Gopher's Best Chance at B1G Tourney

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GopherGold

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I've been thinking about it and looking at the bracket.

-It is established that we can do no better than a 6th seed. Okay, that's fine.
-Then, that seed plays the 11th seed. That is either NW or Nebraska. The 2nd game of the series is still to come but I will say that Nebraska is the easier draw. The tourney is in Chicago and this could obviously give NW a home court advantage in the United Center. We all know how bad that is.
-2nd round game is against the 3rd seed. Right now it looks like it is up for grabs with four teams tied at 11-5 (MSU, Wisc, Mich, tOSU). Of those 3, the best draw would be Wisconsin in my mind.

Wisc - Two close games when MN was arguably not their best. Most beatable of the 4.
MSU - Sure, we beat MSU but they are playing at an extremely high level now, despite losing to Mich.
tOSU and Mich - I think MN would lack confidence against tOSU and Mich because of the way the previous games turned out.

Now, how does this happen?
We win out. NW gets a win against PSU and Nebraska loses to us and Iowa on the road, making them 11th seed.

MSU plays Wisc and NW, both wins (13-5)
Wisc plays MSU and PSU, split (12-6)
Mich plays Purdue and Ind, split (12-6)
tOSU plays Ind and Ill, they can split or lose out, doesn't matter. All ties go to Wisc for #3 seed.

So, road to Sunday would be Nebraska, Wisconsin, most likely MSU, and probably Indiana or Michigan. "Easiest" route for MN if you ask me based on what I've seen this season.

I tried to make this logic easy to follow. I see this as a very likely senario. Would love to hear other opinions.
 

A few things:

While Northwestern may have been a plucky team early this year, and gave us well-established fits in Evanston, they are much worse now. I would not be surprised if Penn State beats them this week, more injuries have absolutely killed them. Meanwhile, Nebraska is still playing with a lot of fire.

I would not worry about any sort of home-court advantage for the Cats playing in the United Center. They will have one of the smallest fan contingents there.

Main thing for the Gophers is to finish in the 6 or 7 spot, and get NW or Nebraska. A much easier matchup than Iowa or Purdue or Illinois.

I think you are right that the best draw for the Gophers would be Wisconsin in round 2. They could come into the tournament having gone 1-2 in their last 3.
 

I agree that playing Wisconsin in the second round clearly would favor us the most. Michigan State and Ohio State are both beatable as well. We just have to take care of business that first game.

Gophers have done well in this tournament the last few years so confidence should be riding high with them.
 

Gopher07 said:
A few things:

While Northwestern may have been a plucky team early this year, and gave us well-established fits in Evanston, they are much worse now. I would not be surprised if Penn State beats them this week, more injuries have absolutely killed them. Meanwhile, Nebraska is still playing with a lot of fire.

I would not worry about any sort of home-court advantage for the Cats playing in the United Center. They will have one of the smallest fan contingents there.

Main thing for the Gophers is to finish in the 6 or 7 spot, and get NW or Nebraska. A much easier matchup than Iowa or Purdue or Illinois.

I think you are right that the best draw for the Gophers would be Wisconsin in round 2. They could come into the tournament having gone 1-2 in their last 3.
Click to expand...

Definitely agree with you here, would much rather get Nebraska or Northwestern in the first round, but I believe there is only a very small likelihood, if any at all, that we get Illinois in the first round. I think for that to happen, both the Gophers (@Nebraska, @Purdue) and Illini (@Iowa, @Ohio State) would have to drop both of their games this week, with Iowa (Illinois, Nebraska) and Purdue (Michigan, Minnesota) winning both. Not positive, but I'm pretty sure at least most of those things have to happen for us to play Illinois, likely as an 8-9 matchup, in the first round.
 

Cayman said:
Definitely agree with you here, would much rather get Nebraska or Northwestern in the first round, but I believe there is only a very small likelihood, if any at all, that we get Illinois in the first round. I think for that to happen, both the Gophers (@Nebraska, @Purdue) and Illini (@Iowa, @Ohio State) would have to drop both of their games this week, with Iowa (Illinois, Nebraska) and Purdue (Michigan, Minnesota) winning both. Not positive, but I'm pretty sure at least most of those things have to happen for us to play Illinois, likely as an 8-9 matchup, in the first round.
Click to expand...

You're right, if we go 0-2, Illinois goes 0-2, Iowa goes 2-0 and Purdue goes 2-0, it ends up:

6. Iowa 9-9
7. Purdue 9-9
8. Illinois 8-10
9. Minnesota 8-10

However, I'd put the likelihood at higher-than-negligible. Minnesota and Illinois have two away games left, Iowa and Purdue have two home games left. Per rpiforecast.com, here are the odds it happens for each team:

Minnesota 0-2: 8.56%
Illinois 0-2: 53.27%
Iowa 2-0: 58.48%
Purdue: 2-0: 12.93%

However, here's the most likely finishes (again, per rpiforecast.com):
1. Indiana (15-3): 46.24%
2. Michigan State (13-5): 58.78%
3. Wisconsin (12-6): 58.78%
4. Ohio State (12-6): 69.28%
5. Michigan (12-6): 52.49%
6. Minnesota (10-8): 47.07%
7. Iowa (9-9): 58.48%
8. Illinois (8-10): 53.27%
9. Purdue (8-10): 47.26%
10. Northwestern (5-13): 66.07%
11. Nebraska (4-14): 70.78%
12. Penn State (1-17): 59.41%
 


Gopher07 said:
You're right, if we go 0-2, Illinois goes 0-2, Iowa goes 2-0 and Purdue goes 2-0, it ends up:

6. Iowa 9-9
7. Purdue 9-9
8. Illinois 8-10
9. Minnesota 8-10

However, I'd put the likelihood at higher-than-negligible. Minnesota and Illinois have two away games left, Iowa and Purdue have two home games left. Per rpiforecast.com, here are the odds it happens for each team:

Minnesota 0-2: 8.56%
Illinois 0-2: 53.27%
Iowa 2-0: 58.48%
Purdue: 2-0: 12.93%

However, here's the most likely finishes (again, per rpiforecast.com):
1. Indiana (15-3): 46.24%
2. Michigan State (13-5): 58.78%
3. Wisconsin (12-6): 58.78%
4. Ohio State (12-6): 69.28%
5. Michigan (12-6): 52.49%
6. Minnesota (10-8): 47.07%
7. Iowa (9-9): 58.48%
8. Illinois (8-10): 53.27%
9. Purdue (8-10): 47.26%
10. Northwestern (5-13): 66.07%
11. Nebraska (4-14): 70.78%
12. Penn State (1-17): 59.41%
Click to expand...

It's still too early to predict what all the scenarios are. It will be far less murky and confusing to root for certain teams starting this weekend.
 

Any notion of NW having home court advantage in Chicago is a joke.

Neb->Wis would be the two most winnable realistic early round games for us no doubt.

Personally I would like another crack at OSU, even with the beating we took in Columbus, just for revenge's sake.

Any way you look at it though the B1G tourney is outrageous. Potentially having to beat 3 ranked teams in 4 days to win it? I couldn't find a region in any of the projected NCAA brackets that would be more difficult than this setup.
 

Most likely scenario:

1)IU......14-4
2)MSU...13-5
3)Wisc...12-6
4)Mich...12-6
5)OSU...12-6
6)Minn...9-9
7)Iowa...9-9
8)Purdue..8-10
9)Illini.....8-10
10)Neb...5-13
11)NW...4-14
12)PSU..2-16

OSU vs PSU

Minn vs NW

Iowa vs Neb

Pur vs Illini


quarterfinals:

OSU vs Mich
IU vs Pur

Minn vs Wisc
Iowa vs MSU

semifinals:

IU vs Mich

Minn vs MSU

Finals:

IU vs MSU

Winner: IU
 

IF...

we come together, BTT champs is feasable.

Nothing is certain in this years tourney.
 




Nothing would be better than minnesota beating wisconsin in BTT. I want to see an early exit for Bo in the NCAA as well.
 

The idea of Wisconsin finishing ahead of Michigan in the Big 10 this year suggests that not only is Bo Ryan the greatest coach of all time but John Beilein must be one of the worst.
 

sunnyday2 said:
The idea of Wisconsin finishing ahead of Michigan in the Big 10 this year suggests that not only is Bo Ryan the greatest coach of all time but John Beilein must be one of the worst.
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I will stay away from the Ryan red meat, but the attack on Beilen is off, in my opinion. The guy has succeeded everywhere he ahs been and at multiple levels, and when things started bad at Michigan he had the guts to clear the decks on his coaching staff and get some guys who could recruit, and turned that around in a hurry. They have lost some stinkers this year, but he really is playing with an incredibly young team that I think overperformed early in the year and have come back to the mean. Even the dud at Wisconsin where I thought he blew the defensice call at the end, the players were not able to execute and get the foul in time. He is a good coach.
 



Gopher07 said:
However, here's the most likely finishes (again, per rpiforecast.com):
1. Indiana (15-3): 46.24%
2. Michigan State (13-5): 58.78%
3. Wisconsin (12-6): 58.78%
4. Ohio State (12-6): 69.28%
5. Michigan (12-6): 52.49%
6. Minnesota (10-8): 47.07%
7. Iowa (9-9): 58.48%
8. Illinois (8-10): 53.27%
9. Purdue (8-10): 47.26%
10. Northwestern (5-13): 66.07%
11. Nebraska (4-14): 70.78%
12. Penn State (1-17): 59.41%
Click to expand...

If this plays out, and Iowa gets a win in the BTT, would the Big Ten get 8 teams into the tourney? I know Iowa's RPI is bad but 9-9 in this conference is pretty solid. Or would they have to upset someone in the quarterfinals of the BTT to even be considered?

I think Illinois gets in at 8-10 as long as they win the first round game in the BTT. I know this is highly unlikely but if Purdue somehow beats Michigan and Minnesota and everything else above plays out, Illinois would finish 9th in the conference. Has anyone that low in a conference ever been an at-large bid?
 

GophersInIowa said:
If this plays out, and Iowa gets a win in the BTT, would the Big Ten get 8 teams into the tourney? I know Iowa's RPI is bad but 9-9 in this conference is pretty solid. Or would they have to upset someone in the quarterfinals of the BTT to even be considered?

I think Illinois gets in at 8-10 as long as they win the first round game in the BTT. I know this is highly unlikely but if Purdue somehow beats Michigan and Minnesota and everything else above plays out, Illinois would finish 9th in the conference. Has anyone that low in a conference ever been an at-large bid?
Click to expand...

Illinois would have to lose their first-round BTT game to be on the bubble and even then I think they're in. Too many good wins on their resume to leave them out.

Iowa, I just can't see them in the tournament without a four or more game win streak to end the season. With losses to #106, #117 and #170, and their best neutral or road win being over #75 UNI right now, they need more to add to the resume. A win over Illinois tonight would give them another top 50 win (giving them 3 in total), but they'd still be lacking any substance away from Carver-Hawkeye. A win over a top-4 team in the BTT quarterfinals would give them that, though..
 

GophersInIowa said:
If this plays out, and Iowa gets a win in the BTT, would the Big Ten get 8 teams into the tourney? I know Iowa's RPI is bad but 9-9 in this conference is pretty solid. Or would they have to upset someone in the quarterfinals of the BTT to even be considered?

I think Illinois gets in at 8-10 as long as they win the first round game in the BTT. I know this is highly unlikely but if Purdue somehow beats Michigan and Minnesota and everything else above plays out, Illinois would finish 9th in the conference. Has anyone that low in a conference ever been an at-large bid?
Click to expand...

If anyone believes Bilas, here is his 68. From ESPN Insider

1.Indiana
2.Louisville
3.Gonzaga
4.Duke
5.Florida
6.Kansas
7.Georgetown
8.Michigan State
9.Miami
10.Ohio State
11.New Mexico
12.Michigan
13.Oklahoma State
14.Syracuse
15.Kansas State
16.VCU
17.Wisconsin
18.Arizona
19.Marquette
20.Saint Louis
21.North Carolina State
22.Pittsburgh
23.UNLV
24.Creighton
25.Oregon
26.San Diego State
27.Minnesota
28.Virginia
29.UCLA
30.Missouri
31.North Carolina
32.Memphis
33.Colorado State
34.Cincinnati
35.Notre Dame
36.Wichita State
37.Iowa State
38.Saint Mary's
39.Illinois
40.Kentucky
41.Colorado
42.Akron
43.Oklahoma
44.California
45.Butler
46.Belmont
47.Tennessee
48.La Salle
49.Southern Miss
50.Maryland
51.Baylor
52.Iowa
53.Temple
54.Middle Tennessee
55.Arizona State
56.Villanova
57.Stanford
58.Ole Miss
59.Alabama
60.Boise State
61.Arkansas
62.Ohio
63.Davidson
64.Providence
65.Bucknell
66.Louisiana Tech
67.Northern Iowa
68.Dayton
 

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