Gophers finishing 6th in the B1G?

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Gopher07

Gopher07

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After last night we might have the best shot, given our remaining schedule and what the other teams in our range have left:

Minnesota:
vs Penn State
@ Nebraska
@ Purdue

Illinois:
vs Nebraska
@ Iowa
@ Ohio State

Iowa:
vs Purdue
@ Indiana
vs Illinois
vs Nebraska

Purdue:
@ Iowa
@ Wisconsin
vs Michigan
vs Minnesota

We're the only team out of the 6th-9th group that doesn't play a team in the 1st-5th group the rest of the way. We still have to take care of our business - but if you were making the odds in Vegas, you'd probably say we have the best shot to win out.

The difference between finishing 6th and finishing 9th is pretty big in terms of first-round matchup at the BTT. Finish 6th and we're up against the #11 team - Nebraska or Northwestern. Finish 9th and we're up against 8th place, one of the teams above. The 8/9 winner goes on to play #1 in the next round (probably Indiana) while the 6/11 winner goes on to play #3 in the next round (potentially Wisconsin, MSU, Ohio State or Michigan).

Last night was great and we'll never forget it - but the next three will be big in determining how much momentum we really have heading into the big dance. Looking forward to it. Beat Penn State.
 

Wherever we finish, Northwestern is the team I want the Gophers to draw on Thursday. 1-3-1 zone or not, NW is completely decimated with its injuries. They were not a good ball club when the Gophers lost to 'em, and they're a lot worse now (without Swopshire). Not to mention, I'd think the Gophers would be properly motivated to put a beatdown on the Wildcats. ... they're the ones who started our skid.
 

Does anyone know how they break the tie in the event there is one? I agree 6 seed is huge, but let's not forget, we lost to potential 11 seed Northwestern and beat potential 1 seed Indiana. At this point, we won't get the bye, so we just need to play our best basketball and we can give ourselves a chance to win, or at least do serious damage. There are tradeoffs in everything, if we get tougher matchups, we have more opportunities to impress the selection committee.
 

First tiebreaker is always head to head. If still tied, then start comparing tied teams by how they did vs. the #1 team, the #2, the #3, until the tie is broken. Gophers are likely to have an edge over Illinois or Iowa in any tie because we beat Indiana (Illinois did, Iowa hasn't), Michigan State (neither of them did), and Wisconsin (Illinois didn't, Iowa & us split with Badgers). Basically we don't want any tiebreakers that involve how the tied teams did vs. Michigan or Ohio State.

Link is for B1G tiebreaking procedures:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/110512aac.html
 

I just hope that whoever we draw in the BTT can better prepare us for the NCAA's. I actually hope that the game is close and we have to work a little for a win.
 


tmvander said:
I just hope that whoever we draw in the BTT can better prepare us for the NCAA's. I actually hope that the game is close and we have to work a little for a win.
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We've had plenty of perparation for the NCAA tourney, both in the Bahamas and the Big Ten season. Give me a nice, comfortable victory on Thursday in Chicago, please! Because from the quarterfinals on, the BTT will be nothing but top-shelf opponents.
 

I think it's amazing how one game can change how we view things. Before last night, I think most people were just hoping to get to 8 wins. Now 10-8 is a real possibility. I know it's not a sure thing by any means, but definitely doable.
 

Very true GophersinIowa. I think we are all hoping that last night's win is the start of a good run of ball again from this team. Even the really good teams are going to have a slump during some point in the season (probably not as long as the one our team has had), but the timing couldn't be better for this team to get on a roll again.
 

The season is certainly still salvageable. Get to .500, dare I say even win out and we could be looking at 5 or 6 seed and a real shot at the sweet 16.
 



I want NW first round of the BTT, and Wisconsin in the 2nd.

A rubber match with Sparty in the semis would be exciting.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I think it's amazing how one game can change how we view things. Before last night, I think most people were just hoping to get to 8 wins. Now 10-8 is a real possibility. I know it's not a sure thing by any means, but definitely doable.
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Took the words out of my mouth. 10-8 is indeed a possibility, and it's a probable outcome IF the team plays the way they can. If that's the way it plays out, it doesn't matter who they draw in the BTT. They won't need a win there, so they can play loose, and they'd be on a roll and capable of beating anyone.
 

SelectionSunday said:
First tiebreaker is always head to head. If still tied, then start comparing tied teams by how they did vs. the #1 team, the #2, the #3, until the tie is broken. Gophers are likely to have an edge over Illinois or Iowa in any tie because we beat Indiana (Illinois did, Iowa hasn't), Michigan State (neither of them did), and Wisconsin (Illinois didn't, Iowa & us split with Badgers). Basically we don't want any tiebreakers that involve how the tied teams did vs. Michigan or Ohio State.

Link is for B1G tiebreaking procedures:

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/110512aac.html
Click to expand...

If I am understanding this correctly, Illinois has the advantage for the tiebreaker at the moment because Indiana has an outright lead in the standings (Illinois will be 1-0 and the Gophers will be 1-1 v. Illinois - winning percentage is what counts). For the gophers to win the tiebreaker, Indiana would have to lose at least one more and finish in a tie (they still play @ Michigan so it is realistic).

Or we could just finish ahead of Illinois outright!
 

My bad. Good catch on the Illini. Yes, the fact Illinois only played IU once could end up getting them a tiebreaker over the Gophers. Obviously the best scenario for the Gophers is Michigan State winning the title (or getting the #1 seed), but I don't think that's happenin' with the schedule Sparty has left and the way Keith Appling is struggling right now.
 



I think Purdue is going to lose their last 4 games in a row. Even if they normally could have given us a good game, after losing the first 3 in a row, I think that they are going to come out with the attitude of lets just get this season overwith and get into the BTT and hope for the best there. I mean, that won't be their conscience plan, but subconsciencely I think that is the kind of attitude they'll have.


Iowa, in my opinion, has the best shot at getting to 10-8, but I could see the Illini beating them. So not sure where that would put Illinois? I think we finish 10-8, Iowa would be 9-9, Purdue would be 6-10? And Illinois?
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
I think Purdue is going to lose their last 4 games in a row. Even if they normally could have given us a good game, after losing the first 3 in a row, I think that they are going to come out with the attitude of lets just get this season overwith and get into the BTT and hope for the best there. I mean, that won't be their conscience plan, but subconsciencely I think that is the kind of attitude they'll have.


Iowa, in my opinion, has the best shot at getting to 10-8, but I could see the Illini beating them. So not sure where that would put Illinois? I think we finish 10-8, Iowa would be 9-9, Purdue would be 6-10? And Illinois?
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Illinois is 7-8 and has Nebraska, @ Iowa, and @ Ohio State left, I would guess they finish 9-9.
 

Looks like if we just take care of business, 6th place might be ours for the taking. Sure it won't be as easy as we'd all like it to be, but playing at home vs PSU and on the road vs Nebraska has to be easier than playing on the road in Iowa and Ohio St, etc..
 

#1nHkyCfbBsbDncSolarDebat said:
I think Purdue is going to lose their last 4 games in a row. Even if they normally could have given us a good game, after losing the first 3 in a row, I think that they are going to come out with the attitude of lets just get this season overwith and get into the BTT and hope for the best there. I mean, that won't be their conscience plan, but subconsciencely I think that is the kind of attitude they'll have.


Iowa, in my opinion, has the best shot at getting to 10-8, but I could see the Illini beating them. So not sure where that would put Illinois? I think we finish 10-8, Iowa would be 9-9, Purdue would be 6-10? And Illinois?
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But then we will come out flat and lose to them....

You need to keep a notepad of all of your views to help keep them straight... You contradict yourself more than the POTUS.
 

Gophers and Iowa can finish no higher than the 6th seed. They both lose tiebreakers to Michigan and Ohio State.

Illinois could get as high as 4th seed if Ohio State loses out and Illinois wins out. Illinois would lose tiebreaker to Michigan.

If Gophers, Iowa and Illinois all win out...well that can't happen since Illinois and Iowa play each other.

If both Gophers and Illinois win out, Illinois gets tiebreaker (1-0 against Indiana).

If both Gophers and Iowa win out, Iowa gets tiebreaker (would be 1-0 against Illinois).

So, for Gophers to get the 6th seed, we need one of the two following scenarios:
- Gophers win out. Winner of Illinois/Iowa game drops another game.
- Gophers go 2-1. Winner of Illinois/Iowa drops other 2 games. Loser of Illinois/Iowa game drops another game.

If Gophers beat Purdue (regardless of what else they do), they are guaranteed at least the 8th seed.

Based on all of that...I think the following
- 5% chance the Gophers get the 6th seed
- 45% chance the Gophers get the 7th seed
- 45% chance the Gophers get the 8th seed
- 5% chance the Gophers get the 9th seed
 

brucekaupa said:
If both Gophers and Iowa win out, Iowa gets tiebreaker (would be 1-0 against Illinois).
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Pretty certain this scenario would work in the Gophers favor. Iowa and the Gophers' record vs. Illinois would be irrelevant, as Illinois would be 9-9 (at best) and not part of the 10-8 tie-break scenario. So after the Gopher-Iowa split doesn't break the tie, then you go to record vs. the #1 team, #2 team, #3 team, etc., until the tie is broken. We would appear to have an advantage there with our win over Michigan State, something Iowa doesn't have.

If the Gophers win out, I like our odds of getting the #6. Looking at remaining schedules, it will be awfully difficult for Illinois (Nebraska, @ Iowa, @ Ohio State) or Iowa (@ Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska) to do the same.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Pretty certain this scenario would work in the Gophers favor. Iowa and the Gophers' record vs. Illinois would be irrelevant, as Illinois would be 9-9 (at best)
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WTF? Who typed my post? You're right. What the heck was I thinkin?
 


brucekaupa said:
Gophers win out. Winner of Illinois/Iowa game drops another game.
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Given that Illinois travels to OSU and Iowa gets Indiana I'm not sure this is so far fetched. Gophers would still have to win out but, if we were to win out, I'd think the odds are in our favor that Illinois and Iowa both drop another game.
 


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