny: Gone is three-year starting QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who passed for more than 11,000 yards in his Terrapins career. Likely in his place is transfer MJ Morris, who went 3-1 as N.C. State’s starter last year, then redshirted.
Did you know? The Gophers and Terps have split their past six meetings.
Gophers win probability: 60%. Gophers have averaged 43.3 points in their past three vs. Terps.

Nov. 2 at Illinois, TBD

The skinny: The Fighting Illini have become a thorn in Minnesota’s side, winning the past three in the series. For that to change, the Gophers must find offensive balance.
Did you know? Illinois coach Bret Bielema is 10-0 vs. Minnesota, including 7-0 with Wisconsin.
Gophers win probability: 45%. This is a prove-it game for the Gophers.

Nov. 9 at Rutgers, TBD

The skinny: Getcha popcorn ready! Fleck faces his mentor, Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano, plus Rutgers offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca and ex-QB Athan Kaliakmanis, among others.
Did you know? Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai (1,262 yards) led the Big Ten in rushing in 2023.
Gophers win probability: 50%. With eight starters back, Rutgers defense should be stingy.

Nov. 23 vs. Penn State, TBD

The skinny: The Nittany Lions make their first visit to Minneapolis since 2019, when Rashod Bateman and Co. led the Gophers’ 31-26 upset win and fans stormed the field.
Did you know? The Gophers and Nittany Lions have split the past 12 games in the series.
Gophers win probability: 35%. Penn State has the talent to make the College Football Playoff field.

Nov. 29 at Wisconsin, 11 a.m.

The skinny: Since Fleck took over in 2017, this has been a much better rivalry, with the Gophers securing Paul Bunyan’s Axe three times in seven attempts.
Did you know? This game will be played on Black Friday.
Gophers win probability: 50%. Minnesota has won in two of its past three trips to Madison.